Italy and spain are like a week or two further along than the US outbreak.
This virus doesnt kill you instantly. You die a slow drawn out battle to it, laying first in the hosptital with aided air, and lateron on a ventilator.

A week or two from now, you ll see simular rates in the US where the outbreak is now bad (new york state).
(the seriously / critical ill, numbers will keep riseing there too)

Also you can "guess" how many are out there, but no nation counts their guesses.
Unoffically not first across 100k? that stuff doesnt matter, neither does breaking into 100k first.

I think your right, beds in hospitals matter more.
It shows when things will start to go bad.

My entire point (which probably flew over your head) was that 4-5 days ago (from this thread), people were thinking "italy wont happend here in the US". Now it seems its playing out like that in New York state.  This virus shouldnt be underestimated, and you shouldn't think that cant happend to our area/state, it can, and be just as bad as italy.

I find it strange to look back on all of this, to try to understand the situation with a bit of perspective. So far as I know, this whole situation is down to one person a few months ago in China, doing what? Eating bat soup or something equally trivial? And the end result will be thousands upon thousands dead, economies crushed (with all of the job loss, foreclosure, depression, etc., that entails), political futures made and destroyed, a new disease perhaps permanently with us bringing permanent changes to our respective cultures.

It's hard to know what to take seriously in a world that is so fragile, with lives that teeter on the very edge, not through any choices we personally make, but on the basis of incidental choices made by others we'll never meet, worlds away. I'm not religious, myself, but I understand the appeal: there ought to be some meaning to this madness.

Jebus... on Neogaf theres now people shareing their experiances with CoVid-19.


Filth :
"So i had a bad headache for 2-3 days followed by very very bad muscle pains. I started feeling fatigue and once i lost sense of smell and taste i knew that was another new symptom and I said ok i have to get tested.

I am a first responder and still had to go to work even though the state is on lockdown. I attempted to get tested 3 times and was refused. I finally was able to get tested and it came back positive. Im feeling ok. Im in my mid 30’s and have no health problems. My chest feels heavy and i am getting tired much quicker. I now have to stay Home until further notice. Besides that everything is ok."


Mason:
"I caught the virus in Singapore, back in the first week of February. I’m in good health, exercise regularly, with a strong immune system, and rarely get sick. This is what I experienced, in order:

Severe upset stomach and diarrhea. Sudden, painful, and frequent.
Complete exhaustion. Barely able to get out of bed or even move, no appetite, mostly slept.
Scratchy throat and constant cough. No matter how much I hydrated, my throat always felt dry and the coughing was relentless.
Mild/moderate trouble breathing. My breathing was shallow and my lungs felt tight. At times it felt like breathing took real effort.

At the time, there was less known about the symptoms so it wasn’t at all clear— until after the fact, really— that I’d caught the Cornonavirus. I thought I had a severe flu until the respiratory symptoms started. I’m grateful I was able to stay isolated and get through it myself. But knowing what we know now about the potential severity, I’m lucky it wasn’t worse."


So it sounds like has Mason fully recovered, and Filth is in the early phases of it.

That doesn't work so well either, some places don't report serious/critical cases or only sporadically and some classify critical cases differently. Death is the only constant but that's heavily dependent on what the age distribution is of those that are hit, which also affects critical cases. In Germany it's circulating mostly among the young while in Italy it's striking evenly. In the US it will be more among the younger population as well for now with spring break being a big driving factor.

It's more reliable to look at growth trends as long as the country keeps the classifications and test criteria the same over time. However that is also dependent on who gets tested and how many. Some countries stopped testing those that went into quarantine anyway (family members in the Netherlands) while others suddenly ramped up testing showing huge growth spikes. In the end that will even itself out again.

The USA is already nr. one for most active cases and is catching up to Europe combined.

Currently USA is exceeding the daily increase of cases where Europe was at 7 days a go.
For total cases USA is now 9 days behind and was 12 days behind when crossing the 1,000 cases total.
(The lower line is avg deaths per day)


Stay at home advisories are having their impact on ISPs here as well, this is mine

My area still has good internet for now.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/26/national/science-health/tokyo-inches-toward-lockdown-coronavirus/
Sounds like Tokyo is headed towards a lockdown.

It's not from eating bat soup, and where it actually started is still unknown. Bets are on Wuhan so far
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-patients-zero-contracted-case-november-2020-3

The first case of the novel coronavirus emerged on November 17, according to Chinese government data reviewed by the South China Morning Post.

It wasn't until late December that Chinese officials realized they had a new virus on their hands. But even then, China's government clamped down on sharing information about it with the public, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The Post said the data it reviewed, which has not been made public, suggested that the virus was first contracted by a 55-year-old man from China's Hubei province.

But as the newspaper noted, the evidence is not conclusive. The identity of "patient zero" — the first human case of the virus — has still not been confirmed, and it's possible that the data set isn't complete.

However a strange severe pneumonia was already circulating in Northern Italy at the end of November.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3076334/coronavirus-strange-pneumonia-seen-lombardy-november-leading

Nothern Italy has one of the largest, if not the largest, Chinatowns in the world (poulation size basically unknown due to many illegals). This is due to the fact that the italian fashion industry has been taken over by Chinese companies beginning in the mid-eighties. Nowadays, practically the whole manufacturing of "Italian fashion" is done by Chinese in Chinese factories.

Chinese people traveling from/to China to/from Italy happened all the time, so there is no surprise if that included people from the Wuhan region.

Wow..... Germany says part of the reason, their % are so low is beacuse in the last week alone, they have tested 300-500k people.

"That allows us to prepare earlier than has perhaps been possible in other countries,” - Lothar Wieler (Robert Koch Institute)

“We want to use this time,” (to double or tripple, intensive care capacity)

“This is still the calm before the storm. No one can say exactly what’s coming in the next few weeks.”

“We are just starting out to fight the corona(virus) epidemic. The numbers will rise further,”


source : https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany/germany-still-in-calm-before-coronavirus-storm-health-minister-idUSKBN21D23A



I wish our goverment here in denmark was doing the same.
(but I know they arnt, they probably thought it unnessary to spend that much on testing)


*edit:
Apparently testing it getting better in denmark too, currently they are able to do more than 2,500 tests pr day ( over 17,500 pr week).
They expect to soon be able to double that.  We re a small country so its not as horrible as I assumed, though not quite germany levels (pr population).

Ah I did not know that, that makes a lot of sense.

Further indications that it's our whole society that is to blame for pandemics being so easily possible nowadays. You don't blame the first person that crashes a car, due to an underlying defect, for bad driving. You recall all the cars and fix the underlying defect. And that's a simple static chance, effecting at most a couple people. The start of a new virus has a very low static chance as well and will keep occurring. It's the way we live that turns it into a pandemic.

Hopefully more awareness to stay home when sick, cover your coughs etc and frequently wash your hands for at least 20 seconds with soap will also have a positive effect on the next flu season. And hopefully the current rise in video conferencing and working from home will reduce future traffic as well. And better regulations how to handle livestock will help as well.

NEW YORK UPDATE:
-37,258 confirmed cases (+6,448)
-385 deaths
-21,393 cases in NYC

-122,104 tested
-5,327 hospitalized (1,390 in ICU)
-Number of new cases accelerated from yesterday.#CoronavirusNewYork#Coronavirusupdate pic.twitter.com/21WKNFEAoX

— Hold Him Accountable (@the_trump_virus) March 26, 2020