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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGC estimates that the Xbox One sold through 47.8m by May 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

VGC estimates that the Xbox One sold through 47.8m by May 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 50 million 199 20.66%
 
50.0 - 50.9 million 182 18.90%
 
51.0 - 51.9 million 113 11.73%
 
52.0 - 52.9 million 128 13.29%
 
53.0 - 53.9 million 64 6.65%
 
54.0 - 54.9 million 70 7.27%
 
55.0 - 55.9 million 106 11.01%
 
56.0 - 56.9 million 16 1.66%
 
57.0 - 58.0 million 24 2.49%
 
More than 58 million 61 6.33%
 
Total:963
UnderwaterFunktown on 08 June 2020

Depends on whether they really release an Xbox Series S along with the Series X and at 300$ as has been rumored.

If they do that I don't think the Xbone will have a ton of sales left in it after that and will at best hit 51-52 mil.
But if a Series S ends up being a few years down the line instead or somehow 400$, then I could see the Xbone getting quite close to 55 mil.



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Farsala on 08 June 2020

54m I guess with another US holiday for them.

Bonus: The bolstered first party makes up for the longer development times, so I think things will be fairly similar, maybe a little bit better than XB1.



newwil7l on 08 June 2020

55m seems pretty realistic to me.



curl-6 on 08 June 2020

55 million.

Despite weak sales I think it's trundle on for a while as I expect XSX to be expensive.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 08 June 2020

BlackBeauty on 08 June 2020
curl-6 said:

55 million.

Despite weak sales I think it's trundle on for a while as I expect XSX to be expensive.

XSX will have a lower price cheap option right out of the gate.



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curl-6 on 08 June 2020
BlackBeauty said:
curl-6 said:

55 million.

Despite weak sales I think it's trundle on for a while as I expect XSX to be expensive.

XSX will have a lower price cheap option right out of the gate.

Maybe, but that hasn't been confirmed yet. Still just a rumor.



DonFerrari on 08 June 2020

My prediction is still the same from start of gen 50-55M.
Bonus: GAAS, a lot of output from smaller chapter to keep GP feed.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

VAMatt on 09 June 2020

I picked 50-50.9. but, doing the math now, I'm thinking that's low. It doesn't appear that Series X is coming this year, if it ever does. And, since XB Game Studios games will be cross gen for a while, it makes sense that XBone will still sell decently at least through this holiday season. So, 52-54 million seems more likely at end of life.

If Series S does launch this year (seems unlikely at this point), it'll end somewhere more like 50-52.



DonFerrari on 09 June 2020
Machina said:

Another interesting one to look back on. When we ran the poll in mid 2018 these were the results - https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237004

45-50 million rnage won the poll, with 51-55 coming in second. Once again the community was very pessimistic.

I went with the 51-55 million option back then. I think that's still looking good. It's slightly up yoy so far, but that will probably change in the coming months, so that it ends up being slightly down. Should still manage another 2-2.5 million more this year, to bring it to ~50 million. Then a sharp drop next year to something like 2-2.5 million for the whole year, and a huge drop for the year after that as it basically dies, with the XSX and PS5 fully taking over its space. I think it'll end up right in the middle of that original 51-55 million prediction. 

So for this poll I'll go with the 52.0-52.9 option.

Edit - I see <50 is currently winning. Unless people think the current total is wildly off, then there's no way it fails to hit 50 million. It's done 1.6 million so far this year, and even if it ends up being down a lot yoy there's no way it sells less in the second half of this year than it did in the first half. But let's imagine for the sake of argument that it sold the same amount in the second half of 2020 - that still takes it to 49.4 million by the end of 2020. Would then need to sell less than 600k for the entirety of 2021 (and beyond) to stay below the 50 million mark.

Well some users are very odd on predictions. PS4 was like 96M sold and some at the time voted for it would never outsell Wii. So it doesn't surprise me to see some thinking X1 won't sell like 3M from now to end of production.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

tack50 on 09 June 2020

The Xbox One will easily reack 50M, but who knows how much more. For the sake of using round numbers I guess it will get around 52.5M sold