| John2290 said: I don't get it so, you can write Australia and California off as immune systems are high from the Aussie summer and the ever sunny Californian weahter but how do you account for India? They should be seeing thousands of deaths by now with the numbers they had at the start of their lockdown? Are they dead in their homes or what? And south Africa, the place should be like Italy at peak by now... what is the factor here that is keeping, thankfully, the tide at bay? |
There is a lot more movement between countries in Europe than in India I'm guessing. India is also at least 20 days behind Italy, perhaps 30. It's hard to tell with the crappy early testing in both. Exponential growth also goes slow at the start and deaths lag another 20 days behind. It might mostly be lack of testing, both the living and the dead. We would need some data about normal and current death rates to figure out if it's really going slower through India.
Besides that, India's average age is 26.8 vs 49.1 in Italy. Many more cases will only have mild symptoms, there aren't that many older people in India. I don't know what the culture is in India for the elderly, no clue if they are more or less protected than in Italy.
Essay Pro