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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

SpokenTruth said:
drkohler said:
China has just revised the numbers for the Wuhan region. Those leaked pictures of the Wuhan crematory working day and night could probably no longer have been suppressed within China...

What leaked pictures of crematories working day and night?

newwil7l said:

No one is acting like Trump doesn't carry blame. He does in fact have a lot of blood on his hands, but please stop acting like China doesn't carry a huge amount of blame for this either. They have a lot to answer for.

Can you find a post from me that says China doesn't have any blame?  For the most part, it's irrelevant anyway.  The actions in my own country are the matter at hand for me.

Imagine a fire at a the apartment building next door.  You can see there is a fire, reports confer a fire, etc...but the building owner doesn't tell you it's a fire immediately.  Now for your own apartment building, you know it's possible his fire could spread to yours.  But instead of listening to the advice of the fire chief, taking active measures such as wetting your roof/sides/fencing, clipping overhanging branches and shrubbery, trenching the grass, etc....the building owner downplays the severity of the fire, tells everyone it will be out soon, that it will go away once it rains, congratulating the neighboring apartment owner for doing a great job and being transparent about his fire, and then starts blaming everyone else when his building catches fire.  Blaming the neighboring apartment owner, blaming the fire chief, blaming the previous apartment building owner, blaming the media covering the fire.

If you lived in that second building, who should would you be most immediately angry at?  Your neighboring apartment building owner or your own?

You certainly have rights to be mad at the neighboring apartment building owner BUT to what end?  Especially when your own apartment building owner failed even worse.  So you can't do much about the neighboring apartment building owner's negligence but your own apartment building owner, who is most immediately responsible for your safety, can and should be held accountable.

China didn't fuck up over here.  Trump did.  Xi Jinping is not my President.  He is not responsible for the actions or inaction of my government.  Trump is my President and he is responsible for the actions or inaction of my government.

It doesn't help other nations response time when the nation where the virus originated spent a significant amount of time suppressing the existence of the virus, and then spent additional time denying human to human transmission of the virus when it has been proven they knew otherwise.  So yeah, "China fucked up everywhere".



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Mandalore76 said:

It doesn't help other nations response time when the nation where the virus originated spent a significant amount of time suppressing the existence of the virus, and then spent additional time denying human to human transmission of the virus when it has been proven they knew otherwise.  So yeah, "China fucked up everywhere".

yet with decisive action, like South Korea or Taiwan or Vietnam or Singapore showed, the effects of the outbreak in other countries could've been radically reduced anyway

China deserves blame, so do many others



Lafiel said:
Mandalore76 said:

It doesn't help other nations response time when the nation where the virus originated spent a significant amount of time suppressing the existence of the virus, and then spent additional time denying human to human transmission of the virus when it has been proven they knew otherwise.  So yeah, "China fucked up everywhere".

yet with decisive action, like South Korea or Taiwan or Vietnam or Singapore showed, the effects of the outbreak in other countries could've been radically reduced anyway

China deserves blame, so do many others

No dispute there.  But the irony in the case of Taiwan, is that they were in a unique position allowing them to distrust the early information coming from both China and the World Health Organization.

"According to the country’s officials, on December 31—the same day that Wuhan health officials announced the discovery of a viral pneumonia with “no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission”—Taiwan wrote to the WHO to request more information about the disease’s potential to pass between humans. They say that the WHO acknowledged receipt of the letter, but did not otherwise respond or share it with WHO member states.
Taiwan took action anyway. Before nightfall on December 31, the country decided to begin health inspections for all passengers arriving on flights from Wuhan. Two weeks later—amid continued reassurances from Chinese and WHO officials that there was no need for alarm—Taiwan dispatched two of its health experts to the city in Hubei province, where they found significant likelihood that the coronavirus was capable of human-to-human transmission. This virus, they reported on January 16, could be far more dangerous than initially assumed, noting that Wuhan’s local doctors were taking the disease very seriously as well.
It would be four more days before the Chinese government officially acknowledged that the virus could be transmitted between humans, on January 20. In the meantime, Wuhan had hosted a 40,000-household dinner to celebrate Lunar New Year and millions of people had left the city for the holiday, dispersing across the country at the worst possible time.

