PAOerfulone said:

Deep (Safe) colors: >20% Solid (Likely) colors: 10 - 19.9% Light (Lean) colors: 5 - 9.9% Very light (Tilt) colors: 2 - 4.9% Brown (Toss Up): <2% What you guys are seeing here is a projection of the 2036 Electoral College Map (with 2020 Electoral Vote distribution, it will be updated for 2024) based on current voting % trends, as listed below: | States | EC - 2024 (2020, +/-) | 2004 | 2020 | Trend | 2036 (Projection) | | Alabama | 8 (9, -1) | R - 25.7 | R - 25.5 | Left - 0.2 | R - 25.3 | | Alaska | 3 (3, 0) | R - 25.6 | R - 10.1 | Left - 15.5 | D - 5.4 | | Arizona | 12 (11, +1) | R - 10.5 | D - 0.3 | Left - 10.8 | D -11.1 | | Arkansas | 6 (6, 0) | R - 9.9 | R - 27.6 | Right - 17.7 | R - 45.3 | | California | 54 (55, -1) | D - 9.9 | D - 29.2 | Left - 19.3 | D - 48.5 | | Colorado | 10 (9, +1) | R - 4.7 | D - 13.5 | Left - 18.2 | D - 31.7 | | Connecticut | 7 (7, 0) | D - 10.4 | D - 20.1 | Left - 9.7 | D - 29.8 | | Delaware | 3 (3, 0) | D - 7.5 | D - 19 | Left - 11.5 | D - 30.8 | | D.C. | 3 (3, 0) | D - 79.9 | D - 87.6 | Left - 7.7 | D - 95.3 | | Florida | 31 (29, +2) | R - 5 | R - 3.3 | Left - 1.7 | R - 1.6 | | Georgia | 16 (16, 0) | R - 16.6 | D - 0.2 | Left - 16.8 | D - 17 | | Hawaii | 4 (4, 0) | D - 8.7 | D - 29.4 | Left - 20.7 | D - 50.1 | | Idaho | 4 (4, 0) | R - 38.2 | R - 30.8 | Left - 7.4 | R - 23.4 | | Illinois | 19 (20, -1) | D - 10.3 | D - 16.9 | Left - 6.6 | D - 23.5 | | Indiana | 11 (11, 0) | R - 20.6 | R - 16.1 | Left - 4.5 | R - 11.6 | | Iowa | 6 (6, 0) | R - 0.6 | R - 8.2 | Right - 7.6 | R - 15.8 | | Kansas | 6 (6, 0) | R - 25.4 | R - 14.8 | Left - 10.6 | R - 4.2 | | Kentucky | 8 (8, 0) | R - 19.8 | R - 25.9 | Right - 6.1 | R - 32 | | Louisiana | 8 (8, 0) | R - 14.5 | R - 18.6 | Right - 4.1 | R - 22.7 | | Maine | 4 (4, 0) | D - 9 | D - 9.1 | Left - 0.1 | D - 9.2 | | Maryland | 10 (10, 0) | D - 13 | D - 33.4 | Left - 20.4 | D - 53.8 | | Massachusetts | 11 (11, 0) | D - 25.2 | D - 33.6 | Left - 8.4 | D - 42 | | Michigan | 15 (16, -1) | D - 3.4 | D - 2.8 | Right - 0.6 | D - 2.2 | | Minnesota | 9 (10, -1) | D - 3.4 | D - 7.2 | Left - 3.8 | D - 11 | | Mississippi | 6 (6, 0) | R - 19.7 | R - 16.5 | Left - 3.2 | R - 13.3 | | Missouri | 10 (10, 0) | R - 7.2 | R - 15.4 | Right - 8.2 | R - 23.6 | | Montana | 4 (3, +1) | R - 20.5 | R - 16.3 | Left - 4.2 | R - 12.1 | | Nebraska | 5 (5, 0) | R - 33.3 | R - 19.1 | Left - 14.2 | R - 4.9 | | Nevada | 6 (6, 0) | R - 2.6 | D - 2.4 | Left - 5 | D - 7.4 | | New Hampshire | 4 (4, 0) | D - 1.4 | D - 7.4 | Left - 6 | D - 13.4 | | New Jersey | 14 (14, 0) | D - 6.8 | D - 15.9 | Left - 9.1 | D - 25 | | New Mexico | 5 (5, 0) | R - 0.8 | D - 10.8 | Left - 11.6 | D - 22.4 | | New York | 28 (29, -1) | D - 18.1 | D - 23.1 | Left - 5 | D - 28.1 | | North Carolina | 16 (15, +1) | R - 12.5 | R - 1.4 | Left - 11.1 | D - 9.7 | | North Dakota | 3 (3, 0) | R - 27.4 | R - 33.6 | Right - 6.2 | R - 39.8 | | Ohio | 17 (18, -1) | R - 2.1 | R - 8 | Right - 5.9 | R - 13.9 | | Oklahoma | 7 (7, 0) | R - 31.2 | R - 33.1 | Right - 1.9 | R - 35 | | Oregon | 8 (7, +1) | D - 4.2 | D - 16.2 | Left - 12 | D - 28.2 | | Pennsylvania | 19 (20, -1) | D - 2.5 | D - 1.2 | Right - 1.3 | R - 0.1 | | Rhode Island | 3 (4, -1) | D - 20.7 | D - 20.9 | Left - 0.2 | D - 21.1 | | South Carolina | 9 (9, 0) | R - 17.1 | R - 11.7 | Left - 5.4 | R - 6.3 | | South Dakota | 3 (3, 0) | R - 21.5 | R - 26.2 | Right - 4.7 | R - 30.9 | | Tennessee | 11 (11, 0) | R - 14.3 | R - 23.2 | Right - 8.2 | R - 31.4 | | Texas | 41 (38, +3) | R - 22.9 | R - 5.6 | Left - 17.3 | D - 11.7 | | Utah* | 6 (6, 0) | R - 46.3 | R - 20.5 | Left - 25.8 | D - 5.3 | | Vermont | 3 (3, 0) | D - 20.1 | D - 35.6 | Left - 15.5 | D - 51.1 | | Virginia | 13 (13, 0) | R - 8.2 | D - 10.2 | Left - 18.4 | D - 28.6 | | Washington | 12 (12, 0) | D - 7.2 | D - 19.4 | Left - 12.2 | D - 31.6 | | West Virginia | 4 (5, -1) | R - 12.9 | R - 38.9 | Right - 26 | R - 64.9 | | Wisconsin | 10 (10, 0) | D - 0.4 | D - 0.7 | Left - 0.3 | D - 1 | | Wyoming | 3 (3, 0) | R - 39.9 | R - 43.7 | Right - 3.8 | R - 47.5 | | Electoral Count | 538 (Actual Results) | R - 298-240 (286-251) | D - 302-236 (306-232) | | D - 349-189 |
