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Forums - Politics - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

Jumpin said:

Your first two paragraphs are factually incorrect: Biden won the vast majority of polls during the primaries, and the candidate with the second most poll wins was Elizabeth Warren - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

Bernie Sanders didn't lose because this mysterious "establishment" turned on him - seriously, that sounds like some kind of QAnon deep state level conspiracy theory. He lost because more people voted for Biden in the primaries, and it wasn't even close.

Further, a large part of the reason that Bernie was so close is because of how fractured the "Establishment" vote was. If you look at the polling for all the progressive candidates (Bernie + Warren) vs all of the establishment candidates (Biden+Bloomberg+Buttigieg+Klobchar+Harris), the lead often widens. Additionally, a lot of people like to say if Warren dropped out sooner, Bernie would have coasted to victory, but there is little evidence of that. A lot of the reason people liked Warren is because her rhetoric was softer than Bernie's and as such, in "second choice candidate" polls, there was a fairly even split between Bernie and Biden.

Bernie's path largely relied on a fractured establishment vote. It doesn't amount to a conspiracy that he lost when that fracturing went away.



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PAOerfulone said:

Deep (Safe) colors: >20%
Solid (Likely) colors: 10 - 19.9%
Light (Lean) colors: 5 - 9.9%
Very light (Tilt) colors: 2 - 4.9%
Brown (Toss Up): <2%

What you guys are seeing here is a projection of the 2036 Electoral College Map (with 2020 Electoral Vote distribution, it will be updated for 2024) based on current voting % trends, as listed below:

StatesEC - 2024 (2020, +/-)20042020Trend2036 (Projection)
Alabama8 (9, -1)R - 25.7R - 25.5Left - 0.2R - 25.3
Alaska3 (3, 0)R - 25.6R - 10.1Left - 15.5D - 5.4
Arizona12 (11, +1)R - 10.5D - 0.3Left - 10.8D -11.1
Arkansas6 (6, 0)R - 9.9R - 27.6Right - 17.7R - 45.3
California54 (55, -1)D - 9.9D - 29.2Left - 19.3D - 48.5
Colorado10 (9, +1)R - 4.7D - 13.5Left - 18.2D - 31.7
Connecticut7 (7, 0)D - 10.4D - 20.1Left - 9.7D - 29.8
Delaware3 (3, 0)D - 7.5D - 19Left - 11.5D - 30.8
D.C.3 (3, 0)D - 79.9D - 87.6Left - 7.7D - 95.3
Florida31 (29, +2)R - 5R - 3.3Left - 1.7R - 1.6
Georgia16 (16, 0)R - 16.6D - 0.2Left - 16.8D - 17
Hawaii4 (4, 0)D - 8.7D - 29.4Left - 20.7D - 50.1
Idaho4 (4, 0)R - 38.2R - 30.8Left - 7.4R - 23.4
Illinois19 (20, -1)D - 10.3D - 16.9Left - 6.6D - 23.5
Indiana11 (11, 0)R - 20.6R - 16.1Left - 4.5R - 11.6
Iowa6 (6, 0)R - 0.6R - 8.2Right - 7.6R - 15.8
Kansas6 (6, 0)R - 25.4R - 14.8Left - 10.6R - 4.2
Kentucky8 (8, 0)R - 19.8R - 25.9Right - 6.1R - 32
Louisiana8 (8, 0)R - 14.5R - 18.6Right - 4.1R - 22.7
Maine4 (4, 0)D - 9D - 9.1Left - 0.1D - 9.2
Maryland10 (10, 0)D - 13D - 33.4Left - 20.4D - 53.8
Massachusetts11 (11, 0)D - 25.2D - 33.6Left - 8.4D - 42
Michigan15 (16, -1)D - 3.4D - 2.8Right - 0.6D - 2.2
Minnesota9 (10, -1)D - 3.4D - 7.2Left - 3.8D - 11
Mississippi6 (6, 0)R - 19.7R - 16.5Left - 3.2R - 13.3
Missouri10 (10, 0)R - 7.2R - 15.4Right - 8.2R - 23.6
Montana4 (3, +1)R - 20.5R - 16.3Left - 4.2R - 12.1
Nebraska5 (5, 0)R - 33.3R - 19.1Left - 14.2R - 4.9
Nevada6 (6, 0)R - 2.6D - 2.4Left - 5D - 7.4
New Hampshire4 (4, 0)D - 1.4D - 7.4Left - 6D - 13.4
New Jersey14 (14, 0)D - 6.8D - 15.9Left - 9.1D - 25
New Mexico5 (5, 0)R - 0.8D - 10.8Left - 11.6D - 22.4
New York28 (29, -1)D - 18.1D - 23.1Left - 5D - 28.1
North Carolina16 (15, +1)R - 12.5R - 1.4Left - 11.1D - 9.7
North Dakota3 (3, 0)R - 27.4R - 33.6Right - 6.2R - 39.8
Ohio17 (18, -1)R - 2.1R - 8Right - 5.9R - 13.9
Oklahoma7 (7, 0)R - 31.2R - 33.1Right - 1.9R - 35
Oregon8 (7, +1)D - 4.2D - 16.2Left - 12D - 28.2
Pennsylvania19 (20, -1)D - 2.5D - 1.2Right - 1.3R - 0.1
Rhode Island3 (4, -1)D - 20.7D - 20.9Left - 0.2D - 21.1
South Carolina9 (9, 0)R - 17.1R - 11.7Left - 5.4R - 6.3
South Dakota3 (3, 0)R - 21.5R - 26.2Right - 4.7R - 30.9
Tennessee11 (11, 0)R - 14.3R - 23.2Right - 8.2R - 31.4
Texas41 (38, +3)R - 22.9R - 5.6Left - 17.3D - 11.7
Utah*6 (6, 0)R - 46.3R - 20.5Left - 25.8D - 5.3
Vermont3 (3, 0)D - 20.1D - 35.6Left - 15.5D - 51.1
Virginia13 (13, 0)R - 8.2D - 10.2Left - 18.4D - 28.6
Washington12 (12, 0)D - 7.2D - 19.4Left - 12.2D - 31.6
West Virginia4 (5, -1)R - 12.9R - 38.9Right - 26R - 64.9
Wisconsin10 (10, 0)D - 0.4D - 0.7Left - 0.3D - 1
Wyoming3 (3, 0)R - 39.9R - 43.7Right - 3.8R - 47.5
Electoral Count538 (Actual Results)R - 298-240 (286-251)D - 302-236 (306-232)D - 349-189

