Either that, or manipulatively edited to create a story and paint a picture that weren't there in the first place

Lot of new polls, and the race... is not tightening.

Good News for Trump/Bad News for Biden

So, let's start with the positive... or ummmm... negative depending on how you view it.

CNN and Emerson college have Biden up by 4 and 3 respectively in PA. That's a little below the average, so it's a change in the right direction. CNN's polling is not great, but Emerson's is pretty good.

Ipsos has trump down by only 2 in Arizona which is in the margin of error. High ground inc. which I never heard of has 1. Not great pollsters, but it's something.

Neutralish News

Ipsos has NC as a pure tossup. Civics and EMS Research has the same for Texas. Texas being even is sort of ok news I guess for Trump. Marquette Law School has Biden by 5 in Wisconsin, so he's not losing ground. And if you're still holding hope for a 2016 repeat, Biden's not doing much better in Wisconsin than Hillary, although there are reasons to think the polling is better.

Good News For Biden/Bad News For Trump

Biden is up by 1 in Ohio according to the NYT. Ohio is a gravy state for him, but would shut down Trump, who won by about 8 in 2016. Polls are similar to 2016 though, where Clinton was overrated by about 6-7 points.

Really Good News for Biden/Bad News For Trump

Quinnipac has Biden up by 13 in PA, 11 in Florida, and 5 in Iowa. 

Those are eye popping numbers. The Florida poll is a major outlier, but other polls are also trending that way. Florida was not a state where 2016 polling was inaccurate. 

Fivethirtyeight favors Biden now in Iowa, by about 1%. In 2016 Trump was ahead by 3 and won by 8. Even if you expect the same thing, and Trump is still underrated by 5 points, that's still a massive swing for Biden. If Trump only wins Iowa by 3-4, Biden almost certainly wins Wis, PA, Mi, Minn, and the USA.

PA also seems like it may be an outlier, but not by that much. A lot of polls have had Biden brushing up against double digit leads. 

AAAAAAAHHHHHHHHH News for Trump WOOOOOOOO News For Biden

As if to make me look like a jackass for questioning Haxxiy just a her posts ago, Hart-Yang Research has Trump up by 2 in Montana. That's a state Trump won by 20 in 2016. 

Now, 2016 also had some outlier polls showing a close race and even a Clinton lead but most of them showed a high double digit Trump lead. He was predicted to win by 15 and won by 20 (being off by 5% is really no biggie in a state like Montana which doesn't see much polling and isn't expected to be close). In 2020 most of the polls are showing mid to high single digit leads. 

Most notably, Rasmussen has Trump down by 12. This is kind of significant because this poll tends to lean Republican, and was one of the few pollsters predicting a close race. Rasmussen had Biden up by only 1 just a month ago. So either the race has dramatically shifted, or Rasmussen's previous polls were outliers and they're regressing to the mean. Probably both. 

Polls predicting a Biden landslide are becoming the norm rather than the outliers. If Biden wins by 9-10 points nationally, he has a 99% plus chance of winning the electoral college. There's simply no way he can outperform Clinton by 8% nationwide, and not get a 1% boost in the states that were decided by thin margins.

So... again, not looking good for Trump, and it's hard to see what's going to change things around in the bottom of the 9th.

Edit: Add Fox News to the list of polls that are pointing to a Biden landslide. They have him up by 9 and 10 according to two turnout models.

Also a slight correction. I confused Missouri for Montana before. Although the states are similar in how they voted so the same thing applies. Also, I think Mo for Montana makes more sense. 

But Data for progress has a poll of Montana where Trump is up by 6 points, down from a 19 point margin. They also have Biden up by 7 in North Carolina, and by 2 in Texas. But, Data for Progress tends to be more pro Biden than average.

Full quote

"I am, ironically, more optimistic about the prospects of dealing with the problems we talked about today, as well as so many other problems we have right now, than I have ever been in my whole career. And you say, ‘Why in the hell would you say that, Biden? You just talked about all these difficulties.’ Well, I’ll tell you why. Because the American public, the blinders have been taken off. They’ve all of a sudden seen a hell of a lot clearer. They are saying: ‘Jeez, the reason I was able to stay sequestered in my home is because some Black woman was able to stack the grocery shelf, or I got a young Hispanic out there, or these dreamers out there, 60,000 of them, acting as first responders and nurses and docs.’ Or, all of a sudden people are realizing, my lord these people have done so much — not just black, white but across the board — have done so much for me. We can do this. We can get things done. And I think they’re ready and the irony of all ironies is that I think it’s the vehicle by which we’re going to be able to create really good paying jobs. We’re going to be able to provide for significant health care. The idea that in the middle of a pandemic — the worst thing since the great flu back at the turn of the century, where so many people died worldwide — is that people, you know, people are figuring out that we are all in this together. We can get through this if we just level with one another. Just tell the truth. Let people know."

