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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Ka-pi96 said:

I would say that's cruel to tell them on live TV, but they've already been far too cruel by locking them up without internet in the first place. Like, shouldn't that be considered illegal or something?

No, those people willingly sign up to be locked without internet. They sign the contract so is not illegal. 



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475 deaths in Italy today and god knows how much we would reach without these extreme measurements. But Elon Musk is still like "I still believe it's exaggerated" and way too many believe everything he says



Ka-pi96 said:
Chicho said:

No, those people willingly sign up to be locked without internet. They sign the contract so is not illegal. 

I'd sign a no internet contract too if somebody had a gun to my head... wouldn't make it legal though!

Nobody put a gun to their head they willingly do it. That is why is not illegal. Nobody forced them to do it.



SvennoJ said:
Pyro as Bill said:

I meant this. I get that trained professionals are more important but if each country has a different peak, it's a lot easier to get medics in and out than ship ventilators from hospital A to hospital B.

The kids can have a school camping trip and the 18-30s can be offered a free ticket to a giant pox party music festival and make their own decision. What's the alternative? House arrest until a vaccine comes along seems a lot more dictatorial.

You saw the other pictures. The mention of ventilators as the bottleneck is nothing more than a simplification, there is a lot more to it than hooking someone up to a ventilator. More ventilators and you simply run into the next bottleneck. But yep more will help and China is sending them to Italy to help out as well as medical personal. Which is why it's so important to stretch this out and prevent simultaneous peaks all over the world.

The alternative is not to subject your whole population to a new disease with still many unknowns. Plus plenty younger people still need medical help to get through this. Not only old get sick.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184291/coronavirus-covid-19-young-people-sick-vulnerable-affected-severe-cases

Yes there are far fewer, but intentionally spreading the virus to millions of young people will still bring down the healthcare system. See the mitigation scenarios here https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

As a percentage of the current 115k infected, the total young people needing critical care is very small.
Looking at under 20 for the UK, that's 7.6 million, about 4 million in there 20's and so on. The mortality rate for these groups is still estimated at 0.2% or about 15 thousand under 20, 8 thousand deaths in the 20 to 30 range. Plus at least double of that will need ICU to get through the disease with 4K ICU beds available in the UK, thus more won't survive.

Is that a sacrifice you're willing to make?

I was using the numbers from the Italian and South Korean studies which have no-one under 30 dying and have lower percentages than China for 30-39yr olds. I wouldn't be so blase about 0.2%.

If we knew the probability of a more deadly mutation then 0.2% could be a no-brainer assuming it offers some immunity.



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Italy has confirmed they're only testing people in the at-risk groups. That would explain their high rate of hospitalizations and old people being infected.

Also, it seems the disease can still reemerge in some people being treated with antivirals. This isn't an unusual pattern, where a viral infection can be supressed to the point of being undetectable and untransmissible but then resurfaces after some time. Still that's a positive outcome when someone is infected by high viral loads.



 

 

 

 

 

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I've returned from the US to my parents' hometown, and we're about to enter a soft lockdown come saturday, with only 1 confirmed case to 400,000 people. That's the right decision, IMO.



 

 

 

 

 

John2290 said:
Pyro as Bill said:

I was using the numbers from the Italian and South Korean studies which have no-one under 30 dying and have lower percentages than China for 30-39yr olds. I wouldn't be so blase about 0.2%.

If we knew the probability of a more deadly mutation then 0.2% could be a no-brainer assuming it offers some immunity.

How gas the mood changed now in the UK after Boris' team addmitted 400,000 thousand would die with their plan. Are people willing to do the soft lockdown or are they ignoring it?

Who's plan? Imperial College's?

Yeah most people trust ICL and understand that some measures that seem common sense can do more harm than good. We're less than a week away from the full lockdown, imo. I'm pretty sure ICL have their reasons for why it's better to slowly introduce measures instead of doing things like surprise lockdowns that result in people fleeing to the rest of the country when the plans are leaked to the press.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
SvennoJ said:

You saw the other pictures. The mention of ventilators as the bottleneck is nothing more than a simplification, there is a lot more to it than hooking someone up to a ventilator. More ventilators and you simply run into the next bottleneck. But yep more will help and China is sending them to Italy to help out as well as medical personal. Which is why it's so important to stretch this out and prevent simultaneous peaks all over the world.

