This shite is killing the restaurant industry in my city, and there are only 8 cases so far. My mother's cafeteria is getting deserted, though there's been a substantial increase in UberEats and to go orders. I never imagined the virus would've such an impact this early into the pandemic.

I'm also growing anxious because my mother has rheumatoid arthritis and a very poor immune system, if she caught the thing, complications would surely arise, I think.

It's getting crazy in my neighborhood. A third neighbor tested positive and my local wallgreens is closed because some employees have it.

That's a massive overgeneralization of how Muslim countries work and a huge misunderstanding of how Islam works. Forensic science exists in Muslim countries, just like any other country. And Islam doesn't get in it's way. Just how good air bad they are and how ignorant some Muslims are regarding that is another matter. 

People usually die after a week or two on ventilators.
So these 222 deaths, are from when america had the "confirmed cases" of 1-2 weeks ago.

So go back in time, look at how many infected there where back then vs the dead today.
Now look at confirmed cases of infected today, and multiply that by the rate you you just worked out, and you ll know how many dead could be showing up in the charts a week from now.

This is only the bare beginning.
Numbers are gonna raise and fast too.

New York state only recently went into a full lockdown.
Lockdown doesnt stop those already infected, in their incubation periode, from getting sick (or infecting family members).
(its gonna be a while, before spread rate even drops abit from it)

Basically the ~11,000 new cases of confirmed infected in the US yesterday, is not anywhere close to the peak.
Maybe within a week from now that number is ~20,000 new confirmed cases each day.

That is not a worst case.

Worse case (70% infection rate) the health care system collapses.
By then its not 2,5% mortality rate, but something likely well over 10%.

You likely wont even have people to give beds/care, or air to the sick.
Not to mention enough ventilators, in such a situation.

In italy its around ~9,8% currently (confirmed vs mortalities):
Believe it or not, there health care system still funktions pretty well.

At a 70% infection rate, any system would totally collapse..... at that point hospitals would be like? whats the point.
Just stay home and die there, we cant help.


Upto ~20% require medical attention aided air (not ventilators) but a sick bed to lay down in, and 100% oxygen to help them get air through their lunges.

Thats why I dont think Mortality rates will go over 20%.
However you *could* see something like 10-15% mortality rates, if things get really nasty and health care collapses completely.



Your worse case should be:

70% infected + ~15% mortality rate =  ~34,4 million people dieing in the US.

Thats the absolutely worst, this virus can do.
Hopefully that doesnt happend but.... it gives you perspective.

The current avg growth rate in the USA is 1.25x (based on the last 5 days)
The growth rate for Italy is now 0.93x, the measures have taken effect

The USA will soon pass Italy

March 24 54916
March 25 68791 (+13875)
March 26 86135 (+17344)

Italy

March 24 69176
March 25 74058 (+4882)
March 26 78598 (+4540)

The current growth rate in the US (not averaged) is only 1.09x, testing reaching capacity again maybe, I doubt any measures have taken effect yet.
With the current lower growth rate (mean propagation of the virus is 1.16x so probably reporting too low atm)

March 24 54916
March 25 67015 (+12099)
March 26 80203 (+13188)

Doesn't matter, Thursday USA will over take Italy and China Friday by the latest. Nr 1 by the end of the week :/

"To be fair, the USA is far bigger in population. Italy has 60.000.000 people, the US 327.000.000. So in % Italy is still Nr 1 by far." - Athaba

Italy ~69,000 out of 60m population. (~0,115%)
New york ~27,000 out of 19m population. (~0,142%)

USA is so big, its probably more fair to compair Italy to say a state where the outbreak is also bad, like New York state.

Now remember that Italy has been in lockdown for like 10days already.
While Lockdown has barely just started in New York, and alot still arnt takeing it seriously.

Basically New York is weeks behinde on the time line of this spread, compaired to Italy.
So when compaireing how badly the situation is both places, you need to think a week or more ahead, for New York, when compaireing.

Things will get much worse in new york.
A week from now, the "horror" situation wont be how badly this outbreak was in italy, but instead how horrible the outbreak was in new york.

Gov. Cuomo said they expect 140,000 sick beds needed within 2 weeks.
If only 20% require a sick bed, that means theres 5 times as many infected out there.

140,000 x 5 = 700,000 infected in new york, 2 weeks from now (though testing wont have that many as confirmed cases, because most will be without symptoms).

Still those are vastly larger numbers, than in Italy.

I doubt there'll be 7.7 million deaths (let alone as a "best case scenario"). It's going way too slowly for that, and even seems to start flattening out in some places, though with hiccups so granted you can't really say anything yet.