OMG WHAT A RACIST! WORSE THAN HITLER! HOW DARE HE SAY THAT BLACK WOMAN AND HISPANICS ARE PROVIDING VITAL SERVICES THAT WE ALL RELY ON!

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-pandemic-black-women-grocery/

Trump has always been truthful about the coronavirus... uh huh... I’m sure you are right pence...🙄

Thoughts on the VP debate:

- Kamala comes out with better energy
- Pence starts right off lying about the travel ban
- Certainly more civil than last time
- It appears muted mics really are in effect
- Kamala doesn't waste time fact checking an administration immune to it; instead stays on attack
- Pence employs an extremely bad faith response to act like K was criticizing the people and not the administration
- Pence dodges question about admin not following guidelines, again makes it about the people
- Pence goes way over time limit
- Are mic's actually getting muted? Cuz Pence is interrupting a lot now
- Kamala bringing back positive energy while Pence is now on defense
- Pence uses full 2 mins to again completely dodge the question and bring up a nonsense hypothetical, lies about stockpile
- Kamala also dodges the question of presidential disability with an indulgent personal story
- Nice move by K connecting medical records to tax records
- Kamala focusing more on the viewer than Pence
- K bringing up policy and Trump's empty promises
- Another lie from Pence about economic recovery, bad faith fearmongering
- Pence interrupts big time. Was I just imagining Kamala getting her mic cut earlier?
- Yay, Republican environmental gaslighting!
- Bit of a dodge from K on it, but good comparisons, criticism, and policy discussion
- Pence again fearmongering about taxes? On a question about the environment?
- Kamala appealing to renter fears
- Pence will not shut up, gaslights about NAFTA/USMCA, thinks he's criticizing K
- Another bit of a dodge from K about China, but plenty of valid criticism
- Pence will not shut up! No respect for the time limits
- Both get in good licks about the military, K has better ammo, though
- Pence. Will. Not. Shut. Up. Keeps circling back to old topics
- Both dodge Roe v Wade, Kamala less so
- Pence lies about abortions; shocker
- "Excuse me, I am speaking :)" Nice
- Supreme Court hypocrisy!
- Kamala gives good answer on racial justice, runs over
- Same old talking points from Pence, fly on head lol
- Good response from Kamala
- Both dodge a bit on transfer of power, Pence more so, use it more like a closing argument
- Most lies yet from Pence
- Decent enough final response from both candidates, positive platitudes, more substance from Kamala

In the end, I don't think Kamala trounced Pence like some predicted, but she did get the better of the debate. Pence lied a lot more and chose to constantly ignore his time limit rather than constantly interrupt like Trump did. Kamala gave off better energy and criticisms. No real gaffes or particularly memorable moments, apart from maybe "Excuse me, I'm speaking. :)" and the fly on Pence's head. In all I don't think this debate will move the needle like the last one did, but I do give the W to Kamala.

Interestingly, the Biden campaign is using the 2016 narrative 

Slightly disingenuous, but hey, you gotta avoid complacency.

I could only stomach about 5 minutes of the whole debate. I cannot stand watching republicans talk for how often they misconstrue data, outright lie, misrepresent facts, or turn everything into a victim complex or self-promotion opportunity. 

Listening to Trump and Pence speak in these debates reminds me of my time watching the series finale of Game of thrones. as I was watching, it seemed like every 30 seconds I had to stop, shake my head, and ask a million questions for clarification or explanations since so much of what was said and shown made no goddamn sense. In much the same vein I had to go 'wait, why is that the case? Who saw that event happen? Why is Drogon doing this? Why is Tyrion speaking? Why are people listening? Who the hell is this guy? Why is Jon Snow going along with his punishment if the people who demand it are leaving further west?", I can't help but stop after every Pence sentence asking "Where's your proof? that's not what happened. Let her talk, no that's a lie. That's also a lie. That's provably false. that doesn't matter. You clearly have no idea what you're talking about." 