R = Republican D = Democrat * = Bullshit (Trump was so unpopular among Mormons that I really doubt that Utah is flipping left THAT much, if at all. If the GOP gets ANY other candidate on the ballot, it'll swing right back the other way.) The reasons I went with 2004 as a comparison is because that was the last time a Republican incumbent was running for reelection (Bush Jr.) and I thought 4 elections and 16 years were nice even numbers to compare to. If we look at the table and how the 2024 Electoral Map would've effected the races in '04 and this year, it gets pretty clear why the Republicans want to keep the Electoral College. Because it's the best shot they have of winning the election. Because with how the vast majority of these states, 36 of them + D.C. to be exact, have been trending further to the left, they wouldn't stand a chance if it was decided via the popular vote. But, based on all these trends, it looks like it's not going to matter either way. Even if some or most of these states aren't actually trending they way the numbers say they are (Utah going blue? Are you kidding me?) It highlights what we have already known for a while, that the "Blue Wave" is coming. I thought this might give us a better idea of 'where' it's coming from. If these trends are accurate, the deep blue states like CA, WA, OR, CO, VA, NY CT, MA MD, RI, NJ, IL, etc. are going to keep getting bluer. Some of the deep red states like ND, SD, AR, MO, TN, and LA are going to keep getting redder. Some basic shit we already knew. What's interesting to see is some of the states that are projected to swing within the next 16 years. Assuming these are accurate, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas should all be solid blue by 2036. And ironically enough, those are the states where all the Electoral Votes are headed. While the states that are trending red a good chunk of the Rust belt such as Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan are LOSING Electoral Votes. Those 4 states altogether should be worth 57 Electoral Votes in 2024, Texas alone will be worth 41, add Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona to that, and they'd be worth 85. I just find it funny how the very system that Republicans are trying to keep alive is the one that could very well screw them over for years and years to come. What made me raise an eyebrow is that some of these states that are deep red at the moment, might come close to being battlegrounds or even shift blue completely in the near future. States such as Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina could become plausible for the Democrats in the near future and Alaska may even go blue. And some states like Alabama, Mississippi, Montana, and Indiana may not be too far out of reach in 16 years. I'm not sure how these trends are going to go. If they keep continuing like they have been, or if some candidate catches fire from either side and completely throws a curveball into everything or what, but if all of these are accurate and continue down the paths they have been, well, I wouldn't want to be a Republican right now. |