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JRPGfan on 26 March 2020
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supermattia10 said:
JRPGfan said:

4-5 days ago when the USA was at ~24,000 cases, and everyone was like "Yay! we hit 300,000 world wide!", "500k next week?"
"things sure look bad in italy"

Back then I was already convinced the US would be the first to hit 100k.
Even if Italy numbers, were high and still riseing quickly then.

If the US has another ~14,000 cases today, it ll likely be the country with most total infections of this virus by tomorrow.

Unofficially there are arleady some nations that have been more than 100K cases, if not I wouldn't find a real reason for a so high mortality rate in some areas of the world... yes, maybe they have an older populations, but this reason is not able to cover the entire gap...

Furthermore. in order to find the trend of temporary cases, is way better to see the number of critical cases. Now in the US there are 1455 of them, in Spain for example there are 3400...

So, beyond the number of positive cases tested, in places like Italy or Spain there have been already more than 100K cases, or 200K maybe, if the number of deaths will continue to grow so fast.

Italy and spain are like a week or two further along than the US outbreak.
This virus doesnt kill you instantly. You die a slow drawn out battle to it, laying first in the hosptital with aided air, and lateron on a ventilator.

A week or two from now, you ll see simular rates in the US where the outbreak is now bad (new york state).
(the seriously / critical ill, numbers will keep riseing there too)

Also you can "guess" how many are out there, but no nation counts their guesses.
Unoffically not first across 100k? that stuff doesnt matter, neither does breaking into 100k first.

I think your right, beds in hospitals matter more.
It shows when things will start to go bad.

My entire point (which probably flew over your head) was that 4-5 days ago (from this thread), people were thinking "italy wont happend here in the US". Now it seems its playing out like that in New York state.  This virus shouldnt be underestimated, and you shouldn't think that cant happend to our area/state, it can, and be just as bad as italy.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 26 March 2020