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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

The average growth measured over 5 days for March 28th shows a decline compared to a week earlier (Saturday compared to Saturday)
The USA was high due to getting testing up to speed, thus shows the biggest decline

The average growth for the world went down from 1.029x on March 21st to 0.959x 2 days ago
The average growth for the USA went down from 1.297x on March 21st to 1.023x 2 days ago
The average growth for Europe went down from 0.957x on March 21th to 0.933x 2 days ago

The USA did catch up to Europe a bit again and is now 8.39 days behind Europe in total case count.

To illustrate the weekend effect, 5 day growth average comparison from Wednesday to Wednesday looks like:

The average growth for the world went down from 1.254x on March 18th to 1.141x on March 25th
The average growth for the USA went down from 1.619x on March 18th to 1.195x 2 on March 25th
The average growth for Europe went down from 1.279x on March 18th to 1.151x 2 on March 25th

For Europe and the world on average the March 25th numbers (Wednesday) were higher than the March 21st numbers (Saturday) yet week to week shows a continuing decline. The real number is somewhere in between. The USA mostly shows the effect of getting into testing cases.

It's hard to give exact trends with so much statistical noise in the data, criteria for who gets tested and availability of tests changing all the time. But we're on the right path.



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vivster said:

(..)

I'm well aware of the ramifications of this virus and I wouldn't recommend to any young person leave their house for any non essential reason. I just don't like the increased dramatization of "OH LOOK, THERE IS A SICK YOUNG PERSON! THAT MEANS THE VIRUS WILL KILL EVERYONE!" when that's incredibly far from the truth.

I'm with you on that part.

That's actually quite annoying and is unnecessary fear-mongering. Here in the Netherlands there was this one guy, 39 or something, who was all over the news because he was on a ventilator while "he had always been so healthy". Meanwhile those 99.99% of the other people of his age that get off with just a mild cough are nowhere to be seen. The point is there's always outliers, the guy just had bad luck (or has an health issue he doesn't know about).



vivster said:

I assume those numbers are based on confirmed cases. If we consider that especially among younger people there are way more unreported cases those numbers really are laughable for anyone under 40. Also not included in those stats are additional health issues like smoking, obesity asthma etc. Which brings down the hospitalization rate for young and healthy people down even further and the fatality rate close to zero. So pretty much what is expected.

I'm well aware of the ramifications of this virus and I wouldn't recommend to any young person leave their house for any non essential reason. I just don't like the increased dramatization of "OH LOOK, THERE IS A SICK YOUNG PERSON! THAT MEANS THE VIRUS WILL KILL EVERYONE!" when that's incredibly far from the truth.

Those numbers were already corrected for all that

Analyses of data from China as well as data from those returning on repatriation flights suggest that 40-50% of infections were not identified as cases. This may include asymptomatic infections, mild disease and a level of under-ascertainment. We therefore assume that two-thirds of cases are sufficiently symptomatic to self-isolate (if required by policy) within 1 day of symptom onset, and a mean delay from onset of symptoms to hospitalisation of 5 days. The age-stratified proportion of infections that require hospitalisation and the infection fatality ratio (IFR) were obtained from an analysis of a subset of cases from China. These estimates were corrected for non-uniform attack rates by age and when applied to the GB population result in an IFR of 0.9% with 4.4% of infections hospitalised (Table 1). We assume that 30% of those that are hospitalised will require critical care (invasive mechanical ventilation or ECMO) based on early reports from COVID-19 cases in the UK, China and Italy (Professor Nicholas Hart, personal communication). Based on expert clinical opinion, we assume that 50% of those in critical care will die and an age-dependent proportion of those that do not require critical care die (calculated to match the overall IFR). We calculate bed demand numbers assuming a total duration of stay in hospital of 8 days if critical care is not required and 16 days (with 10 days in ICU) if critical care is required. With 30% of hospitalised cases requiring critical care, we obtain an overall mean duration of hospitalisation of 10.4 days, slightly shorter than the duration from hospital admission to discharge observed for COVID-19 cases internationally (who will have remained in hospital longer to ensure negative tests at discharge) but inline with estimates for general pneumonia admissions.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf



UK is seeing a drastic growth in deaths now.
Last few days its been 180-200 ish, and today its already over 380.



JRPGfan said:
UK is seeing a drastic growth in deaths now.
Last few days its been 180-200 ish, and today its already over 380.

It looks more like a correction for under reporting of the last couple of days.

It went from
115
181
260
209
180
381

The average of the last 3 days is still lower than the 260 on the 28th. An actual significant decline in deaths isn't expected until between April 13th to April 24th in the UK. It shouldn't grow as fast as today suggests though. Statistical anomaly or rather correction for the past few days.






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SpokenTruth said:

This is the positive cases in my county by age group.  That whole notion that "it only affects old" is BS.

good thing that notion never existed in the first place. I have yet to hear anyone says that.



LurkerJ said:
SpokenTruth said:

This is the positive cases in my county by age group.  That whole notion that "it only affects old" is BS.

good thing that notion never existed in the first place. I have yet to hear anyone says that.

For real? That's what everyone around here keeps chanting. Most of Scandinavia seems to think this, it's the biggest reason why so many are disrespecting the curfew and general guidelines to avoid contaminating others. It doesn't help that the recommendations from various groups collide with one another either. For instance, here in Sweden the government is saying "stay at home", while the city is admonishing people to go out to eat and drink (they even allowed restaurants and bars to open their outdoors service earlier to attract more customers) in order to save jobs, while economists are saying "save your money, you'll need them soon".



"Important numbers are how many of the infected have only mild or moderate symptoms and don't need to be hospitalized. If people got told every day that more than 90% of the infected are getting away easily, then more people would keep a cool head. But I guess it's easier to make people stay inside when you warp reality and instill a little fear."

The thing is.... ~20% are hospitalised because you cannot be sure, they wont require a ventilor.
Do that many actually need one? no.
You could tell everyone to just stay home, chances are good you wont even need it.

In denmark we currently have 529 patience at the hospital for Covid-19.
145 of which, require a ICU bed and a ventilor.

The "youngest" person in denmark to die to this thing was 50 years old (so far).
However there are people in their 30's that do get so sick form this, they require a ventilor.

Acting like "if your young, your in no danger at all" is wrong.
People in there 30's could potentially start dieing to it as well, if there wasnt ventilators (even if it would be rare).

Being young, and getting this, just means even if you are put on a ventilator (which very few would require),
you get better quick, and more often than older people.

^ which is also why you see some places (spain, italy) they choose to let old people die (give them pain meds)
and give the ventilator spots to younger people.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 31 March 2020

vivster said:
Disregarding all of China's manufacturing because you bought some broken shit on alibaba is like disregarding all of the US because your craigslist hookup tried to rape you.

I am not upset about the masks? The west has ignored China's monstrosity for far too long, and it's not changing soon. Placing one million Uighur Muslims in its “reeducation” camps should've been enough reason to stop all deals with that country, but nope, gotta maximize profits. 



LurkerJ said:
SpokenTruth said:

This is the positive cases in my county by age group.  That whole notion that "it only affects old" is BS.

good thing that notion never existed in the first place. I have yet to hear anyone says that.

Florida's beaches full of college students a couple weeks ago disagrees