R = Republican
D = Democrat
* = Bullshit (Trump was so unpopular among Mormons that I really doubt that Utah is flipping left THAT much, if at all. If the GOP gets ANY other candidate on the ballot, it'll swing right back the other way.)

The reasons I went with 2004 as a comparison is because that was the last time a Republican incumbent was running for reelection (Bush Jr.) and I thought 4 elections and 16 years were nice even numbers to compare to. If we look at the table and how the 2024 Electoral Map would've effected the races in '04 and this year, it gets pretty clear why the Republicans want to keep the Electoral College. Because it's the best shot they have of winning the election. Because with how the vast majority of these states, 36 of them + D.C. to be exact, have been trending further to the left, they wouldn't stand a chance if it was decided via the popular vote. But, based on all these trends, it looks like it's not going to matter either way. Even if some or most of these states aren't actually trending they way the numbers say they are (Utah going blue? Are you kidding me?) It highlights what we have already known for a while, that the "Blue Wave" is coming. I thought this might give us a better idea of 'where' it's coming from. 

If these trends are accurate, the deep blue states like CA, WA, OR, CO, VA, NY CT, MA MD, RI, NJ, IL, etc. are going to keep getting bluer. Some of the deep red states like ND, SD, AR, MO, TN, and LA are going to keep getting redder. Some basic shit we already knew. 

What's interesting to see is some of the states that are projected to swing within the next 16 years. Assuming these are accurate, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas should all be solid blue by 2036. And ironically enough, those are the states where all the Electoral Votes are headed. While the states that are trending red a good chunk of the Rust belt such as Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan are LOSING Electoral Votes. Those 4 states altogether should be worth 57 Electoral Votes in 2024, Texas alone will be worth 41, add Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona to that, and they'd be worth 85. I just find it funny how the very system that Republicans are trying to keep alive is the one that could very well screw them over for years and years to come. 

What made me raise an eyebrow is that some of these states that are deep red at the moment, might come close to being battlegrounds or even shift blue completely in the near future. States such as Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina could become plausible for the Democrats in the near future and Alaska may even go blue. And some states like Alabama, Mississippi, Montana, and Indiana may not be too far out of reach in 16 years.

