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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Next gen PS5/XB1SX sales ratio will look the same as this gen's. Huge changes in console marketshare require huge changes in the industry.

sales2099 said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Wait so InXile and Doublefine would make fantastic games if only they had the funding? There's heaps of critically acclaimed small budget Indies every year, proving that you don't need a AAA or AA budget to make a great game. Some of the best Indie games are one person affairs like Stardew Valley, or Undertale. 

Well that goes into double standard territory. Not you, but I see lots of fans on the other side heavily implying only AAA games matter. That A-AA games just aren’t worth their time. Xbox gamers are fine with this, Ori for example is a fantastic game, but ultimately they are shit talked for “not being system sellers” or not on the same level as games they are used to. To tie into the thread people can and will argue small exclusives for Xbox won’t move the sales pendulum their way. 

Im all for a healthy mix: 2 AAA games every year with A-AA to space out the rest. Can’t wait to see those two studios make games without having to worry too much about budgets. 

Not really double standard. It is just that Indie aren't really pushing HW sales. Reason why the Series X event was underwhelming, no really big game over there.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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sales2099 said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

Well, I have in the past, said that Cuphead and Ori "didn't count". But not because I thought Indies didn't count. I love and celebrate Indies. I've probably bought more Indies in the last 2 years than I have full blown AAA titles. My criticism towards Cuphead and Ori "not counting" had more to do with the fact that any potatoe PC would be able to run those games. I mean, can you imagine the following conversation? 

"I'm going to buy a XB1!"

Why? 

"So I can play Cuphead, and Ori of course!"

But your 2009 non-gaming laptop can play those games perfectly. Why spend $300 to play a game that you can already play? 

Fair enough, but being a console gamer and PC gamer are two different things. If both options are on the table then I see your point. But if it’s just between Xbox and PS I see no reason to not count them. That said you definitely need more then small games to move systems, so guess we’ll see in July what’s cooking. 

You don't need to be a PC gamer to be able to play Cuphead and Ori on PC, because that is the point on mentioning potato PC, it would run fine even on a non-dedicated PC.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

PotentHerbs said:
I think the PS5's launch year will be pretty strong from a software front. I can see Horizon: Zero Dawn 2 & GT7 launching by 2021. Guerrilla Games and Polyphony Digital will have 4+ years of development since their last releases. Both have already expanded their teams too.

While the PS4's launch year left a lot to be desired, the PS3's last year was absolutely incredible & games like Puppeter, GT6, God of War: Ascension, could have easily been PS4 releases. It seems Sony has flipped their strategy this gen, "crouching down," & having tons of software ready for the PS5's launch year.

Insomniac, Japan Studios, PD, San Diego, GG could all have something out by the end of 2021. Maybe Sony takes a bigger hit on hardware to ensure software & services continues to strive.

Honestly, one thing I've learned in the past 4 PS generations is that you really shouldn't ever judge a game's library by its first year. Even the Ps4 was pretty bland and empty and devoid of high quality games until 2015/2016 and it ended up being one of my three favourite consoles of all time! History suggests that Sony paces themselves and most of the best games on their system will come out in the mid-late generation. 

That's the narrative I've been trying to push here. Even when Sony looks like they're failing, they always end up delivering in the end. PS3 and Ps4 (the most recent and therefore most historically relevant comparisons) both had slow starts but ended up getting waves upon waves of quality while both the Xbox 360 and Xbox One had good to great starts only to sputter out in the latter half of their life cycles. Microsoft lost a LOT of headway against PS3 due to the shift in quality exclusives in 2010-2013, and while the Xbox One never had a truly impressive first party line up, the last few years of the Xbox One's life was anemic. 

I used to make charts showing all the exclusives of an 80+ Metacritic any given year, and ever since 2015, Xbox has only ever had a handful of them while the list is almost entirely dominated by PS4 and WiiU/Switch titles (Once the Switch came out in 2017, it's been pretty close). 

