By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
SvennoJ on 26 March 2020
Edit Thread
supermattia10 said:
JRPGfan said:

4-5 days ago when the USA was at ~24,000 cases, and everyone was like "Yay! we hit 300,000 world wide!", "500k next week?"
"things sure look bad in italy"

Back then I was already convinced the US would be the first to hit 100k.
Even if Italy numbers, were high and still riseing quickly then.

If the US has another ~14,000 cases today, it ll likely be the country with most total infections of this virus by tomorrow.

Unofficially there are arleady some nations that have been more than 100K cases, if not I wouldn't find a real reason for a so high mortality rate in some areas of the world... yes, maybe they have an older populations, but this reason is not able to cover the entire gap...

Furthermore. in order to find the trend of temporary cases, is way better to see the number of critical cases. Now in the US there are 1455 of them, in Spain for example there are 3400.

So, beyond the number of positive cases tested, in places like Italy or Spain there have been already more than 100K cases, or 200K maybe, if the number of deaths will continue to grow so fast.

That doesn't work so well either, some places don't report serious/critical cases or only sporadically and some classify critical cases differently. Death is the only constant but that's heavily dependent on what the age distribution is of those that are hit, which also affects critical cases. In Germany it's circulating mostly among the young while in Italy it's striking evenly. In the US it will be more among the younger population as well for now with spring break being a big driving factor.

It's more reliable to look at growth trends as long as the country keeps the classifications and test criteria the same over time. However that is also dependent on who gets tested and how many. Some countries stopped testing those that went into quarantine anyway (family members in the Netherlands) while others suddenly ramped up testing showing huge growth spikes. In the end that will even itself out again.

The USA is already nr. one for most active cases and is catching up to Europe combined.

Currently USA is exceeding the daily increase of cases where Europe was at 7 days a go.
For total cases USA is now 9 days behind and was 12 days behind when crossing the 1,000 cases total.
(The lower line is avg deaths per day)


Stay at home advisories are having their impact on ISPs here as well, this is mine

My area still has good internet for now.