I'm not sure how these trends are going to go. If they keep continuing like they have been, or if some candidate catches fire from either side and completely throws a curveball into everything or what, but if all of these are accurate and continue down the paths they have been, well, I wouldn't want to be a Republican right now.

I would have put Texas as lean and Utah as tilt, but for the rest, my prediction would have been similar to yours - without any calculations however. I would also have kept Michigan as lean instead of tilt, but seeing your numbers, I might be off here...



PAOerfulone said:

Deep (Safe) colors: >20%
Solid (Likely) colors: 10 - 19.9%
Light (Lean) colors: 5 - 9.9%
Very light (Tilt) colors: 2 - 4.9%
Brown (Toss Up): <2%

What you guys are seeing here is a projection of the 2036 Electoral College Map (with 2020 Electoral Vote distribution, it will be updated for 2024) based on current voting % trends, as listed below:

StatesEC - 2024 (2020, +/-)20042020Trend2036 (Projection)
Alabama8 (9, -1)R - 25.7R - 25.5Left - 0.2R - 25.3
Alaska3 (3, 0)R - 25.6R - 10.1Left - 15.5D - 5.4
Arizona12 (11, +1)R - 10.5D - 0.3Left - 10.8D -11.1
Arkansas6 (6, 0)R - 9.9R - 27.6Right - 17.7R - 45.3
California54 (55, -1)D - 9.9D - 29.2Left - 19.3D - 48.5
Colorado10 (9, +1)R - 4.7D - 13.5Left - 18.2D - 31.7
Connecticut7 (7, 0)D - 10.4D - 20.1Left - 9.7D - 29.8
Delaware3 (3, 0)D - 7.5D - 19Left - 11.5D - 30.8
D.C.3 (3, 0)D - 79.9D - 87.6Left - 7.7D - 95.3
Florida31 (29, +2)R - 5R - 3.3Left - 1.7R - 1.6
Georgia16 (16, 0)R - 16.6D - 0.2Left - 16.8D - 17
Hawaii4 (4, 0)D - 8.7D - 29.4Left - 20.7D - 50.1
Idaho4 (4, 0)R - 38.2R - 30.8Left - 7.4R - 23.4
Illinois19 (20, -1)D - 10.3D - 16.9Left - 6.6D - 23.5
Indiana11 (11, 0)R - 20.6R - 16.1Left - 4.5R - 11.6
Iowa6 (6, 0)R - 0.6R - 8.2Right - 7.6R - 15.8
Kansas6 (6, 0)R - 25.4R - 14.8Left - 10.6R - 4.2
Kentucky8 (8, 0)R - 19.8R - 25.9Right - 6.1R - 32
Louisiana8 (8, 0)R - 14.5R - 18.6Right - 4.1R - 22.7
Maine4 (4, 0)D - 9D - 9.1Left - 0.1D - 9.2
Maryland10 (10, 0)D - 13D - 33.4Left - 20.4D - 53.8
Massachusetts11 (11, 0)D - 25.2D - 33.6Left - 8.4D - 42
Michigan15 (16, -1)D - 3.4D - 2.8Right - 0.6D - 2.2
Minnesota9 (10, -1)D - 3.4D - 7.2Left - 3.8D - 11
Mississippi6 (6, 0)R - 19.7R - 16.5Left - 3.2R - 13.3
Missouri10 (10, 0)R - 7.2R - 15.4Right - 8.2R - 23.6
Montana4 (3, +1)R - 20.5R - 16.3Left - 4.2R - 12.1
Nebraska5 (5, 0)R - 33.3R - 19.1Left - 14.2R - 4.9
Nevada6 (6, 0)R - 2.6D - 2.4Left - 5D - 7.4
New Hampshire4 (4, 0)D - 1.4D - 7.4Left - 6D - 13.4
New Jersey14 (14, 0)D - 6.8D - 15.9Left - 9.1D - 25
New Mexico5 (5, 0)R - 0.8D - 10.8Left - 11.6D - 22.4
New York28 (29, -1)D - 18.1D - 23.1Left - 5D - 28.1
North Carolina16 (15, +1)R - 12.5R - 1.4Left - 11.1D - 9.7
North Dakota3 (3, 0)R - 27.4R - 33.6Right - 6.2R - 39.8
Ohio17 (18, -1)R - 2.1R - 8Right - 5.9R - 13.9
Oklahoma7 (7, 0)R - 31.2R - 33.1Right - 1.9R - 35
Oregon8 (7, +1)D - 4.2D - 16.2Left - 12D - 28.2
Pennsylvania19 (20, -1)D - 2.5D - 1.2Right - 1.3R - 0.1
Rhode Island3 (4, -1)D - 20.7D - 20.9Left - 0.2D - 21.1
South Carolina9 (9, 0)R - 17.1R - 11.7Left - 5.4R - 6.3
South Dakota3 (3, 0)R - 21.5R - 26.2Right - 4.7R - 30.9
Tennessee11 (11, 0)R - 14.3R - 23.2Right - 8.2R - 31.4
Texas41 (38, +3)R - 22.9R - 5.6Left - 17.3D - 11.7
Utah*6 (6, 0)R - 46.3R - 20.5Left - 25.8D - 5.3
Vermont3 (3, 0)D - 20.1D - 35.6Left - 15.5D - 51.1
Virginia13 (13, 0)R - 8.2D - 10.2Left - 18.4D - 28.6
Washington12 (12, 0)D - 7.2D - 19.4Left - 12.2D - 31.6
West Virginia4 (5, -1)R - 12.9R - 38.9Right - 26R - 64.9
Wisconsin10 (10, 0)D - 0.4D - 0.7Left - 0.3D - 1
Wyoming3 (3, 0)R - 39.9R - 43.7Right - 3.8R - 47.5
Electoral Count538 (Actual Results)R - 298-240 (286-251)D - 302-236 (306-232)D - 349-189

