Update from Superdata for Month 2 (Apr 2020)
According to SuperData, the game sold 3.6 million digital units in its second month, down 27% from its March sales but still the top-selling digital title on console, above Final Fantasy 7 Remake -- which sold 2.2 million digital units in April -- at No.2 and FIFA 20 at No.3.
Per Nintendo, AC Digital Share for opening was 50%. We know that figure and we know that total shipped for March 2020 (3/20 - 3/31, 12 days) was 11.77M.
From there, the only number we must estimate is sell-through % OR its inverse - # of units in transit & on shelves. Going with sell-through % representing PHYSICAL only. Here are a few scenarios:
Sell% | Physical | Digital | Trans/Shelves
75% | 5.05M | 5.05M | 1.58M
80% | 5.23M | 5.23M | 1.31M
85% | 5.40M | 5.40M | 0.96M
90% | 5.58M | 5.58M | 0.62M
95% | 5.73M | 5.73M | 0.32M
So for Superdata's ~5M estimate to be true, sell-through would have had to have been <75%, which I guess could be possible if the 11.77M includes an extra week of shipments in advance. But based on stock reports seems a bit low.
