Intrinsic said:
src said:
Its the other way around.
Xbox hardware and software sales have cratered this generation, while PS4 has reached near record breaking heights. I would not be surprised if PS4 had up to 70% of third party software sales. If you look at JP third party, games like FF and KH had leans of 80+% in the West, meaning combined with PS's dominance in Asia the global share could be as much as 90:10.
Xbox can no longer compete with Playstation on the traditional hardware and software race and so MS went with Gamepass. They will be trying their best to get third party games on GP at launch or close to launch.
Now, low XB software sales means it is easy for companies to go exclusive with Sony but also side with Gamepass as Gamepass is still only relevant in the XB ecosystem (they would only be loosing out on XB sw sales which were low to begin with).
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You really believe that?
Ok... so let's assume that GTA6 is PS5 console exclusive. And sells around 20M units in its first month (for reference GTA5 shipped 29M in 6 weeks).
So 20M is $1.2B in revenue.
You expect to Take 2 to take like $300M - $500M from MS to have that game be on gamepass on day one, and potentially cripple the bulk of that $1.2B in sales the sales on the PS5 but also all future potential PC sales too?
And thats just ONE game. Throw in FF, COD, FIFA, AC, BF, Cyberpunk, ES...etc into that mix too. And how much would MS be paying all these publishers to have their game on gamepass? Cause its not a "your game would have only sold like 1M copies on our platform anyways so there's $120M, that's like 3 times what you would have made from the game's sales on our platform" type argument. Its more like a, "You need to pay us like $500M+ because having our game on gamepass would impact all its sales everywhere else." type discussion.
Its like people can't see what is happening to Netflix.
For gamepads to work, they need to get a majority of those AAA games on day one. Or not, the PS5 wins by default becoming the only console to have most of these games on day one with them coming eventually to gamepass a year or two later.
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As in MS will have the Xbox SKU on GP day 1 alongside its normal release. PS and PC SKUs will release as usual. Can MS spend that money? Absolutely, they have $130 billion in cash reserves alone. Will they do it (does it make financial sense, will investors and the C board allow it)? Highly doubt it.
I think that's ultimately GP's biggest problem and why it won't succeed: third parties have no intention of releasing their games on it at launch, even if they did it would be on their own service, and the option of buying the game will always be there on other more popular platforms.
Netflix and Spotify do not have these fundamental problems (and anyone paying attention to their financials will know both are still struggling to break even, at a point where the sub war is just getting started)
If anything third parties might be against GP in the long term as it means MS is evaluating the worth of their game, instead of the market via sales.
I agree. I think this is Xbox's last stand to try and compete with Playstation. They need to sell GP, so they'll have all their 1st P on GP PC/XBX day 1, which ultimately lowers their hardware and software sales, which in turns makes it harder for them to attract more users to GP. They need to hit a critical mass of subscribers across XB/PC/mobile/tablet before their hardware division collapses and makes it impossible to hit that critical mass.
Sony knows XBX are incredibly weak at the moment, so they are being aggressive to further cut that userbase. XB + PS console sales in each gen usually amount to 170 million, so there's still a lot of room for growth for PS consoles.