The alternative is not to subject your whole population to a new disease with still many unknowns. Plus plenty younger people still need medical help to get through this. Not only old get sick.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/21184291/coronavirus-covid-19-young-people-sick-vulnerable-affected-severe-cases

Yes there are far fewer, but intentionally spreading the virus to millions of young people will still bring down the healthcare system. See the mitigation scenarios here https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

As a percentage of the current 115k infected, the total young people needing critical care is very small.
Looking at under 20 for the UK, that's 7.6 million, about 4 million in there 20's and so on. The mortality rate for these groups is still estimated at 0.2% or about 15 thousand under 20, 8 thousand deaths in the 20 to 30 range. Plus at least double of that will need ICU to get through the disease with 4K ICU beds available in the UK, thus more won't survive.

Is that a sacrifice you're willing to make?

I was using the numbers from the Italian and South Korean studies which have no-one under 30 dying and have lower percentages than China for 30-39yr olds. I wouldn't be so blase about 0.2%.

If we knew the probability of a more deadly mutation then 0.2% could be a no-brainer assuming it offers some immunity.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-cases-distribution-by-age-group-italy/
No one under 30 dying in Italy? Where did you get that from.

So far 1.1% of deaths are in 0-18 year age group, 24.3% in 19 to 50 year age group.

Assuming the 3.4% overall (Still used by the WHO) is correct:
0-18 have a 0.037% risk of death
19-50 have a 0.85% risk of death

Now maybe the over all risk is only 2%, that's still 0.02% for 18 and under according to what we know so far.
Maybe it's 1% over all, that's under a thousand deaths under 18 in the UK, yet still about 33 thousand between 20 and 50 (if the rest that need critical care can actually be saved)

China and Italy are the best statistics we have so far, over 6,000 deaths combined. South Korea only has 93 deaths so far, far too little for a statistical analysis.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 18 March 2020

SvennoJ said:
Pyro as Bill said:

I was using the numbers from the Italian and South Korean studies which have no-one under 30 dying and have lower percentages than China for 30-39yr olds. I wouldn't be so blase about 0.2%.

If we knew the probability of a more deadly mutation then 0.2% could be a no-brainer assuming it offers some immunity.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-cases-distribution-by-age-group-italy/
No one under 30 dying in Italy? Where did you get that from.

So far 1.1% of deaths are in 0-18 year age group, 24.3% in 19 to 50 year age group.

Assuming the 3.4% overall (Still used by the WHO) is correct:
0-18 have a 0.037% risk of death
19-50 have a 0.85% risk of death

Now maybe the over all risk is only 2%, that's still 0.02% for 18 and under according to what we know so far.
Maybe it's 1% over all, that's under a thousand deaths under 18 in the UK, yet still about 33 thousand between 20 and 50 (if the rest that need critical care can actually be saved)

China and Italy are the best statistics we have so far, over 6,000 deaths combined. South Korea only has 93 deaths so far, far too little for a statistical analysis.

The statista link you posted is cases not deaths.



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SvennoJ said:
Immersiveunreality said:
Neighbours stopped leaving their houses and i heard coughing from the house where the elderly couple lives,my dad his coworker got the coronavirus so now my dad can not leave his house and go work for precarious reasons to wait out if he will get the symptoms.
So i'm going to do some groceries for them tomorrow.

My neighbors made it out to go on holiday in BC :/ Not smart but whatever.

I'm doing the groceries tomorrow for my parents in law, not worth the risk for them to go out. Quick in and out, disinfect the shopping cart handlebar first, sanitizer ready in the car for right after. No face touching etc. Learning that my province hasn't even begun testing for community spread while imported cases are not far from here makes it all a bit more "better safe than sorry"

Hopefully your dad is all right! Pooling groceries also helps reduce traffic to stores. Here they also opened the drug stores an hour earlier, reserved for elderly and those at risk to get an hour to get their medical supplies safely.

Yes gonna get the groceries for 4 households tomorrow and someone else in the family is doing other households,handy there is no work tomorrow cause i need to be very early to get certain food for my sister her autistic child,it would be chaos if he does not get those and other people mostly buy them now so when my sister that works as a nurse for heavily mentally handicapped people gets home there is mostly not anything left for her to buy.

It is sad to see so many old people on their own trying to get what they need,it sometimes looks like they do not have people to take care for them.(or are just stubborn)

And thanks!