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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

haxxiy said:

To be fair, "twice as likely to be reinfected" can be the difference between 90% and 95% risk reduction.

On the other hand, that 95% is incredibly powerful. It's literally off the ELISA charts when you try to measure it, neutralizing not only any SARS-CoV-2 variant but also other Sarbecoviruses. Hopefully the same goes when the opposite happens and someone has a symptomatic breakthrough infection.

The whole kid Covid debate is also rather strange. There have been ~ 360 deaths in the under 18 age group in the US since the beginning of the pandemic - that's less than the deaths from influenza in most years in the past decade, and less than a third of those who died in the 2009 pandemic in that age group. 

"ICUs full of children dying from Covid-19" seems rather alarmistic and inaccurate in face of that data, unless they use the same expression to describe influenza in... well, just about every winter in a pediatric ward, really.

Yeah that last part stood out to me as well, didn't expect that kind of writing from the otherwise level headed reporting.

I looked a bit deeper for actual numbers

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/children-hospitalized-with-covid-19-us-hits-record-number-2021-08-14/

The number of children hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States hit a record high of just over 1,900 on Saturday, as hospitals across the South were stretched to capacity fighting outbreaks caused by the highly transmissible Delta variant.

That's still just 2.4% of total hospitalizations due to Covid-19

A bit more recent numbers

https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

As of August 26, nearly 4.8 million children have tested positive for COVID-19 since the onset of the pandemic. About 204,000 cases were added the past week, marking the second week with child cases at the level of the winter surge of 2020-21. After declining in early summer, child cases have increased exponentially, with over a five-fold increase the past month, rising from about 38,000 cases the week ending July 22nd to nearly 204,000 the past week.

That is quite alarming but severe cases are still rare

At this time, it appears that severe illness due to COVID-19 is uncommon among children. However, there is an urgent need to collect more data on longer-term impacts of the pandemic on children, including ways the virus may harm the long-term physical health of infected children, as well as its emotional and mental health effects.

Considering they're hesitant to give children the vaccine, just in case any long term effects might arise, it's rather odd to let them all get Covid-19 instead...



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SvennoJ said:
haxxiy said:

Yeah that last part stood out to me as well, didn't expect that kind of writing from the otherwise level headed reporting.

I looked a bit deeper for actual numbers

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/children-hospitalized-with-covid-19-us-hits-record-number-2021-08-14/

The number of children hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States hit a record high of just over 1,900 on Saturday, as hospitals across the South were stretched to capacity fighting outbreaks caused by the highly transmissible Delta variant.

That's still just 2.4% of total hospitalizations due to Covid-19

A bit more recent numbers

https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

As of August 26, nearly 4.8 million children have tested positive for COVID-19 since the onset of the pandemic. About 204,000 cases were added the past week, marking the second week with child cases at the level of the winter surge of 2020-21. After declining in early summer, child cases have increased exponentially, with over a five-fold increase the past month, rising from about 38,000 cases the week ending July 22nd to nearly 204,000 the past week.

That is quite alarming but severe cases are still rare

At this time, it appears that severe illness due to COVID-19 is uncommon among children. However, there is an urgent need to collect more data on longer-term impacts of the pandemic on children, including ways the virus may harm the long-term physical health of infected children, as well as its emotional and mental health effects.

Considering they're hesitant to give children the vaccine, just in case any long term effects might arise, it's rather odd to let them all get Covid-19 instead...

It's just extremely odd reporting at times.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/07/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html

Looking at the headlines, you'd expect hell on Earth, but then the example was a children's hospital with 309 beds in Florida, of which 214 are occupied... and only 18 are Covid patients.

We also need to keep in mind that we should  *not* expect people to quickly recover from any particularly nasty viral infection. Interestingly, in the past, the average answer to these long-term symptoms from respiratory infections was just "lol man, tough luck":

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/have-a-month-long-cold-it-s-probably-not-the-flu-1.3255473

Long Covid is a concern but I do feel like it needs a better, narrower definition. Otherwise, it will happen like MISC where Kawasaki Syndrome diagnoses simply were no longer a thing.



