Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Athaba]

JRPGfan said:
"To be fair, the USA is far bigger in population. Italy has 60.000.000 people, the US 327.000.000. So in % Italy is still Nr 1 by far." - Athaba

Italy ~69,000 out of 60m population. (~0,115%)
New york ~27,000 out of 19m population. (~0,142%)

USA is so big, its probably more fair to compair Italy to say a state where the outbreak is also bad, like New York state.

Now remember that Italy has been in lockdown for like 10days already.
While Lockdown has barely just started in New York, and alot still arnt takeing it seriously.

Basically New York is weeks behinde on the time line of this spread, compaired to Italy.
So when compaireing how badly the situation is both places, you need to think a week or more ahead, for New York, when compaireing.

Things will get much worse in new york.
A week from now, the "horror" situation wont be how badly this outbreak was in italy, but instead how horrible the outbreak was in new york.

Gov. Cuomo said they expect 140,000 sick beds needed within 2 weeks.
If only 20% require a sick bed, that means theres 5 times as many infected out there.

140,000 x 5 = 700,000 infected in new york, 2 weeks from now (though testing wont have that many as confirmed cases, because most will be without symptoms).

Still those are vastly larger numbers, than in Italy.

700.000 infected sounds incredible, while there are ~400.000 infected worldwide at the moment. But your calculation is right. This may be the numbers in just 2 weeks. The US ist only at the beginning, while Italy is (hopefully) at it's peak.