R = Republican
D = Democrat
* = Bullshit (Trump was so unpopular among Mormons that I really doubt that Utah is flipping left THAT much, if at all. If the GOP gets ANY other candidate on the ballot, it'll swing right back the other way.)

The reasons I went with 2004 as a comparison is because that was the last time a Republican incumbent was running for reelection (Bush Jr.) and I thought 4 elections and 16 years were nice even numbers to compare to. If we look at the table and how the 2024 Electoral Map would've effected the races in '04 and this year, it gets pretty clear why the Republicans want to keep the Electoral College. Because it's the best shot they have of winning the election. Because with how the vast majority of these states, 36 of them + D.C. to be exact, have been trending further to the left, they wouldn't stand a chance if it was decided via the popular vote. But, based on all these trends, it looks like it's not going to matter either way. Even if some or most of these states aren't actually trending they way the numbers say they are (Utah going blue? Are you kidding me?) It highlights what we have already known for a while, that the "Blue Wave" is coming. I thought this might give us a better idea of 'where' it's coming from. 

If these trends are accurate, the deep blue states like CA, WA, OR, CO, VA, NY CT, MA MD, RI, NJ, IL, etc. are going to keep getting bluer. Some of the deep red states like ND, SD, AR, MO, TN, and LA are going to keep getting redder. Some basic shit we already knew. 

What's interesting to see is some of the states that are projected to swing within the next 16 years. Assuming these are accurate, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas should all be solid blue by 2036. And ironically enough, those are the states where all the Electoral Votes are headed. While the states that are trending red a good chunk of the Rust belt such as Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan are LOSING Electoral Votes. Those 4 states altogether should be worth 57 Electoral Votes in 2024, Texas alone will be worth 41, add Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona to that, and they'd be worth 85. I just find it funny how the very system that Republicans are trying to keep alive is the one that could very well screw them over for years and years to come. 

What made me raise an eyebrow is that some of these states that are deep red at the moment, might come close to being battlegrounds or even shift blue completely in the near future. States such as Kansas, Nebraska, South Carolina could become plausible for the Democrats in the near future and Alaska may even go blue. And some states like Alabama, Mississippi, Montana, and Indiana may not be too far out of reach in 16 years.

I'm not sure how these trends are going to go. If they keep continuing like they have been, or if some candidate catches fire from either side and completely throws a curveball into everything or what, but if all of these are accurate and continue down the paths they have been, well, I wouldn't want to be a Republican right now.

Honestly, I think Trump was such a weird candidate that it's nearly impossible to extrapolate much based on the last two elections. He's deeply unpopular yet has been great at turning out his voters... and possibly others. There's also the fact that this election was held during the pandemic which limited the methods that Democrats used to campaign and may have had some effect on turnout (was turnout higher because of more access to mail in ballots? Would it have been even higher without Covid?) Not to mention that in the near future Trump's impact on the party is a question mark.

We've generally had sane people running for president. I'm not sure how much you extrapolate that to elections where... hopefully... we'll have two sane candidates.

