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Forums - Politics - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

Bofferbrauer2 on 01 September 2020
Mnementh said:
538 about Minnesota: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-minnesota-could-be-the-next-midwestern-state-to-go-red/

Seriously, I did expect Minnesota to be more red than it is already. Midwest and blue don't mix except maybe in Illinois.



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Dulfite on 01 September 2020
EnricoPallazzo said:
Dulfite said:

I've been monitoring this on a spreadsheet. I will update for August shortly, which will impact it I think a good amount.

RCP average January - July of 2016 shows Hillary leading Trump by 4.33 points, on average. 2020 January - July shows Biden leading Trump by 6.44 on average. So through July, Joe is doing better. But the REALLY interesting part is that enthusiasm polls, which actually gets people out the door to vote, show both Hillary and Joe getting crushed by Trump, but especially Joe. There was a 13 point gap in voter enthusiasm between Hillary and Donald in November 2016 with Trump having more, and a whopping 28 point gap in favor of Donald over Joe for 2020 as of July.

So while Biden is doing better than Clinton in who people would vote for polls, he is doing far worse than Clinton in enthusiasm. And that's going to hurt particularly in this election, because instead of just driving somewhere to vote now you have to submit request for absentee ballot, figure out how to fill it out exactly correctly, mail it to the right place by the right date, and all for a guy not many are excited for.

Is there any system to prevent people on requesting a ballot, receiving it home but still going to vote in person?

Apathy, primarily. The less enthusiastic someone is about an election the less likely they are willing to put effort into it.



EnricoPallazzo on 01 September 2020
Dulfite said:
EnricoPallazzo said:

Is there any system to prevent people on requesting a ballot, receiving it home but still going to vote in person?

Apathy, primarily. The less enthusiastic someone is about an election the less likely they are willing to put effort into it.

My question was more in the line of what prevents people from voting twice, through mail AND in person as I believe you would need a system to exclude the person from the voting list in case this person requested a ballot.



Dulfite on 01 September 2020
EnricoPallazzo said:
Dulfite said:

Apathy, primarily. The less enthusiastic someone is about an election the less likely they are willing to put effort into it.

My question was more in the line of what prevents people from voting twice, through mail AND in person as I believe you would need a system to exclude the person from the voting list in case this person requested a ballot.

My bad lol



Raven on 01 September 2020
EnricoPallazzo said:
Dulfite said:

Apathy, primarily. The less enthusiastic someone is about an election the less likely they are willing to put effort into it.

My question was more in the line of what prevents people from voting twice, through mail AND in person as I believe you would need a system to exclude the person from the voting list in case this person requested a ballot.

This link goes over some of the current policy regarding mail in votes and absentee ballots, it may not answer your question completely but at least provides some context on the issue:

https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/how-does-vote-by-mail-work-and-does-it-increase-election-fraud/



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EnricoPallazzo on 01 September 2020
Bofferbrauer2 said:
Mnementh said:
538 about Minnesota: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-minnesota-could-be-the-next-midwestern-state-to-go-red/

Seriously, I did expect Minnesota to be more red than it is already. Midwest and blue don't mix except maybe in Illinois.

Stupid comment, every single time I hear Minnesota I remember Soundgarden. I miss Chris Cornell's music.



EnricoPallazzo on 02 September 2020
Dulfite said:
EnricoPallazzo said:

My question was more in the line of what prevents people from voting twice, through mail AND in person as I believe you would need a system to exclude the person from the voting list in case this person requested a ballot.

My bad lol

No worries. Anyway I hope there is no problem with mail voting or people voting twice. The last thing USA needs now is an election result not accepted by one of the sides.



KLXVER on 02 September 2020
EnricoPallazzo said:
Dulfite said:

My bad lol

No worries. Anyway I hope there is no problem with mail voting or people voting twice. The last thing USA needs now is an election result not accepted by one of the sides.

Well hopefully the democrats accept the results when they lose



EnricoPallazzo on 02 September 2020
KLXVER said:
EnricoPallazzo said:

No worries. Anyway I hope there is no problem with mail voting or people voting twice. The last thing USA needs now is an election result not accepted by one of the sides.

Well hopefully the democrats accept the results when they lose

Actually Im more concearned about having a correct result and the republicans. The democrats will scream, riot, loot and run a campaign "not my president" or say the elections were stolen. But imagine a scenario where the republican win on the election date but then over the next days/weeks the results from the states are flipped and then trump loses? Hell could break loose.



KLXVER on 02 September 2020
EnricoPallazzo said:
KLXVER said:

Well hopefully the democrats accept the results when they lose

Actually Im more concearned about having a correct result and the republicans. The democrats will scream, riot, loot and run a campaign "not my president" or say the elections were stolen. But imagine a scenario where the republican win on the election date but then over the next days/weeks the results from the states are flipped and then trump loses? Hell could break loose.

Thats true. That could be a serious situation.