| vivster said: I assume those numbers are based on confirmed cases. If we consider that especially among younger people there are way more unreported cases those numbers really are laughable for anyone under 40. Also not included in those stats are additional health issues like smoking, obesity asthma etc. Which brings down the hospitalization rate for young and healthy people down even further and the fatality rate close to zero. So pretty much what is expected. I'm well aware of the ramifications of this virus and I wouldn't recommend to any young person leave their house for any non essential reason. I just don't like the increased dramatization of "OH LOOK, THERE IS A SICK YOUNG PERSON! THAT MEANS THE VIRUS WILL KILL EVERYONE!" when that's incredibly far from the truth. |
Those numbers were already corrected for all that
Analyses of data from China as well as data from those returning on repatriation flights suggest that 40-50% of infections were not identified as cases. This may include asymptomatic infections, mild disease and a level of under-ascertainment. We therefore assume that two-thirds of cases are sufficiently symptomatic to self-isolate (if required by policy) within 1 day of symptom onset, and a mean delay from onset of symptoms to hospitalisation of 5 days. The age-stratified proportion of infections that require hospitalisation and the infection fatality ratio (IFR) were obtained from an analysis of a subset of cases from China. These estimates were corrected for non-uniform attack rates by age and when applied to the GB population result in an IFR of 0.9% with 4.4% of infections hospitalised (Table 1). We assume that 30% of those that are hospitalised will require critical care (invasive mechanical ventilation or ECMO) based on early reports from COVID-19 cases in the UK, China and Italy (Professor Nicholas Hart, personal communication). Based on expert clinical opinion, we assume that 50% of those in critical care will die and an age-dependent proportion of those that do not require critical care die (calculated to match the overall IFR). We calculate bed demand numbers assuming a total duration of stay in hospital of 8 days if critical care is not required and 16 days (with 10 days in ICU) if critical care is required. With 30% of hospitalised cases requiring critical care, we obtain an overall mean duration of hospitalisation of 10.4 days, slightly shorter than the duration from hospital admission to discharge observed for COVID-19 cases internationally (who will have remained in hospital longer to ensure negative tests at discharge) but inline with estimates for general pneumonia admissions.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
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