I'd love to show some of those results but Gamerankings.com is no longer a thing so i'd have to recreate what I found. The point is, when comparing the late-stage exclusives of Xbox and Playstation Brands, Playstation always comes out on top due to, you know, a more balanced release schedule. People keep arguing with me, but they're just wrong. The console sales, the release schedules, and the general opinion of the masses are all in agreement here with the only holdouts/exceptions being diehard fans who won't accept the 'loss' (I don't really consider it a loss, since this isn't a console war anymore and I think the very idea of taking sides is dumb. However, the only reason I can imagine people are so eager to disregard the very real history of what has happened over the last decade is becuase they don't like the idea of their side 'losing'). 

Actually, gimme some time, I'll get some numbers and see if I can convey that here to show just how anemic Xbox One's latter half has been. Data from 2017, 2018, and 2019 will be shared, since GameRankings went down in 2019 and I'm still learning the inferior Metacritic rankings.



My Console Library:

PS5, Switch, XSX

PS4, PS3, PS2, PS1, WiiU, Wii, GCN, N64 SNES, XBO, 360

3DS, DS, GBA, Vita, PSP, Android

Runa216 said:
PotentHerbs said:
I think the PS5's launch year will be pretty strong from a software front. I can see Horizon: Zero Dawn 2 & GT7 launching by 2021. Guerrilla Games and Polyphony Digital will have 4+ years of development since their last releases. Both have already expanded their teams too.

While the PS4's launch year left a lot to be desired, the PS3's last year was absolutely incredible & games like Puppeter, GT6, God of War: Ascension, could have easily been PS4 releases. It seems Sony has flipped their strategy this gen, "crouching down," & having tons of software ready for the PS5's launch year.

Insomniac, Japan Studios, PD, San Diego, GG could all have something out by the end of 2021. Maybe Sony takes a bigger hit on hardware to ensure software & services continues to strive.

Honestly, one thing I've learned in the past 4 PS generations is that you really shouldn't ever judge a game's library by its first year. Even the Ps4 was pretty bland and empty and devoid of high quality games until 2015/2016 and it ended up being one of my three favourite consoles of all time! History suggests that Sony paces themselves and most of the best games on their system will come out in the mid-late generation. 

That's the narrative I've been trying to push here. Even when Sony looks like they're failing, they always end up delivering in the end. PS3 and Ps4 (the most recent and therefore most historically relevant comparisons) both had slow starts but ended up getting waves upon waves of quality while both the Xbox 360 and Xbox One had good to great starts only to sputter out in the latter half of their life cycles. Microsoft lost a LOT of headway against PS3 due to the shift in quality exclusives in 2010-2013, and while the Xbox One never had a truly impressive first party line up, the last few years of the Xbox One's life was anemic. 

I used to make charts showing all the exclusives of an 80+ Metacritic any given year, and ever since 2015, Xbox has only ever had a handful of them while the list is almost entirely dominated by PS4 and WiiU/Switch titles (Once the Switch came out in 2017, it's been pretty close). 

I'd love to show some of those results but Gamerankings.com is no longer a thing so i'd have to recreate what I found. The point is, when comparing the late-stage exclusives of Xbox and Playstation Brands, Playstation always comes out on top due to, you know, a more balanced release schedule. People keep arguing with me, but they're just wrong. The console sales, the release schedules, and the general opinion of the masses are all in agreement here with the only holdouts/exceptions being diehard fans who won't accept the 'loss' (I don't really consider it a loss, since this isn't a console war anymore and I think the very idea of taking sides is dumb. However, the only reason I can imagine people are so eager to disregard the very real history of what has happened over the last decade is becuase they don't like the idea of their side 'losing'). 

Actually, gimme some time, I'll get some numbers and see if I can convey that here to show just how anemic Xbox One's latter half has been. Data from 2017, 2018, and 2019 will be shared, since GameRankings went down in 2019 and I'm still learning the inferior Metacritic rankings.

I made you a Venn diagram of people that think review aggregate scores are meaningless, and people that think lifetime console sales numbers are meaningless. 

Last edited by Cerebralbore101 - on 14 May 2020

Pok87 said:
eva01beserk said:

So you are basically saying that MS will expand the market. Care to give a reason? As nothing suggest at the moment that will happen. Things could change after their first party line up is anounced. But as it stands it looks like MS is exiting the console space for cloud services. 