IT's just gross to me that lying loud enough has been working in politics for so long. I have said it before and I'll say it again, the most frustrating thing about politics is that the easier but wrong answers are easier to parrot than the complicated but true answer. "If the glove don't fit, you must acquit" repeated ad nauseum. That's all this is. 

Two things.

Will We Know the Results on Election day?

And the answer is... maybe. If Biden wins.

The reason for this is the states that allow mail in votes to be counted early. Florida, Colorado, Arizona, Ohio, Texas, Nevada, and North Carolina do. By varying amounts. There may be more, but these are the ones that are remotely competitive.

We're likely to see results from Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and Florida because they give you a while before election day.. Texas gives a 4 day jump, but is really big so probably not. North Carolina is possible since I believe they have two weeks. Ohio is still determining when to start so, it's iffy.

Of those states, Florida, Ohio, and Texas are must wins. North Carolina and Arizona are not must wins themselves, but a Biden win in both would make a win virtually impossible for Trump.

So, if Florida is called for Biden on election day/night it would be pretty safe to assume that Biden is going to win. Similarly if Ohio is called for Biden, he almost certainly will win in the rest of the rust belt. If Texas is called for Biden, obviously that's checkmate. If North Carolina is called for Biden, we can be pretty certain of the result... If Arizona and NC are both called, then we can be confident.

It's also not impossible for Biden to outright win on election night, but it's very unlikely. If all of those states except Texas are called for Biden, that along with the safe states would give Biden 275. If Texas is called for Biden, he can get to 313. So, in theory Biden can secure the win on election night, even with 100 votes left to be counted. 

Could Trump actually win on election night? No. 

If all of those states except Colorado voted Trump, he'd be at 254. If Trump got all of those and Colorado, he'd be at 263, but that seems really unlikely. Barring something really bizarre like Trump getting 100% of Pennsylvania's in person vote, there's nowhere else to get that last seven votes. 

But, we could potentially see signs that would be very troubling to the point where we could consider Trump a practical lock. For example, the above scenario of Colorado and Nevada voting Trump. If we had enough data in Ohio to project that Trump would win by an overwhelming margin (like 12ish), that would also mean Biden would almost definitely lost. If Trump won by like 7 in Florida, that wouldn't really guarantee it, but it would certainly be a big scare. There could be warning signs but not a death knell.

We should probably brace for a tumultuous week long (or maybe more) election "night". But... we could get lucky (at least if you support Biden) and have a result in the wee hours of November 4th.

And one more thing regarding 2016 since Biden brought it up in an attempt to scare me into giving him more money... 

Some people are still convinced by the polls showing that Trump is outperforming Biden compared to how he was doing against Hillary in battleground states, mostly based on RCP's average. RCP had Clinton up 4.8 compared to 4.6 for Biden. However, in the national polls realclear has Biden up by 9.7% as opposed to 5.5%.

First off it's worth pointing out that this is Clinton's peak. After the debates she shot up, and then things closed up in the last two weeks. Biden's lead is consistent so it's not as likely that will happen again.

More to the point, how do we explain that difference between the national average and battlegrounds?

If people think the battlegrounds are still underrating Trump, those numbers are hard to reconcile. If Biden is outperforming so much in the national average, why would this small set of states be immune to the changes?

The most likely explanation is that the polls are better. If Biden indeed winds up performing this well on election date, outperforming Clinton by 5-7 points, then we would expect him to win Florida by 3-5, Pennsylvania by 5-7, be competitive in Ohio and so on. If the race shifts that much than states like Ohio, Penn, and Florida which are typically close to the national average should see a relative swing.

As for the other possible explanations... well I can't really think of any good ones. It could be that the demographics shifts. For instance, Arizona is shifting democratic at a faster rate than the rest of the country. So it could be the rust belt states are shifting in the opposite direction of the country making the results still off. But that doesn't seem likely. 

Basically, if the national average was correct, what we would expect to see in the swing states is exactly what we're seeing. Conversely, if the polling in the swing states is right, then the national average is about what we'd expect. So, they help to verify each other. The only other real explanation is that they're both screwed up and to the same degree in the same direction.

Lol yeah, the fly seems to be one of the big takeaways from the debate. I'll take that over the last one's travesty.

https://youtu.be/MojnVCadjCI

That fly was telling Pence what to say in the debate