Herd immunity is a veterinary concept, which makes it hard to estimate in human populations since there's a metric ton of sociological and anthropological factors to consider in addition to epidemiological ones. As a rule of thumb, it can be estimated as (R₀ - 1) / R₀. That is to say, if the reproduction number was 2.4, then it's 58.33%. If the UK variant were indeed R=0.4 more contagious, that'd be 64.28%. Some other estimates had come up with a reproduction number as high as 5.7, which would mean the herd immunity threshold is 82.45%...

But like I said, that's a simplistic approximation. People are constantly being born or dying, move their homes, have distinct social circles with distinct degrees of social interaction, etc. which could make it not only higher or lower than the estimates above, but constantly changing with time.

On the other hand, the social aspect of the pandemic will likely end much earlier than the outbreaks themselves once at-risk groups that are only a minority of the population but make up more than 90% of Covid-19 deaths are vaccinated.

...

Now for the Brazilian news, Coronavac's results are out and they seem much better than I was expecting (78% overall, 100% for severe cases). EUA was just requested this morning for it, and the same is going to happen today for the AZ vaccine. These are especially relevant since we can produce both of these locally.

The Butantan Institute has some 10 million doses of imported Coronavac for immediate use and will begin producing up to one million doses a day, with an increase to double that number in April as soon as it is finished making this year's flu vaccines. The Fiocruz Foundation, which will produce the AZ vaccine, also has imported a few million doses, but I'm not sure how rapidly they can produce it.

Pending some unexpected delays, such as Bolsonaro deliberately tampering with the approval procedures, vaccination of at-risk groups will begin on the 20th of this month, for free, in the public healthcare system.

How much longer until people start to listen

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-premier-doug-ford-says-more-extreme-measures-needed-as-covid-19-situation-worsens-1.5258688

Premier Doug Ford delivered a grim warning Friday as COVID-19 cases in Ontario surge to unprecedented levels. He said that if basic public health measures “continue to be ignored” in the province, the consequences “will be dire.” “The shutdown won’t end at the end of January, and we will have to look at more extreme measures,” he said.

Ontario shattered its COVID-19 record Friday as more than 4,200 cases were logged, citing a data backlog that accounts for about 450 of the new infections. However, even if those 450 cases were removed from Friday’s total there would still be a record 3,799 new infections logged.

The steady rise continues, hospitals are nearly at capacity. Despite testing having more than doubled since August, positivity rate has gone up from 0.3% to currently averaging 6%. Instead of slowing down our growth rates are still increasing despite everything having been closed since boxing day. Hopefully it's mostly back log from the holidays, but it's not looking good. Our Spring peak was in the 400s and yesterday the province logged 89 more deaths, surpassing the province's all-time record of 84 deaths recorded on April 30.


Meanwhile the UK logged 1,162 deaths yesterday, Germany 1,059. (Italy peaked at 921 first peak, 993 second peak)

Somehow the UK is ahead of Germany and France (and the entire EU) in terms of vaccination.

Looks like I might have just caught it though, just before I get vaccinated, hopefully it's something else...

Somehow? The UK started about 20 days earlier.

While France and Germany bickered and delayed over which country would provide the most vaccines for the EU, the UK bought from everybody. Germany appears to have broke EU rules to secure themselves 30m vaccines while the EU delays certification of the UK vaccine because of the usual protectionist crap.

Weekly update, not good.


Overall 4.98 million new cases were reported last week (up from 4.16 million) bringing the total to 89,337,765
Also 86,430 more deaths were reported (up from 77,537) bringing that total to 1,920,914

The USA and Europe are about the same for reported cases, more deaths in Europe though.

The continents

North America reported 2.02 million new cases (up from 1.57 million) and 28,763 more deaths (up from 24,369)
Europe reported 1.65 million new cases (up from 1.45 million) and 34,230 more deaths (up from 31,356)
Asia reported 558K new cases (up from 543K) and 7,920 more deaths (down from 9,009)
South America reported 551K new cases (up from 438K) and 10,174 more deaths (up from 8,624)
Africa reported 201K new cases(up from 162K) and 5,335 more deaths (up from 4,172)
Oceania reported 522 new cases and 8 deaths

Corners of the world

USA reported 1.84 million new cases (up from 1.41 million) and 21,704 more deaths (up from 18,182)
Brazil reported 315K new cases (up from 252K) and 6,101 more deaths (up from 4,926)
India reported 129K new cases (down from 134K) and 1,630 more deaths (down from 1,826)
South Africa reported 119K new cases (up from 90.5K) and 3,538 more deaths (up from 2,611)

Canada reported 61.7K new cases (up from 47.5K) and 1,101 deaths (887 last week)
Iran reported 43.1K new cases (up from 42.2K) and 681 deaths (897 last week)
Japan reported 30.9K new cases (up from 24.1K) and 397 deaths (355 last week)
South Korea reported 5.59K new cases (down from 7.00K) and 164 deaths (144 last week)
Australia had 144 new cases, no deaths

Europe in detail


UK, Germany very high, Ireland seems out of control, rising very fast.

Apart from Australia and New Zealand, it seems that only India is still continuing on the right path.
If nothing changes we'll pass 2 million deaths before the end of next week.

(sorry, double post)

Pfizer vaccine appears to be effective against COVID-19 mutations: 

https://news.trust.org/item/20210108022715-m5obt

Does this mean the UK version?
Or one or both of the 2 african mutations?

*edit:
Okay the UK and South African versions are tested, and it appears to work against them too.

What are the totals like now for most countries? Which countries have actually managed to keep the virus at bay? It looks like the west is somewhat equally screwed.