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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

JRPGfan on 08 August 2020
SvennoJ said:

Japan's solution to their new outbreak

https://www.youtube.com/watch?&v=IebwbtGUti0

Of course after the amount of fiddling he did to get that napkin on his face mask...

Why not just keep the mask on, and use a straw, that goes under?



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SvennoJ on 08 August 2020
JRPGfan said:

Why not just keep the mask on, and use a straw, that goes under?

It's also for eating. So unless you like eating pureed food through a straw... :)

You could of course just eat at home, crazy idea.



Bofferbrauer2 on 08 August 2020

It's official, Luxembourg now has made more coronavirus tests than we have inhabitants. Which also makes us the country with the highest tests per population rate (previously hold by Monaco)

Parallel to this, my wife just got the result of her second test (first one in June 18; both were negative).

The number of cases are also going down again after having spiked mid-June through late July.

https://msan.gouvernement.lu/en/graphiques-evolution.html#sg

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 08 August 2020

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

EricHiggin on 09 August 2020
vivster said:
EricHiggin said:

Common sense isn't as common as it used to be. One man's common sense today, is another man's crazy conspiracy theory.

I've been through my fair share of leaders in my career, and more than a few of them did a bang up job in terms of leading by example, though the examples they were setting were terrible much of the time. Now luckily, and with some better advice from others, many of the apprentices had enough brains to leave those crews or companies when those type of 'common sense' leaders were in charge, while many new greenhorns ended up staying once the correct leadership was finally put into place by management. Those companies profits also grew vastly as a result just by chance.

It's part of the reason why the American political system is set up as it is for example. Simply allowing the popular vote to be the end all be all, could lead to disastrous results. The majority isn't always necessarily right, and shouldn't always be allowed to rule with an iron fist. Even if it works the overwhelming majority of the time, all it takes is one major mistake and years if not decades of progress can be halted if not reversed. 'Simply always side with the majority', is not a logical answer.

Now what if your life partner, with a professional career, who you had been with for decades, was telling you what was best in a certain situation they had expertise in, though the majority were saying something quite different, if not the complete opposite? Who to believe? What would common sense suggest?

In terms of intelligence/IQ, what percentage of our smartest people are at a genius level? If it had to side with the majority of the brightest, or the few Einsteins, who would common sense choose?

Again, it's not hard. You just take the least biased source. The two best ways to decide if something is biased is either looking at peer reviews or using your own common sense to determine if the person making a claim would benefit from incorporating their own bias. Science is mostly unbiased and it is set up to be as least bias as possible. You don't trust politicians, you just trust the science. Science is the best way to determine truth, it is in itself perfect. The failings of science are the failings of humans making mistakes. But that's why there is a huge scientific community keeping checks on everyone.

In the end it's not about making the correct decision all the time, it's about making the best possible decision given the information at a time. If that turns out later to be less optimal then it's gonna be that way, it's still better than indecision or being contrarian and doubting everything. Since it is impossible to have perfect information it is natural and prudent to just choose whatever seems the most solid answer at that time. And when it comes to science majority consensus is ALWAYS the correct way to go, even in the rare cases where it turns out false in the end.

"Choice. The 'problem', is choice."



vivster on 09 August 2020
EricHiggin said:
vivster said:

Again, it's not hard. You just take the least biased source. The two best ways to decide if something is biased is either looking at peer reviews or using your own common sense to determine if the person making a claim would benefit from incorporating their own bias. Science is mostly unbiased and it is set up to be as least bias as possible. You don't trust politicians, you just trust the science. Science is the best way to determine truth, it is in itself perfect. The failings of science are the failings of humans making mistakes. But that's why there is a huge scientific community keeping checks on everyone.

In the end it's not about making the correct decision all the time, it's about making the best possible decision given the information at a time. If that turns out later to be less optimal then it's gonna be that way, it's still better than indecision or being contrarian and doubting everything. Since it is impossible to have perfect information it is natural and prudent to just choose whatever seems the most solid answer at that time. And when it comes to science majority consensus is ALWAYS the correct way to go, even in the rare cases where it turns out false in the end.

"Choice. The 'problem', is choice."

Where I come from choice is a good thing. It's one of humanity's great treasures. And there is no better time than to choose than in the age of information, where there is no excuse to make an uninformed decision.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

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vivster on 09 August 2020

Here is an article about excess deaths in the US so that I don't have to repeat it ad nauseam.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

JRPGfan on 09 August 2020
vivster said:
Here is an article about excess deaths in the US so that I don't have to repeat it ad nauseam.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

You coulda done the TL:DR version (I read through it).

From mid march to July 25th, 200,700 excessive deaths have taken place in the USA (cdc estimate).
Which is more than 54,000+ higher than estimated covid19 related deaths.

You can see from charts, that New York had alot of excess deaths early on in the pandemic.
Now its riseing in drastically in Texas, california, Florida, Arizona,.... which should surprise no one.

CDC numbers are estimates, and likely to be "under-estimates" (because they use old ways of what typical trends, when now in a pandemic, things arnt normal).

If they applied the current ~37% higher excess deaths than corona virus reported ones, the actual number should be close to 216,000.
(this would put excess deaths at over 70,000 in the US)




Conina on 09 August 2020

I was curious about the excess deaths in Germany and looked into the raw data of the official statistic:

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Cross-Section/Corona/Society/population_death.html

https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Bevoelkerung/Sterbefaelle-Lebenserwartung/Tabellen/sonderauswertung-sterbefaelle.html?nn=396932

Until the end of June we had ~9000 covid-19-related deaths but only ~5000 excess deaths... so ~4000 people less died of other illnesses:

Especially surprising is the age group of 75 - 80... in spite of covid-19, ~4500 less of them died in the first half year compared to the year before.

Are families and nursing homes giving extra care to that age group due to the pandemic? Are they more cautious themselves? Or was last year a bad flu year for that age group?

Also less people in all age groups below 55 died less than last year... which could indicate a good health system. Most excess deaths were in the age group above 80 years, as expected.

That said, I'm worried about the next months. People are getting careless. I wanted to go swimming this week, but when I arrived at the public swimming pool there was a huge queue of ~150 people outside waiting to get entry.

Inside the public swimming pool they have strict rules to keep distance and most people stick to that. But outside in the line they waited 2 - 3 feet apart and NO ONE was wearing a mask. Probably some returners of other EU countries were among them. Then I decided to not risk it and drove home.

Last edited by Conina - on 09 August 2020

JRPGfan on 09 August 2020

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-kids-school-children-coronavirus-in-person-instruction/

"Nearly 100,000 children tested positive for the coronavirus in the last two weeks of July, a new report from the American Academy of Pediatrics finds. Just over 97,000 children tested positive for the coronavirus from July 16 to July 30, according to the association."

Whats gonna happen is kids will go to school, spread it to others, who then go home, infect their parents, who then go to work, and infect their work place. Its bound to happend.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 09 August 2020

SvennoJ on 09 August 2020

Crap, 2 staff members tested positive in our local hospital. I wonder where they got it from. Strangely the counter only went up by one...
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/covid-19-outbreak-brantford-general-hospital-1.5680032

Days since last case back to zero, call center still experiencing high volumes and long wait times, website still unresponsive and sometimes down. Meanwhile our 8 year old today said he's not used to other people anymore after he went all shy, hiding at the park when other kids were there :( Get this shit under control, effing half measures letting it flare up again over and over, sick of it.