Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 20, 2020 (May 11 - May 17)

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src said:
TruckOSaurus said:
I find it curious that Trials of Mana is selling about 35% better on PS4 than Switch. From what I've seen it's not a game that looks much better on PS4 and Switch has the bigger install base and the portability factor going for it. Anybody know what could be giving the PS4 the edge here?

In the news, hardware is getting slow. PS4 back under 10K.

PS4 has stock shortages at the moment.

noshten said:

Its pretty well know that SE and Retailers didn't order enough physical copies for the launch of Trials of Mana(on the Switch).

This is the main reason its down 57% on the PS4 this week and up 128% on the Switch. They could have been much closer if SE and retailers didn't underestimate demand.

Sadly with a JRPG once you miss this first launch window, used copies appear on the market, so companies never really gain back that loss. Still good for retailers since a lot of them resell used copies in Japan. Long term Switch version will end up outselling the PS4 version in Japan but neither version will get over 200K

[PS4] Trials of Mana # (Square Enix) {2020.04.24} (¥5.980) - 5.467 / 122.753 <80-100%> (-57%)
[NSW] Trials of Mana # (Square Enix) {2020.04.24} (¥5.980) - 4.951 / 90.068 <80-100%> (+128%)

Misjudging demand is one of the reasons FF XV never sold its initial shipment, SE & retailers overestimated demand and in the end, retailers had to sell at a loss in order to get rid of inventory. Still I think Trials of Mana is a game that will make the majority of its sales overseas, so these missed sales aren't much of an issue for SE, since they will make up on it through the digital sales World Wide. 

Same thing happened with Octopath which had big shortages at launch on the Switch. There might have been another SE game I cant remember that faced similar issues. 

Highly doubt this is the case. If it was undershipped significantly we would eventually see replenish and overtake the PS4 SKU. Instead its 30k behind and still getting beaten by PS4.

The eventual replenish is reflected on the charts. +128%. Or is that increase a coincidence?

The only issue is it may be too little too late at this point.



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noshten said:
src said:

Highly doubt this is the case. If it was undershipped significantly we would eventually see replenish and overtake the PS4 SKU. Instead its 30k behind and still getting beaten by PS4.

You can believe facts or believe what you want to be true, doesn't change a thing.

Why would a JRRG have a boost of 128% in its sales nearly one month after its launch?

It's pretty simple & pretty well known for any regular follower of Famitsu/M-C threads here and on resetera that Trials of Mana Switch SKU lacked stock at launch and hasn't had a substantial "replenishment" since than. This week marks the first time they've actually delivered additional stock and it's only around 5K for the week.  

You can't magically replenish something you didn't plan on. Production takes time and when you miss the launch window on a JRPG, you are missing a good chunk of sales because of the second-hand market in Japan. But keep on believing, obviously you are living in some type of parallel universe and don't want to actually gain insight into reality :) 

Nice try but nothing you said was factual.

You use numbers to lead you to incorrect conclusions.

Is there stock issues for SW ToM? Obviously, as seen by the WEEKLY 128%

Was there enough of a stock issue that the SW SKU would sell more than the PS4 SKU? Evidently not. The replenishment only led to approx 5K sales and is still below the PS4 SKU.

Its still 30k+ behind the PS4 SKU.

There are numerous cases of PS4 SKUs doing better than SW SKUs, don't sweat it.



src said:

Nice try but nothing you said was factual.

You use numbers to lead you to incorrect conclusions.

Is there stock issues for SW ToM? Obviously, as seen by the WEEKLY 128%

Was there enough of a stock issue that the SW SKU would sell more than the PS4 SKU? Evidently not. The replenishment only led to approx 5K sales and is still below the PS4 SKU.

Its still 30k+ behind the PS4 SKU.

There are numerous cases of PS4 SKUs doing better than SW SKUs, don't sweat it.

Aren't you the one pushing the same stock argument for FFVIIR?



src said:
noshten said:

Its pretty well know that SE and Retailers didn't order enough physical copies for the launch of Trials of Mana(on the Switch).

This is the main reason its down 57% on the PS4 this week and up 128% on the Switch. They could have been much closer if SE and retailers didn't underestimate demand.

Sadly with a JRPG once you miss this first launch window, used copies appear on the market, so companies never really gain back that loss. Still good for retailers since a lot of them resell used copies in Japan. Long term Switch version will end up outselling the PS4 version in Japan but neither version will get over 200K

[PS4] Trials of Mana # (Square Enix) {2020.04.24} (¥5.980) - 5.467 / 122.753 <80-100%> (-57%)
[NSW] Trials of Mana # (Square Enix) {2020.04.24} (¥5.980) - 4.951 / 90.068 <80-100%> (+128%)

Misjudging demand is one of the reasons FF XV never sold its initial shipment, SE & retailers overestimated demand and in the end, retailers had to sell at a loss in order to get rid of inventory. Still I think Trials of Mana is a game that will make the majority of its sales overseas, so these missed sales aren't much of an issue for SE, since they will make up on it through the digital sales World Wide. 

