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SvennoJ on 17 April 2020
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drkohler said:
SvennoJ said:


Besides that, India's average age is 26.8 vs 49.1 in Italy. Many more cases will only have mild symptoms, there aren't that many older people in India.

Well, there are a lot, and really a lot, of Indiands around. So there are also a lot of older people around. Over 45k die every day as a rough average. A 5% deviation will not be noticed at all. Even 10% more deaths will not be noticed, people simply die in the villages and no official ever gets to make a stroke in some list.

Also spreading the virus has only started recently. When the Indian government ordered a shutdown/stay home order, hundreds of thousands of workers lost their jobs and are now wandering home (train trafic is also mostly stopped, and they woudn't have the money anyways for a ticket) into their villages

I calculated the Imperial college estimates through before based on the demographics in the US and India.

In the US the death toll could be 2.2 million if left unchecked out of 328 million population.
In India the death toll could be 2.0 million if left unchecked out of 1.35 billion population.

Actually less people would die in India than the US due to the huge difference in age demographics.

And true, if nobody is around to test and count the dead, we won't know.

(Those are lower estimates btw if 'only' 40% of the population gets infected and no extra deaths due to hospital shortage)