 

 

 

 

 

haxxiy said:

It's just extremely odd reporting at times.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/07/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html

Looking at the headlines, you'd expect hell on Earth, but then the example was a children's hospital with 309 beds in Florida, of which 214 are occupied... and only 18 are Covid patients.

We also need to keep in mind that we should  *not* expect people to quickly recover from any particularly nasty viral infection. Interestingly, in the past, the average answer to these long-term symptoms from respiratory infections was just "lol man, tough luck":

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/have-a-month-long-cold-it-s-probably-not-the-flu-1.3255473

Long Covid is a concern but I do feel like it needs a better, narrower definition. Otherwise, it will happen like MISC where Kawasaki Syndrome diagnoses simply were no longer a thing.

Yep, it's simply too early to tell what the real lasting effects are or can be. We suspect my wife had Covid in Februari 2020 and she finally got her sense of smell back about a month or two ago. Maybe the vaccines fixed it lol.

Anyway the headlines are no fun
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canada-on-course-for-worst-wave-of-covid-19-yet-new-modelling-data-shows-1.5572673
https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/more-surgeries-postponed-in-alberta-because-of-jump-in-covid-19-1.5572886

But indeed there is no actual rise in child cases (percentage wise), there is simply a rise in total cases sending more unvaccinated kids to the hospitals
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/more-kids-hospitalized-with-covid-19-in-u-s-states-with-lower-vaccination-rates-cdc-report-finds-1.5573431

However, the study added: "The proportions of hospitalized children and adolescents with severe disease were similar before and during the period of Delta predominance."

CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky highlighted the studies Thursday in the White House COVID-19 briefing, saying they showed children were not getting more severe disease from the Delta variant. "And although we are seeing more cases in children, and more overall cases, these studies demonstrated that there was not increased disease severity in children. Instead, more children have COVID-19 because there is more disease in the community," she said.

Still not all that re-assuring when overall cases keep going up. And here we get vague guidelines like, pls everyone reduce your contacts by 25% to prevent the wave from getting too big.

Tam also called on all Canadians to limit their contacts as summer comes to a close, sending many back to schools and workplaces. "Right now is not the time to gather in huge numbers with people that are not in your household, without taking significant layers of protection," she said.

And what do we have here in our small town, the annual fairgrounds fair, packed, from Sept 2 to Sept 6 (Labour day weekend) and schools start on the 7th. That's stuff for a stand-up comedy routine :(

https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/come-out-and-have-fun-paris-fall-fair-welcomes-back-guests-in-2021-1.5572298

They put some signs up to pls wear a mask. I cycled by there this afternoon. I did see some people with masks, maybe 5%.

Miller said usually over the five days of the event about 50,000 people pass through. With it being the first year back, he just hopes to reach half of that number. (Population of our town is about 13,000)

I emailed the school with my concerns (Their getting ready for September page is also still not live) dunno whether I should send them to school or keep them home next Tuesday. It will likely be fine, but it only takes a few contagious people to turn that up there into a super spreader event. Then again, we are vaccinated now (and not too long ago for it to be waning off already) and the kids will most likely be fine even if they catch it. And thus we keep going in circles...

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 03 September 2021

Weekly update. Numbers are stabilizing, some going up, some down, most flattening out, world total slightly down.

Numbers remain high creating new strains all the time. Mu is slowly gaining more traction.
https://deadline.com/2021/09/mu-variant-los-angeles-first-cases-new-covid-1234827340/
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/mu-covid-strain-who-what-we-know-b953500.html

Known as B.1.621 or the “Mu variant” according to the World Health Organization nomenclature, it has “a constellation of mutations that indicate potential properties of immune escape,” according to a WHO report released on Monday. “Preliminary data presented to the Virus Evolution Working Group show a reduction in neutralization capacity of convalescent and vaccinee sera similar to that seen for the Beta variant, but this needs to be confirmed by further studies.”

However it's still a variant of interest, not on the concern list (yet). For now it's not gaining much ground on the delta variant (< 0.1%) except in South America (39% of cases in Colombia)

Current strain watch list
https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/




In total 4.43 million new cases were reported last week (slightly down from 4.66 million) to a total of 220,595,328
Also another 68,528 more deaths were reported (down from 71,154) to a total of 4,566,224

Europe is slightly down, USA still going up but very slowly now. Deaths are creeping up and stabilizing.

