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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Snoopy said:
SpokenTruth said:

And your concern for others?  Is it just as flippant?

The chances of us dying from the corona virus is slim, but the chances of us dying from isolation and economic down turn is much higher.

Unfortunately it is true.



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Snoopy said:
SpokenTruth said:

And your concern for others?  Is it just as flippant?

The chances of us dying from the corona virus is slim, but the chances of us dying from isolation and economic down turn is much higher.

Even if it slim it translates to millions of death's.  Without social distancing hundreds of millions will the the virus. 2-3% will die from the virus alone and 10% will ve hospitalized but our hospitals dont have the capacity to hold tens of millions of people at once and so some people will die from not getting treated.  Also other non coronavirus patients that need to be hospitalized wont be able to get their procedures and could die from that.

Yeah the risk is low at 2-3% but even with that other factors will make the death toll much higher. 



Another day passed. The average global growth factor for the last seven days was 1.18

I ranked the countries with over 1,000 cases (and a couple close to 1,000) on avg growth during the past 7 days:
The number between brackets is the rank on total nr cases (excluding China)

[05] US: 1.39 (doubles every 2.1 days)
[21] Brazil: 1.34
[19] Portugal: 1.32
[16] Canada: 1.26 (doubles every 3.0 days)
[08] Switzerland: 1.26
[03] Germany: 1.25
[18] Australia: 1.24
[24] Ireland: 1.21
[12] Belgium: 1.20
[11] Austria: 1.20
[10] Netherlands: 1.19 (double every 4.0 days)
[09] UK: 1.19
[02] Spain: 1.14 (doubles every 5.8 days)
[06] France: 1.12 (doubles every 6.0 days)
[17] Malaysia: 1.11
[01] Italy: 1.10 (doubles every 7.0 days)
[14] Sweden: 1.03
[13] Norway: 1.03
[15] Denmark: 1.01
[04] Iran: 1.00
[07] South Korea: 0.97

Testing ramping up or running into capacity issues last week will have its effect of course. So far only South Korea is showing a consistent decline.
Italy has been on lock down for a week and might actually be declining already since they've vastly increased their testing capacity in the past couple days skewing the numbers. France is also on total lock down but I don't know what the status is of testing there, it's working.

Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Canada, Maleysia, Australia, Portugal, Brazil and Ireland all don't have that much consistency in the data yet. But it's safe to say Canada, Brazil and Portugal need to step up their game, as well as the US. Switzerland's testing is also not that consistent but definitely still growing fast.

Based on these trends, the top 5 tomorrow would look like:
[01] Italy: 53545 (+6525)
[05] US: 27158 (+7776)
[02] Spain: 25554 (+3983)
[03] Germany: 25508 (+5660)
[04] Iran: 20881 (+1237)

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 21 March 2020

Borders closed for Belgium and Netherlands,good i can still go to work across the border because i got a certificate i can show to police as my job is deemed as essential.



Snoopy said:
SpokenTruth said:

And your concern for others?  Is it just as flippant?

The chances of us dying from the corona virus is slim, but the chances of us dying from isolation and economic down turn is much higher.

Then the problem lies in our current economical system. The virus is real, the other is man-made.



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Hiku said:

After a first approach of this growth-rate, it would seem something very negative, however this growth is more logistic than exponential; maybe it has been led by a daily massive number of tests, which is a very positive result.

1)If you do one day 20K tests and find 6K cases and the next day with the same number of tests 7K cases, this is negative.

2)If you do one day 20K tests and find 6K cases and the next day with 40K 10K cases, this is positive.

Now I don't know the number of daily tests in US but, if it is something like 2) scenario, this will lead US to a curve very similar to that of S.Korea(<100K cases at the end), if instead it is something like 1), this will lead US to a curve very similar to that of Italy(>100K cases at the end).

Last edited by supermattia10 - on 21 March 2020

SvennoJ said:

Another day passed. The average global growth factor for the last seven days was 1.18

I ranked the countries with over 1,000 cases (and a couple close to 1,000) on avg growth during the past 7 days:
The number between brackets is the rank on total nr cases (excluding China)

[05] US: 1.39 (doubles every 2.1 days)
[21] Brazil: 1.34
[19] Portugal: 1.32
[16] Canada: 1.26 (doubles every 3.0 days)
[08] Switzerland: 1.26
[03] Germany: 1.25
[18] Australia: 1.24
[24] Ireland: 1.21
[12] Belgium: 1.20
[11] Austria: 1.20
[10] Netherlands: 1.19 (double every 4.0 days)
[09] UK: 1.19
[02] Spain: 1.14 (doubles every 5.8 days)
[06] France: 1.12 (doubles every 6.0 days)
[17] Malaysia: 1.11
[01] Italy: 1.10 (doubles every 7.0 days)
[14] Sweden: 1.03
[13] Norway: 1.03
[15] Denmark: 1.01
[04] Iran: 1.00
[07] South Korea: 0.97

Testing ramping up or running into capacity issues last week will have its effect of course. So far only South Korea is showing a consistent decline.
Italy has been on lock down for a week and might actually be declining already since they've vastly increased their testing capacity in the past couple days skewing the numbers. France is also on total lock down but I don't know what the status is of testing there, it's working.

Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Canada, Maleysia, Australia, Portugal, Brazil and Ireland all don't have that much consistency in the data yet. But it's safe to say Canada, Brazil and Portugal need to step up their game, as well as the US. Switzerland's testing is also not that consistent but definitely still growing fast.

Based on these trends, the top 5 tomorrow would look like:
[01] Italy: 53545 (+6525)
[05] US: 27158 (+7776)
[02] Spain: 25554 (+3983)
[03] Germany: 25508 (+5660)
[04] Iran: 20881 (+1237)

SvennoJ thats a rather nice post.
It'll be intresting to see if things play out like that.



Player2 said:
Snoopy said:

The chances of us dying from the corona virus is slim, but the chances of us dying from isolation and economic down turn is much higher.

Then the problem lies in our current economical system. The virus is real, the other is man-made.

If it effects people it's real.



Immersiveunreality said:
Player2 said:

Then the problem lies in our current economical system. The virus is real, the other is man-made.

If it effects people it's real.

If you belive both problems are on the same level, then have politicians vote to change the virus. Solved.



Player2 said:
Immersiveunreality said:

If it effects people it's real.

If you belive both problems are on the same level, then have politicians vote to change the virus. Solved.

I do not believe it is on the same level,and assuming the severity of each is a bit silly because you do not know yet.

And still both are real,both are problems and one of each does not dissapear because the other does exist.