By the time Taiwan confirmed its first case of Covid-19, on January 21, the country was arguably more prepared than any other place in the world. It mobilized its Central Epidemic Command Center—a rapid-response agency formed in the wake of the 2003 SARS outbreak—to implement quarantines and conduct drills at hospitals. Citizens were asked to stay calm and assured that they would all be able to buy surgical masks, as production of the masks was ramped up into millions per day. Soon after, Taiwanese masks were temporarily banned from export.

By contrast, Hubei did not begin its own emergency measures until the day after, when the Chinese health authority was already reporting 440 cases and nine deaths across mainland China.
In spite of its decisive response, Taiwan was shut out of the WHO’s emergency meeting on January 22, where representatives from 16 countries—including the PRC, Japan, South Korea, and the United States—opted to delay declaring the coronavirus a global health emergency.
When the Taiwanese CDC deputy director general, Chuang Jen-hsiang, gave his own press conference in Taipei, a local reporter asked him whether Taiwan was coordinating with the WHO. “We’re not like other countries,” replied Chuang with a pained smile. “We weren’t invited to the meeting. There’s no way for us to get firsthand information.”

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/taiwan-who-coronavirus-china/



John2290 said:
Okay, India is doing way better than it should be by now, way way better. Either the testing isn't there or the heat will save us from this thing. California and Australia numbers add to this notion and the nothern hemisphere might buy enough time during the summer and have successful reopenings before autumn. It's the only hope I have left. It think it sun is having more of an effect than simply Vitimin D cause Idians are deficient all year around.

Labs are saying that its hard to kill with heat.
Normally 60 degree's celcius for 1hour, is enough for a Sterilization of most things.
With this virus they need to go above 100 degree's (over boiling point) to get rid of it.

Its a "lie" or "fakenews" rumor, that the heat will save us from this thing.

Much more likely that india just doesnt test that much, so they have no idea of infection rates or spread.
They have supposedly done like 300k tests, for a country of over ~1,4 billion people.
(less than 0,02% of the population are tested) (they need to test x50 times more, to reach even 1% of population)

They just dont have accurate information, to any degree.


Not just India have issues with vitamin D.
In the USA over 42% of the population suffer from Vitamin D deficiency.
The darker your skin tone, and the less time you spend out in the sun.... the higher the rates and degree.

This could also be partly why Afro-americans seem to make up a disproportional, amount of infected and dieing from this virus.

I think everyone in the world, should be takeing vitamin pills or Vitamin D suppliments.
Theres studies that suggest it helps vs coronavirus. Atleast I saw a video about it, by a Dr Campell
(who himself now takes vitamin D suppliments and recammends others to do this now too).

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 17 April 2020

Lafiel said:
Mandalore76 said:

It doesn't help other nations response time when the nation where the virus originated spent a significant amount of time suppressing the existence of the virus, and then spent additional time denying human to human transmission of the virus when it has been proven they knew otherwise.  So yeah, "China fucked up everywhere".

yet with decisive action, like South Korea or Taiwan or Vietnam or Singapore showed, the effects of the outbreak in other countries could've been radically reduced anyway

China deserves blame, so do many others

Those countries did the smart thing and didn't trust a thing WHO or China was putting out there.

SpokenTruth said:
drkohler said:
China has just revised the numbers for the Wuhan region. Those leaked pictures of the Wuhan crematory working day and night could probably no longer have been suppressed within China...

What leaked pictures of crematories working day and night?

You should check out twitter, there's speculation that the death rate from China is much higher:

And this is just from Wuhan

Edit: My twitter links don't show it, but all the twitter links are from big american news sites.



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John2290 said:
JRPGfan said:

I don't get it so, you can write Australia and California off as immune systems are high from the Aussie summer and the ever sunny Californian weahter but how do you account for India? They should be seeing thousands of deaths by now with the numbers they had at the start of their lockdown? Are they dead in their homes or what? And south Africa, the place should be like Italy at peak by now... what is the factor here that is keeping, thankfully, the tide at bay?

Look at europe:

France had 1000 confirmed infected back in 6th of march.
India had 1000 confirmed infected back in ~30th of march.

Theres a ~24 day differnce in when infections "really" hit both of them, and started growing.
So again give it time, its early for the outbreak in india.

