Forums - Sales Discussion - VGC estimates that the Xbox One sold through 47.8m by May 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

VGC estimates that the Xbox One sold through 47.8m by May 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 50 million 199 20.66%
 
50.0 - 50.9 million 182 18.90%
 
51.0 - 51.9 million 113 11.73%
 
52.0 - 52.9 million 128 13.29%
 
53.0 - 53.9 million 64 6.65%
 
54.0 - 54.9 million 70 7.27%
 
55.0 - 55.9 million 106 11.01%
 
56.0 - 56.9 million 16 1.66%
 
57.0 - 58.0 million 24 2.49%
 
More than 58 million 61 6.33%
 
Total:963

Microsoft has not provided shipment updates for the Xbox One since several years ago, so VGC estimates for sell-through are the best thing we have as basis for predictions. According to VGC, the Xbox One has sold through 47.8m units by May 30th.

What are your lifetime sales expectations?

...

Bonus question: Recently Microsoft has gone on an acquisition spree to bolster their first party lineup. What kind of overall direction do you expect? Any specific focus on single-player, multiplayer, games as a service or something else, or an attempt to strike a balance?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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Depends on whether they really release an Xbox Series S along with the Series X and at 300$ as has been rumored.

If they do that I don't think the Xbone will have a ton of sales left in it after that and will at best hit 51-52 mil.
But if a Series S ends up being a few years down the line instead or somehow 400$, then I could see the Xbone getting quite close to 55 mil.



54m I guess with another US holiday for them.

Bonus: The bolstered first party makes up for the longer development times, so I think things will be fairly similar, maybe a little bit better than XB1.



55m seems pretty realistic to me.



55 million.

Despite weak sales I think it's trundle on for a while as I expect XSX to be expensive.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 08 June 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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51.0 - 51.9. Prior to the Covid-19 boost, I would have said under 50m.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

curl-6 said:

55 million.

Despite weak sales I think it's trundle on for a while as I expect XSX to be expensive.

XSX will have a lower price cheap option right out of the gate.



BlackBeauty said:
curl-6 said:

55 million.

Despite weak sales I think it's trundle on for a while as I expect XSX to be expensive.

XSX will have a lower price cheap option right out of the gate.

Maybe, but that hasn't been confirmed yet. Still just a rumor.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

My prediction is still the same from start of gen 50-55M.
Bonus: GAAS, a lot of output from smaller chapter to keep GP feed.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Another interesting one to look back on. When we ran the poll in mid 2018 these were the results - https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237004

45-50 million rnage won the poll, with 51-55 coming in second. Once again the community was very pessimistic.

I went with the 51-55 million option back then. I think that's still looking good. It's slightly up yoy so far, but that will probably change in the coming months, so that it ends up being slightly down. Should still manage another 2-2.5 million more this year, to bring it to ~50 million. Then a sharp drop next year to something like 2-2.5 million for the whole year, and a huge drop for the year after that as it basically dies, with the XSX and PS5 fully taking over its space. I think it'll end up right in the middle of that original 51-55 million prediction. 

So for this poll I'll go with the 52.0-52.9 option.

Edit - I see <50 is currently winning. Unless people think the current total is wildly off, then there's no way it fails to hit 50 million. It's done 1.6 million so far this year, and even if it ends up being down a lot yoy there's no way it sells less in the second half of this year than it did in the first half. But let's imagine for the sake of argument that it sold the same amount in the second half of 2020 - that still takes it to 49.4 million by the end of 2020. Would then need to sell less than 600k for the entirety of 2021 (and beyond) to stay below the 50 million mark.

Last edited by Machina - on 09 June 2020