Same thing happened with Octopath which had big shortages at launch on the Switch. There might have been another SE game I cant remember that faced similar issues. 

Highly doubt this is the case. If it was undershipped significantly we would eventually see replenish and overtake the PS4 SKU. Instead its 30k behind and still getting beaten by PS4.

A sudden increase by 128% is a strong indication, that the week before it was supply constrained. I doubt though that it will outsell the PS4-version long-term as the poster before claimed, that ship has sailed with the initial undershipping.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 23 May 2020

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Wyrdness said:
src said:

Nice try but nothing you said was factual.

You use numbers to lead you to incorrect conclusions.

Is there stock issues for SW ToM? Obviously, as seen by the WEEKLY 128%

Was there enough of a stock issue that the SW SKU would sell more than the PS4 SKU? Evidently not. The replenishment only led to approx 5K sales and is still below the PS4 SKU.

Its still 30k+ behind the PS4 SKU.

There are numerous cases of PS4 SKUs doing better than SW SKUs, don't sweat it.

Aren't you the one pushing the same stock argument for FFVIIR?

And? FF7R broke the sell through records on PS4, somewhere around 96+%.

I ain't the one out here saying that a weekly shortage is somehow stopping FF7R from selling 1.5 million.

Mnementh said:
src said:

Highly doubt this is the case. If it was undershipped significantly we would eventually see replenish and overtake the PS4 SKU. Instead its 30k behind and still getting beaten by PS4.

A sudden increase by 128% is a strong indication, that the week before it was supply constrained. I doubt though that it will outsell the PS4-version long-term as the poster before claimed, that ship has sailed with the initial undershipping.

Undershipping is not the reason. If there is demand it will be replenished, hence why even after demand has been met the SW SKU is still below the PS4 SKU.

Its the audience.



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What's the lowest week for PS4 in Japan to date? 6k is pretty bleak.



src said:

And? FF7R broke the sell through records on PS4, somewhere around 96+%.

I ain't the one out here saying that a weekly shortage is somehow stopping FF7R from selling 1.5 million.

You've previously argued with people that VIIR has stock issues even with each week showing a decline but here you're turning around and saying to people if the is demand stock can be replenished that's the point. That's a contradictory stance considering you use the same argument they're using.



src said:
Wyrdness said:

Aren't you the one pushing the same stock argument for FFVIIR?

And? FF7R broke the sell through records on PS4, somewhere around 96+%.

I ain't the one out here saying that a weekly shortage is somehow stopping FF7R from selling 1.5 million.

Mnementh said:

A sudden increase by 128% is a strong indication, that the week before it was supply constrained. I doubt though that it will outsell the PS4-version long-term as the poster before claimed, that ship has sailed with the initial undershipping.

Undershipping is not the reason. If there is demand it will be replenished, hence why even after demand has been met the SW SKU is still below the PS4 SKU.

Its the audience.

Not having stock at launch for a game that is going to be frontloaded is detrimental to their sales. There was posts on era  from people actually in japan they the switch version was having physical shortages so I don’t understand why you are trying to say it wasn’t. It was square’s fault alongside with retailers for under estimating the switch  



Wyrdness said:
src said:

And? FF7R broke the sell through records on PS4, somewhere around 96+%.

I ain't the one out here saying that a weekly shortage is somehow stopping FF7R from selling 1.5 million.

You've previously argued with people that VIIR has stock issues even with each week showing a decline but here you're turning around and saying to people if the is demand stock can be replenished that's the point. That's a contradictory stance considering you use the same argument they're using.

Stop lying. I never said that.

The second week of FF7R had 96% sell out and hence stock issues. I see nothing really wrong with stock of FF7R since then.

MasonADC said:
src said:

And? FF7R broke the sell through records on PS4, somewhere around 96+%.

I ain't the one out here saying that a weekly shortage is somehow stopping FF7R from selling 1.5 million.

Undershipping is not the reason. If there is demand it will be replenished, hence why even after demand has been met the SW SKU is still below the PS4 SKU.

Its the audience.

Not having stock at launch for a game that is going to be frontloaded is detrimental to their sales. There was posts on era  from people actually in japan they the switch version was having physical shortages so I don’t understand why you are trying to say it wasn’t. It was square’s fault alongside with retailers for under estimating the switch  

No its not. That doesn't even make sense. Most people can wait a week.

AC NH had big stock issues but in the long term it doesn't mean anything as it gets replenished.

Seems like a poor excuse for those that can't accept a PS4 SKU beating a SW SKU even though its happened many times.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Can't believe Pokemon is already down to #13. Man, that was a front loaded game.

You're joking, right? Its 6 months old and will have boosts when the expansions release.



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