By 23, I would have expected you to have some understanding of statistics and sample sizing.

By 23, I would have expected you to research before responding on a topic in which you are unlettered.

However, since clearly this is not the case...read this. 

THREAD WARNING:

Since this was basically the same as my last post here, I feel like it shouldn't need to be said again, but if someone posts something that is incorrect or inaccurate, correct them without insults, accusations, condescension, etc. Doing otherwise may result in a temporary thread ban, or a general ban.

Latest polls are favorable for Biden. In particular two highly rated pollsters have him at +9 and +8 in Pennsylvania. If Biden wins in Penn. Trump's bath to victory is very narrow, requiring him to win basically all of the other states considered toss-ups, and even then it would be a one electoral vote victory. That being said, another high rated poll shows Biden ahead by 2 in Pennsylvania.

Fox News, which has a good track record for polling, despite what you may think about their news coverage, has Biden up in North Carolina and up by a wider margin in Arizona. North Carolina is actually favored for Biden now according to Fivethirtyeight. If those two states vote Biden, Trump would need to win 3/4 in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Wisconsin seems like it would be the most likely to flip due to recent unrest, but that hasn't seemed to sway voters in recent polling.

Good news for Trump is that Florida is getting closer. Losing Florida effectively ends any hope for reelection for Trump. A recent top pollster has the race at even among likely voters, with a slight Trump lead among registered voters (which is a bit strange in itself because republicans tend to do better among likely voters). Other polls have Biden still leading by a small margin.

Polls are consistently showing a practical dead heat in Texas which is very bad for Trump and the republican party in general. Losing Texas would be an existential crisis. If Texas votes Democrat it's almost certain that Arizona will as well due to similar demographic shifts. If this happens, Trump can win Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and still lose.

It's still unlikely Trump will lose Texas, but the important thing is that he has to spend money there. Biden has been outraising him, and being forced to defend states like Texas and Georgia (another typically red must win state that's almost a pure toss up) makes it hard to cut into the rust belt states where Biden has a bigger lead, and without getting at least one, and more likely two, of those, Trump is very unlikely to win.

As it stands, the situation is that Biden's lead is holding in the states he needs, and Trump's must win states are competitive. Polls would have to be waaaay further off than they were in 2016 for Trump to have a chance as the situation currently stands. He needs to shift the narrative, but that's really not happening. In the press, Trump is being forced to play defense. His comments about soldiers are not playing well. I think his comments about Covid may be even worse since he is actually on tape speaking about how dangerous the virus is in sharp contrast with his public comments downplaying the threat. Trump's position is similar to Hillary's in 2016 in that sense where issues like Benghazi and her emails were hammered in the final stretch of the election. But, unlike Hillary, Trump is already down.

The best hope now would be a Coronavirus vaccine, but it's not clear that Trump would get credit for that (nor should he really because I'm pretty sure anyone in the whitehouse would have funded vaccine research). But it will at least maybe shift the dominant issue in voter's minds and maybe then the law and order message will resonate.

If the story remains focused on Trump, then Biden will win. And that seems to be what's happening. Even on Fox News the current headlines are mostly damage control for Trump, with a few stories about Biden down lower. Considering the current situation, Trump needs to be on the offensive, and due to a combination of authors and media personalities releasing damaging stuff on Trump at right moment (both for their pocketbooks and for any political desires they may have) and Trump's generally bombastic personality, that's going to be hard.

So what do people think about the Bob Woodward tapes of Trump admitting he knew how serious CORVID is and then the President telling everyone he lied to Protect them from panic. Man you cannot make this stuff up.

Not only can he stand in the middle of fifth avenue and shoot people, he can also lie to people about a coming plague and not lose any voters.

I honestly think this should be considered criminal behavior. You can't scream fire in a crowded theater if there's no fire. By the same token, you shouldn't be able to scream "no fire" when there actually is a fire. 

This is a false statement made with knowledge of its falsity that has undoubtedly caused harm and death. It is not protected by the first amendment. He should be jailed, and there should be a deluge of civil lawsuits. 

Of course, there is a question of presidential immunity...

Sadly true, and the reason I'm genuinely worried he'll make another term. Despite all he's done - nay, likely BECAUSE of his 'brazen attitude' - people still support him.

Best part is that Fox News had an article trying to shift the blame and asking if Woodward should be liable for withholding Trump's statements from the public. Somehow an author is responsible for reporting the information that the President knew, but the President isn't. That's a gold medal performance in mental gymnastics.

Gross. Just gross. How the hell are Fox News allowed to call themselves news? Could they tongue Trump's asshole any deeper? Theor oral tendrils might as well be hentai tentacles. 

Today is the 19th anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks. I've spent most of it in tears. You know why? Because I never thought I'd live to see the day when I looked back on such an anniversary nostalgically. Here we are though. "What's with that", you ask? The September 11th attacks of 2001 formed a national crisis that brought us together as a nation!! When I look at America today, I see us in crisis now too...but I don't see unity anymore. Instead, I see a nation on the verge of civil war.

In response to the 9/11 attacks, say what you will about these efforts, but we used our military to attack our enemies. Today, we instead use our military to attack each other! The army gets deployed on our streets here at home to quell social discontent. By a president who, as we have recently learned with more clarity than ever, hates our troops!! (They deserved to die, you know? Pssh, suckers!) Remember when we were one nation? Remember when we used to stand up for ourselves against our enemies instead of defending them when they help murder our soldiers? (Haha, losers!) Remember when national crises brought us together instead of being used to tear us apart and turn us against our allies and against each other? Remember when we were America?!

I disown this America. This isn't my country. My country is the one my dad fought for, and he wasn't a worthless loser, he was a patriot who believed in concepts like honor and duty that the current occupant of the Oval Office could never begin to understand or dream of living up to in a million years. He was drafted to serve in Vietnam, but he didn't make up shit about "bone spurs", he did his duty whether or not he believed in the mission. He never really recovered either physically or psychologically and those of us who loved him paid the price. That's what his country did for him, but he never stopped believing in it anyway. That's what honor looks like! What a loser, amirite? What a nation of grade-A SUUUUUUCKERROOOOONNIIIEEESSSS, HAHAHAHAAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAAA!!! Funny, right?! It's HILARIOUS to kill people and then mock their corpses because they're just other Americans anyway! It's not like they're respectable hostile foreign dictators who hate us and everything we've ever stood for!

Gee, I wonder why our active-duty service members, normally a Republican bunch, seem to be leaning toward supporting Biden, the Democrat, in this election.

Talk me down. Somebody talk me down! I'm seriously struggling to control my rage right now.

Republicans are like the contents of a sandwich. Brought up on a farm, often a complete mess, and always in-bread.