The continents

Asia reported 1.74 million new cases (down from 1.81 million) and 27,120 more deaths (down from 31,381)
North America reported 1.41 million new cases (slightly down from 1.42 million) and 18,668 more deaths (up from 16,164)
Europe reported 868K new cases (down from 901K) and 10,492 more deaths (slightly up from 10,229)
South America reported 226K new cases (down from 268K) and 7,087 more deaths (slightly down from 7,744)
Africa reported 181K new cases (down from 248K) and 4,996 more deaths (down from 5,445)
Oceania reported 12.1K new cases (slightly down from 13.0K) and 165 deaths (191 last week)

Corners of the world

USA reported 1.16 million new cases (slightly up from 1.14 million) and 11,530 more deaths (up from 9,124)
India reported 296K new cases (up from 257K) and 2,853 more deaths (down from 3,405)
Iran reported 214K new cases (down from 253K) and 4,262 more deaths (slightly down from 4,477)
Brazil reported 152K new cases (down from 176K) and 4,357 more deaths (slightly down from 4,738)
Japan reported 136K new cases (down from 162K) and 387 deaths (263 last week)
South Africa reported 58.6K new cases (down from 80.1K) and 1,974 more deaths (slightly down from 2,204)
Canada reported 24.8K new cases (up from 20.6K) and 116 deaths (101 last week)
South Korea reported 12.0K new cases (slightly down from 12.3K) and 43 deaths (68 last week)
Australia reported 9,364 new cases (up from 6,587) and 41 deaths (16 last week)

Europe in detail

The UK is still creeping up, Norway is having its worst outbreak yet. France, Spain and Denmark are on a downward trend.

New Zealand is putting the cat back in the bag, cases are going down but not out of the woods yet. (3-day peak of 79 daily cases, now back to 53. Outbreak started Aug 17 when cases were below 4 a day from the border)

Australia is still not slowing down, 1,645 new cases yesterday, previous high was 721 on July 30th.



Hiku said:

Don't want to harp on about this, but just a reminder that this is an actual headline from today:



Gunshot Victims Wait as Horse Dewormer Overdoses Overwhelm Hospitals - Rolling Stone

Some are saying 'natural selection', but the problem is that other people are not able to get medical assistance because of these brainiacs.

Hospital Debunks Rolling Stone Ivermectin Poisoning Hoax Story – NewsWars

Rolling Stone magazine left with egg on face after doctor claims ivermectin ODs 'overwhelm' hospital (bizpacreview.com)

Rolling Stone Busted and Shamed For Writing Fakest “Horse Dewormer” Story You’ll Ever See (wiredailynews.com)

The political and professional elite 'brainiacs' sure did stop some people from getting medical assistance that they would've gotten otherwise. Some are saying this isn't the right way to decide who thrives and who suffers.



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Hiku said:
useruserB said:

I swear I already posted all the evidence one would need, I guess some people are just too trusting of venal corporations/institutions/personalities, suffering from mental blocks and blinded by hate, politics and ideological rigidity to such an extent that it renders them unable to fathom the choices that others make and see/accept the truth. 

The FLCCC source you cited, seems to be led by a discredited quack physician.
Frontiers Removes Controversial Ivermectin Paper Pre-Publication | The Scientist Magazine® (the-scientist.com)

And it seems impossible to find the origin of the story regarding the wheelchair bound girl you posted. Any article me and a lot of other people (who are also searching for the origin) find, all refer back to the press conference.

Wouldn't be the first time a senator shares a fabricated story in just the past few months.
But assuming it is true, it states she was part of an experimental trial. Meaning the final version of the vaccine that they shipped to the public is not necessarily the same thing she got.
But assuming that it is, there have been over 5.35 Billion Phizer shots given worldwide, as of Sept 1.

More Than 5.35 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker (bloomberg.com)

This is the only time I've heard of something like this happening, so the odds would be around 1 in 5.35 Billion.

Safe to say, nowhere near 5.35B people have taken the horse drug you're advocating.
Yet it's not difficult to find headlines of people being hospitalized from it.