Of course, you could also argue that Trump is not an anomaly but a the logical next step in Republican candidates. 

Cyran said:
Rab said:

Except you miss a lot that gave the impression Biden didn't have the enthusiasm (very poor doner turn out numbers, most donors by far being super packs and corporates including wall street, very small and I mean small lack luster rallies, very low campaign funding, weak policies, all in stark contrast to Bernie) with voters but was supported by the Establishment Media and Dems to make him appear to be the chosen one and only choice, could have been Bernie if the Dems backed him

Biden had next to no one excited about his Status quo almost no policies bland talking points, yet he was put on a pedestal by the Establishment, he got boosted in the electorates eyes, again this could have been Bernie with the same support 

The fact you said the Est Dems choose their man because they agreed with him speaks the loudest against Biden, it's the Est Dems status quo, "don't change anything" ideas  that the young and working class hate about them, this will bite them on the ass come 2024, the Dems have no mandate or vision and are seen by new voters as Republican "lite" 

Primaries and General elections are not the same thing.  Youth vote was actually way up this general election and Biden won it fairly handily.  Could Bernie have won it bigger maybe but there are many people like my self that believe it would not have compensated for the lost of suburban voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia.

Have to fight by the rules given not the one we want and the reality is running the score up in solid blue states even more would not won the election.

It impossible to know what would of happen but I know Biden won and I don't know and am very skeptical Bernie would have won.  

There's also the fact that Sanders did really poorly among black voters in primaries. That could have been particularly problematic in Georgia where black voters are about a third of the electorate or so, and the margin of victory was so narrow. That means Trump could have won by taking 2/4 in PA, AZ, MI, or WI. Would have been real close...



Supreme Court denied the petition to block certification in Texas. There were no dissents (which doesn't necessarily mean the whole court agreed, but that they didn't feel strongly enough to want to be on the record). Guess the judges Trump appointed are in on the conspiracy. I knew it was smart of me to send Kavanaugh that case of beer. He likes beer.

The result is obvious. I was hoping the court would have went a bit further and made a strong statement. That's not something required, or even typical in these cases, but it'd be good if they did to make it clear they're not going to accept any more frivolous lawsuits, and maybe to even go a step further to clarify that they won't participate in a hysterically inept coup. That'd be nice.

On the other hand, you could say that they made a point by treating the case with the seriousness it warranted. It was dismissed within minutes with a sentence. The best part is that Justice Alito sped up the process just so he could dismiss it faster XD.

Last edited by JWeinCom - on 08 December 2020

JWeinCom said:

Supreme Court denied the petition to block certification in Texas. There were no dissents (which doesn't necessarily mean the whole court agreed, but that they didn't feel strongly enough to want to be on the record). Guess the judges Trump appointed are in on the conspiracy. I knew it was smart of me to send Kavanaugh that case of beer. He likes beer.

The result is obvious. I was hoping the court would have went a bit further and made a strong statement. That's not something required, or even typical in these cases, but it'd be good if they did to make it clear they're not going to accept any more frivolous lawsuits, and maybe to even go a step further to clarify that they won't participate in a hysterically inept coup. That'd be nice.

On the other hand, you could say that they made a point by treating the case with the seriousness it warranted. It was dismissed within minutes with a sentence. The best part is that Justice Alito sped up the process just so he could dismiss it faster XD.

It is reassuring to see that a court that leans conservative by 6:3 and where a third of the justice were appointed by Trump has rejected the suit.

It's getting even crazier now, Texas is apparently suing to get the results thrown out in four states: https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-12-08/long-shot-texas-case-urges-supreme-court-to-act-on-trump-election-challenges

Hopefully this is thrown out just as decisively, this is getting insane, I don't recall ever seeing anything like this happen in a developed nation.

 



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curl-6 said:
JWeinCom said:

Supreme Court denied the petition to block certification in Texas. There were no dissents (which doesn't necessarily mean the whole court agreed, but that they didn't feel strongly enough to want to be on the record). Guess the judges Trump appointed are in on the conspiracy. I knew it was smart of me to send Kavanaugh that case of beer. He likes beer.

The result is obvious. I was hoping the court would have went a bit further and made a strong statement. That's not something required, or even typical in these cases, but it'd be good if they did to make it clear they're not going to accept any more frivolous lawsuits, and maybe to even go a step further to clarify that they won't participate in a hysterically inept coup. That'd be nice.

