Not including FF7R week in sales the PS4 needs to sell another ~1.5 million to outsell the PS3. How long sales stay high due to FF7R and Switch shortages is a big factor in helping that. In the end I doubt the PS4 will outsell the PS3 in Japan. 

I believe months 37 and 38 correspond to the holidays for PS4.  For a holiday month PS4 hardly gained any ground on the Switch.  And they aren't going to catch up to Switch in month 38 either considering Switch is ahead by 4.9m.  

Basically, this means that the "double helix" is broken.  Switch sales are permanently ahead of PS4.

So even aligned with PS4's 2016 holiday season, last month saw PS4 gain by only about a million thanks to animal crossing.

The big question now is, can Nintendo actually produce and ship enough Switches to keep it ahead? Its bottlenecked by supply atm, and probably for some time to come.

Switch had an amazing March. April right now isn't looking hot with the lack of supply. Even so, Switch has amassed a big lead that it will stay ahead despite the next chart update being December for PS4. 

It isn't Nintendo's fault for the stock shortage. It takes time for the factories to ramp up production and get the consoles shipped worldwide. 

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Switch vs Wii in Japan – VGChartz Gap Charts – March 2020

Switch Vs. Wii Japan:

Gap change in latest month: 89,881 - NS

Gap change over last 12 months: 3,362,498 - NS

Total Lead: 3,569,668 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 13,245,090

Wii Total Sales: 9,675,422

March 2020 is the 37th month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month the Switch increased its lead over the Wii by 89,881 units and by 3.36 million units in the last 12 months. The Switch is currently ahead of the Wii by 3.57 million units.

The Wii launched in December 2006 in Japan, while the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017. The Switch has sold 13.25 million units, while the Wii sold 9.68 million units during the same timeframe.

The 37th month for the Nintendo Switch is March 2020 and for the Wii it is December 2009.

The Wii sold 12.77 million units lifetime in Japan, which means the Switch has outsold the Wii in Japan in just 37 months.

It will probably depend also on how the sales in Europe and RoW will develop. In Japan Switch has already won and in the US, it's looking quite good already.

And unlike with the Wii, I don't expect a sales crunch with the Switch and more of a slow decline like the PS4 does.

With Nintendo ordering 10% more Switch units for 2020 than 2019 I wonder if the Switch could reach PS2 and DS levels. I guess it depends when Switch 2 launches and if Nintendo has enough upcoming games to keep sales high. It hasn't received a single price cut, so that is a way to help keep sales higher. 

Yeah the Wii fell victim to Nintendo trying to launch two new platforms in 2011-2012. With their studios all tied up making 3DS and Wii U games, they couldn't develop for three platforms at once so Wii support basically vanished after 2010.

If they were smart they could've softened the blow by properly localizing and advertising the Operation Rainfall trilogy and Fatal Frame 2, but instead they screwed that up royally.

Anyway, Switch shouldn't have either problem.

Switch is going to outsell PS4.  Then it is going to outsell DS and PS2.  Why?  Because almost every Generation 8 gamer out there is going to buy a Switch.  It was going to happen anyway, but now the conditions are better than before.

First there is 3DS and Vita.  These guys want the next handheld, so all of them are going to buy a Switch (and really a lot of them already have).  Wii U gamers are die hard Nintendo fans.  They already bought a Switch.  XBox1?  They've had a huge drought of games for a while now.  Outside of the games that release every year the big new games for this year are Cyberpunk 2077 and Halo Infinite, and those come out near the end of the year.  Their backlog for the past few years isn't terribly impressive either.  XB1 gamers have mostly run out of games, and there is nothing to do right now but sit at home and play games.  XB1 gamers are going to want a Switch. 

That just leaves PS4.  PS4 actually has a very solid line-up this year, and they have a backlog of exclusives that is a lot better than the XB1.  PS4 owners will be fine this year.  But after this year the focus is going to be on PS5.  The reality of this pandemic is that it also comes with a huge recession/depression.  Not a lot of PS5s are going to get sold for a while.  Meanwhile Switch is already cheaper and Nintendo can drop the price pretty easily.  That means, eventually, most PS4 owners will get a Switch.  It might not be this year or next year, but eventually they will get a Switch while waiting for the PS5 price to drop to an affordable level.

In the end almost every gamer is going to get a Switch.  Switch's biggest competition is neither Sony nor Microsoft.  It is Netflix, Hulu and Disney+.  Basically all a lot of people can do right now is sit at home and watch streaming or play games.  And the only current system is the Switch.  Once the pandemic ends, the economy will need time to recover so people will still buy a Switch.  Demand for Switch is going to stay high for several years.  It's going to become the best selling system of all time.