That said,.... this virus mainly hits the old & weak that already have preconditions.
Avg age in india is much lower than in say most parts of europe, and most of them are thin and in decent health.
(smokeing, overweight, diabetes isnt a huge issue in india, compaired to rest of world)


I think alot more in time (say 24days from now) in india will have gotten infected than in most places in europe.
However I think they will on avg have less deaths pr infection than most other places.

Simply because large amounts of their population are young and relatively healthy.


"And south Africa, the place should be like Italy at peak by now"

Look at when they had 1000 infected = march 27th.
Again the "spread" only just started there, compaired to europe, they are still very early in their outbreaks.


Also the benefit of spread hitting you late, and knowing in advance is you can put in place things (social distanceing) before the spread is too much of a issue. Europe didnt have that benefit, we got screwed over, much more so than america, by china lieing about this virus.

So again stuff like that effects how the spread goes in countries.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 17 April 2020

John2290 said:

I don't get it so, you can write Australia and California off as immune systems are high from the Aussie summer and the ever sunny Californian weahter but how do you account for India? They should be seeing thousands of deaths by now with the numbers they had at the start of their lockdown? Are they dead in their homes or what? And south Africa, the place should be like Italy at peak by now... what is the factor here that is keeping, thankfully, the tide at bay?

There is a lot more movement between countries in Europe than in India I'm guessing. India is also at least 20 days behind Italy, perhaps 30. It's hard to tell with the crappy early testing in both. Exponential growth also goes slow at the start and deaths lag another 20 days behind. It might mostly be lack of testing, both the living and the dead. We would need some data about normal and current death rates to figure out if it's really going slower through India.

Besides that, India's average age is 26.8 vs 49.1 in Italy. Many more cases will only have mild symptoms, there aren't that many older people in India. I don't know what the culture is in India for the elderly, no clue if they are more or less protected than in Italy.



SvennoJ said:


Besides that, India's average age is 26.8 vs 49.1 in Italy. Many more cases will only have mild symptoms, there aren't that many older people in India.

Well, there are a lot, and really a lot, of Indiands around. So there are also a lot of older people around. Over 45k die every day as a rough average. A 5% deviation will not be noticed at all. Even 10% more deaths will not be noticed, people simply die in the villages and no official ever gets to make a stroke in some list.

Also spreading the virus has only started recently. When the Indian government ordered a shutdown/stay home order, hundreds of thousands of workers lost their jobs and are now wandering home (train trafic is also mostly stopped, and they woudn't have the money anyways for a ticket) into their villages



drkohler said:
SvennoJ said:


Besides that, India's average age is 26.8 vs 49.1 in Italy. Many more cases will only have mild symptoms, there aren't that many older people in India.

Well, there are a lot, and really a lot, of Indiands around. So there are also a lot of older people around. Over 45k die every day as a rough average. A 5% deviation will not be noticed at all. Even 10% more deaths will not be noticed, people simply die in the villages and no official ever gets to make a stroke in some list.

Also spreading the virus has only started recently. When the Indian government ordered a shutdown/stay home order, hundreds of thousands of workers lost their jobs and are now wandering home (train trafic is also mostly stopped, and they woudn't have the money anyways for a ticket) into their villages

I calculated the Imperial college estimates through before based on the demographics in the US and India.

In the US the death toll could be 2.2 million if left unchecked out of 328 million population.
In India the death toll could be 2.0 million if left unchecked out of 1.35 billion population.

Actually less people would die in India than the US due to the huge difference in age demographics.

And true, if nobody is around to test and count the dead, we won't know.

(Those are lower estimates btw if 'only' 40% of the population gets infected and no extra deaths due to hospital shortage)



CaptainExplosion said:

Dr. Phil downplays coronavirus and thinks economy should reopen. I can't believe Dr. Phil has proven to be such an imbecile. Dr. Oz being a fucking quack makes sense, but I used to respect Dr. Phil.

This kind of idiocy is going to result in more COVID-19 deaths. -_-

And you think continuing these lockdowns for months won't result in more deaths and lives destroyed? 

I am concerned the damage will be for greater everywhere if economy isn't slowly reopened. It's something worth discussing instead of calling it idiocy.