Both the CDC and Merck, the maker of the drug, urge humans not to take it.

  • No scientific basis for a potential therapeutic effect against COVID-19 from pre-clinical studies; 
  • No meaningful evidence for clinical activity or clinical efficacy in patients with COVID-19 disease, and; 
  • A concerning lack of safety data in the majority of studies.

Merck Statement on Ivermectin use During the COVID-19 Pandemic - Merck.com


But I'm sure that doesn't matter to a conspiracy theorist. If anything, they'll probably believe in it even more if the company behind it says no.

Though considering the above statement from Merck, we consider promoting horse medication to humans as harmful disinformation. So you'll have to find somewhere else to do that.

Anti-vaxxer nutter gets #rekt

Oh and speaking of anti-vaxxers ruining things for everyone (here we go AGAIN):

https://www.thedailybeast.com/miles-teller-gets-covid-after-refusing-vax-bringing-godfather-shoot-to-halt-report-says

As COVID-19 vaccine mandates become more widespread across Hollywood, so too do the names of stars who refuse to get the jab—now including Whiplash star Miles Teller. The actor tested positive for COVID-19 after refusing to get vaccinated or tested for the virus before coming on set, according to the Daily Mail. His positive test led to the production shutdown of Paramount Plus’ The Offer, a show centered around the making of The Godfather. “Miles Teller is not vaccinated. He wouldn’t even get the test,” a source told the outlet. “Now he’s brought the virus to the set and the whole set had to shut down.” Teller’s publicist denied the claim.

The incident marks another misstep for the seemingly eternally troubled show. Teller joined the show in May after actor Armie Hammer stepped down due to sexual assault accusations earlier this year.

Read it at Daily Mail

Granted, Daily Mail isn't the most credible, but it wouldn't surprise me if true given everything we know about how anti-vaxxers DO fuck things up by causing outbreaks, and their ACLU-Amber Heard e-mails story was backed by leaked depositions, so there's that, I guess.

Last edited by KManX89 - on 06 September 2021

Another warning about Ivermectin today
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/scientists-and-health-agencies-warn-against-ivermectin-for-covid-19-saying-it-lacks-concrete-evidence-1.5574145


Still, in the U.S., ivermectin use has skyrocketed, with 88,000 prescriptions filled per week in mid-August.

And those who can’t get a prescription are taking the agricultural route, where a dosage meant for cows and horses — animals that weigh significantly more than humans and have completely different physiologies — creates a real possibility of poisoning.


Anyway should be clear by now. Here is the rest of the article with the origins of the Ivermectin 'myth'

A handful of studies have found that ivermectin gives promising results to fight COVID-19 in a lab setting. Yet while this is an important first step in any drug testing, it doesn’t mean that the same results are achievable in humans.

“The concentrations used in vitro may not be achievable in therapeutic doses," Ruben Hernandez, pharmaceutical chemist at San Borja Arriaran hospital in Santiago, Chile told AFP in January.

In a March 2021 study that looked at 400 patients, researchers found that a five-day course of ivermectin in adults with mild COVID-19 did not improve the resolution of their symptoms.

A comprehensive analysis published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews in late July 2021, which looked at 14 different studies on ivermectin and COVID-19, found that the “reliable evidence available does not support the use of ivermectin for treatment or prevention of COVID‐19.”

The review added that the existing completed studies on the topic are small, “and few are considered high quality.”

Some studies the review looked at, while seemingly showing positive results, were designed in a way that provided only “low-certainty” evidence. For instance, in one of the studies the review looked at, the only outcome for analysis was mortality, but no one in the study died — including those who were receiving no treatment as opposed to receiving ivermectin.

Other studies outside of this review have shown positive results only to be disputed later.

Scientists in Argentina stated in an oft-cited paper last year that ivermectin could prevent 100 per cent of COVID-19 infections.

But critics quickly found issues with the trial, from the eyebrow-raising 100 per cent statistic — something extremely rare in drug trials — to the speedy acceptance of the paper and inconsistencies in the details of the study, such as the number of participants in the study seemingly changing from table to table.

