| SpokenTruth said: The CDC estimates that between 12,000 and 60,000 people die from the seasonal flu each year in the US. Many people are still saying we are over-reacting to Covid-19 and that the Flu is much worse. I just crunched some numbers to come up with the following potential death tolls for comparison. Best case: 3 months of shelter-in-place with a 4% infection rate and a 2.5% death rate - 218,000 to 330,000 dead. Worst case: 3 months of social distancing with a 70% infection rate and a 2.5% death rate - 4,895,000 to 5,775,000 dead. Naturally the infection rate and death rate are the key factors here. |
That is not a worst case.
Worse case (70% infection rate) the health care system collapses.
By then its not 2,5% mortality rate, but something likely well over 10%.
You likely wont even have people to give beds/care, or air to the sick.
Not to mention enough ventilators, in such a situation.
In italy its around ~9,8% currently (confirmed vs mortalities):
Believe it or not, there health care system still funktions pretty well.
At a 70% infection rate, any system would totally collapse..... at that point hospitals would be like? whats the point.
Just stay home and die there, we cant help.
Upto ~20% require medical attention aided air (not ventilators) but a sick bed to lay down in, and 100% oxygen to help them get air through their lunges.
Thats why I dont think Mortality rates will go over 20%.
However you *could* see something like 10-15% mortality rates, if things get really nasty and health care collapses completely.
Your worse case should be:
70% infected + ~15% mortality rate = ~34,4 million people dieing in the US.
Thats the absolutely worst, this virus can do.
Hopefully that doesnt happend but.... it gives you perspective.
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