There are several reasons:

- more and better exclusive games
- Gamepass
- similar console price at the start (Xbox One was 100$ more expensive than PS4)
- Xbox will no longer be a weaker console
- better marketing

Ps5 will still sell better, but the difference will not be so colossal.

More and better exclusives? MS has adquire studios for years now and all only mini games have releases aside for the big 3. People keep saying just wait for years. Nothing points to them outputing quality games just more quantity. I think after the July event is the last time they can say lets wait.

Gamepass is not a bad offer. But also indicates that they are uneilling to offer quality games. If they do it will be like one a year and a bunch of Indy games or it just would not be worth it.

Similar prices could help.

Being weaker is not an issue. Being weaker and more expensive was the issue with the x1. The same reason the x1x dint take off. Its definetly stronger than the pro but it was also pricier. It also lacks games.

Better marketing? Sounds like a preference thing. If you like what they Re showing your gona think its better. Just look at the reception the small anouncememts from Sony get. They drown out any positivity MS message may have. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

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DonFerrari said:
eva01beserk said:

Halo infinite will definetly sell better than 5. Mostly because of it being of 3 platforms and being a launch title. Sais nothing about it potential quality. It's definetly still a big franchise but framchises need a brake. Ms should really give their studios a little creative brake and let them make some passion project. Their ips will get a brake and they might pick some tips along the way. 

Your stance has been clear fornanyone to see. Double standarts are easy to see. Would I have time I would dig up old post showing your goalpost moving. 

The fact that it will be on 3 platforms can certainly mean more sales for the game, but will also mean less push for the new hw.

and the discussion here is exactly on the HW sales. So it make your argument worse for being in multiple platforms.

I think you misqoted me as it seems we are under agreement here. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

smroadkill15 said:
eva01beserk said:

Giving devs more time is not creative freedom or a brake. The forza halo gears teams must have nightmares dreaming of doing the same thing monotuously. Its always the same game for them. Bleeding edge and grounded where both in development before MS bought them. But as soon as MS acquired ninja theory guess what, more hellblade. A new caged hamster on a wheal. 

343I was made to make Halo games. If someone is working there it's because they want to work on Halo. Halo has such a vast universe, there is so much they can explore. Playground is not only working on forza horizon games, but also a new RPG. Turn 10 was made to make racing games. Ninja Theory is working on Hellblade 2 and Project Mara because that is what they want to work on. Ninja Theory and all the other developers MS acquired have been very open about the creative freedom MS is giving them. 

343i have the freedom to love halo or get the fuck out. I love that freedom.

So 343i was made for halo and turn 10 was made for forza and the coalition gears, but playground is special? 

I'm 100% sure that project Mara was ninja theory idea. They dont even have a script yet its just a concept so far. Im pretty sure they wanted to work on that game. Hellblade was probably on the backburner as the next big project. That was probably some deal they made. 

I'm sure all those other devs have the freedom to do what they want. As soon as they hit a decent game. The cage will just drop around them. 



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

eva01beserk said:
DonFerrari said:

The fact that it will be on 3 platforms can certainly mean more sales for the game, but will also mean less push for the new hw.

and the discussion here is exactly on the HW sales. So it make your argument worse for being in multiple platforms.

I think you misqoted me as it seems we are under agreement here. 

Yes, it was for Sales.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Yeah, i think is guaranteed PS5 will outsell xbox easily.
And MS knows that, and now doesnt care about console sales as it used to care.
They are going to sell subscription. Either gamepass or xCloud. A PC owner that plays MS games counts for them as much as a console owner. Same for a xCloud user on mobile. They are adapting.
Now, we that have to change our metrics, console marketshare doesnt mean the same as before.



jonathanalis said:
Yeah, i think is guaranteed PS5 will outsell xbox easily.
And MS knows that, and now doesnt care about console sales as it used to care.
They are going to sell subscription. Either gamepass or xCloud. A PC owner that plays MS games counts for them as much as a console owner. Same for a xCloud user on mobile. They are adapting.
Now, we that have to change our metrics, console marketshare doesnt mean the same as before.

As long as we don't go like some want, to compare Xbox Live gold+silver+pc+switch versus PS+ to claim a tie in marketshare.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."