A BuzzFeed News investigation into the paper said that Hector Carvallo, the researcher who oversaw the project, would not share his data widely, even with one of the collaborators on the study, who eventually asked for his name to be removed from it.

On Aug. 26, 2021, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) published an advisory describing the uptick in people using ivermectin.

“Clinical trials and observational studies to evaluate the use of ivermectin to prevent and treat COVID-19 in humans have yielded insufficient evidence for the NIH COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel to recommend its use,” the advisory stated.

“Data from adequately sized, well-designed, and well-conducted clinical trials are needed to provide more specific, evidence-based guidance on the role of ivermectin in the treatment of COVID-19.”

Although the drug has been approved for use with COVID-19 in some countries in Latin America, scientists worldwide have continued to caution that we simply do not have the evidence to support it.

Unfortunately, when health agencies state that they have not approved certain drugs for treatment of COVID-19, some groups don’t see this as health agencies doing their due diligence to ensure only safe and effective treatments reach the public. 

Instead, they claim that evidence of the drug's effectiveness is being deliberately hidden from the public, seeing health agencies and scientists as part of a conspiracy.

All over social media, there are groups like the Manitoba Ivermectin Alliance, which aims to promote ivermectin use with COVID-19. One thousand people have joined this particular Facebook group.

Its founder said in a letter online that “Ivermectin can stop the pandemic in its tracks. However, this information is being suppressed.”

Claims like these are concerning to public health experts.

“On one hand, you have these vaccines, which are arguably the most studied vaccines in human history, we have hundreds of millions of data points showing efficacy and really amazing safety profile,” said Timothy Caulfield, a public health policy expert. “And then on the other hand, you have an unproven therapy, and they are opting for the latter.”

Similarly, Dr. Shazma Mithansi, an ER physician in Edmonton, told CTV News, “There is no evidence to show that Ivermectin has any sort of meaningful effect on treatment or propholaxysis.

“People need to stop taking it. It’s dangerous.” 



At home things aren't looking good at all. The prepare for school page is still "not found" with school starting tomorrow. The local Covid tracking agency has stopped updating in weekends and statutory holidays (today) so no update until after school starts tomorrow. 'Limiting capacity' to the fair is a joke, people are still sanding hip to hip, 95% without masks, same as at the demolition derby in the evening. Yet any fall out that won't be known until next week anyway. Cases are going up with projections to climb exponentially if contacts aren't reduced by 30%. How will that be achieved with more openings, schools starting, just after a long weekend with many people traveling to events.

We have no choice but to send them to school tomorrow, since they'll need to get familiarized with the new procedures together with everyone else. Plus we think the school won't stay open long with the way things are going, better get them some face time with the teacher and other kids before it's all closed again. Time to roll the dice... Meanwhile my wife is resigning to the idea that this might end her... What do you choose, the well-being and future of your kids, or that of your wife. She says its best to send them to school, and she's right, they need it.

This is our outlook

That 25% reduction has already been upped to 30% reduction needed in the past few days. Probably needs to be higher again to stop the train after Labour day weekend.



If you like to take joy in the misfortune others cause themselves, check out https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward/ which chronicles the Facebook/Twitter feeds of antivax/maskers as they fall to Covid. #sorrynotsorry



So Israel is shooting a third round to flatten the curve and is preparing for the fourth round this year. After six months you will be considered unvaxxed again.

There were 607 "covid deaths" in August 2021 in Israel and 2/3 of these were vaccinated. Deaths by vaccination status:

Unvaccinated 218 (35.9%)
1 dose:  14 (2.3%)
2 doses: 313 (51.6%)
3 doses: 62 (10.2%)

579 of the deaths (95.4%) are age 60+

https://twitter.com/RanIsraeli

https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general

Last edited by numberwang - on 06 September 2021

JWeinCom said:

If you like to take joy in the misfortune others cause themselves, check out https://www.reddit.com/r/HermanCainAward/ which chronicles the Facebook/Twitter feeds of antivax/maskers as they fall to Covid. #sorrynotsorry

Wait till you hear it's mostly POCs who are unvaxxed...

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/nyregion/covid-vaccine-black-young-new-yorkers.html