On the other hand, you could say that they made a point by treating the case with the seriousness it warranted. It was dismissed within minutes with a sentence. The best part is that Justice Alito sped up the process just so he could dismiss it faster XD.

It is reassuring to see that a court that leans conservative by 6:3 and where a third of the justice were appointed by Trump has rejected the suit.

It's getting even crazier now, Texas is apparently suing to get the results thrown out in four states: https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2020-12-08/long-shot-texas-case-urges-supreme-court-to-act-on-trump-election-challenges

Hopefully this is thrown out just as decisively, this is getting insane, I don't recall ever seeing anything like this happen in a developed nation.

 

It's scary to think what could have happened if Trump was actually competent. 



If no one else has a case for fraud, why would Texas?

Is it just me or is it weird that a state can sue at all, let alone other states that have nothing to do with them.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.


There's also the fact that Sanders did really poorly among black voters in primaries. That could have been particularly problematic in Georgia where black voters are about a third of the electorate or so, and the margin of victory was so narrow. That means Trump could have won by taking 2/4 in PA, AZ, MI, or WI. Would have been real close...

Sanders platform of democratic socialism appears to resonate with voters under 30. When it came to young people, the Vermont senator comfortably beat Biden in every state’s exit polling.

The same holds true among young, black voters. Although Biden’s Obama-era legacy sustained his loyalty primarily among black elders, black Democrats under 30 overwhelmingly supported Sanders.

Sanders also won the overall majority of Latinos far ahead of Biden 

Sanders won overwhelmingly the under 40's in all demographics (future of the party), Biden won the over 40's (not the future of the party)

Those demographics are the future of the Dem party, those groups loved what Sanders as a socialist was talking 

Last edited by Rab - on 09 December 2020

Rab said:

There's also the fact that Sanders did really poorly among black voters in primaries. That could have been particularly problematic in Georgia where black voters are about a third of the electorate or so, and the margin of victory was so narrow. That means Trump could have won by taking 2/4 in PA, AZ, MI, or WI. Would have been real close...

Sanders platform of democratic socialism appears to resonate with voters under 30. When it came to young people, the Vermont senator comfortably beat Biden in every state’s exit polling.

The same holds true among young, black voters. Although Biden’s Obama-era legacy sustained his loyalty primarily among black elders, black Democrats under 30 overwhelmingly supported Sanders.

Sanders also won the overall majority of Latinos far ahead of Biden 

Sanders won overwhelmingly the under 40's in all demographics (future of the party), Biden won the over 40's (not the future of the party)

Those demographics are the future of the Dem party, those groups loved what Sanders as a socialist was talking 

This is why I think that the democratic party will have to move to the left if they want to avoid another big party emerging there and "stealing" their votes. And they will, considering more and more lawmakers within the party are much more left-leaning than the average establishment democrat and need increasingly to be taken into account.

That said, I think it will take until 2032 for a more leftist leader to gain enough sway amongst the general population and win the primaries against an establishment candidate that's well-liked. 



Your first two paragraphs are factually incorrect: Biden won the vast majority of polls during the primaries, and the candidate with the second most poll wins was Elizabeth Warren - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

Bernie Sanders didn't lose because this mysterious "establishment" turned on him - seriously, that sounds like some kind of QAnon deep state level conspiracy theory. He lost because more people voted for Biden in the primaries, and it wasn't even close.

Why would the Democratic party back Bernie when Biden defeated him?

A better argument is that Sanders would have done worse because he had less support among Democratic voters than Hillary Clinton, and was also more hated by right-wingers.

Of course Sanders would have won if had more supporters, but he didn't, that's why he lost. That's kind of the point of voting.

It's naive to think Sanders would have automatically been able to implement all these massive reforms. That's not how democracy works in Western nations.

Also, what conspiracy? Are you seriously suggesting the election was fraudulent? Do you have any proof of that?

One of the biggest problems is this sort of zealotry on the right, but it clearly occurs on the left, too. Just because your candidate of choice isn't as popular as you think they should be doesn't mean there's a conspiracy.

Your link has information in it that is counter to your characterization, Sanders was second in overall polls (as graphed over time)

Establishment is a real term, as in established (old) Mainstream Media (e.g. CNN, MSNBC, Fox) and the established old guard of the DNC 

It's no secret that the DNC and Mainstream Media ran a campaign of interference round Sanders policies using Rep talking points in a constant barrage of criticism, Biden was generally hidden from view, you would have to be living under a rock to not have been aware of that