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jason1637 said:

Lol if MS is holding a big event and selling merch it has to be exclusive right? Like imagine how embarrassing an event would be just for the games to be multiplatfirm. 

Microsoft sells a ton of Minecraft merch though.



 

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derpysquirtle64 said:
Ryuu96 said:

Felt like breaking down the "losing money" argument too.

Lets say Person A is a big Bethesda fan on Playstation, if Microsoft still releases Elder Scrolls (For example) on Playstation, they will almost certainly continue to buy via Playstation.

  • Microsoft gets a 70% cut off every sale.

Now lets say Microsoft makes Elder Scrolls exclusive to its ecosystems, Person A then has no choice but to either get an Xbox or PC if they want to play it, odds are if they're a big enough fan that they will, lets say they get an Xbox.

  • Microsoft gets another Xbox sale (Series S or X).
  • Microsoft gets someone in their ecosystem.
  • Person A is likely to buy more than simply Elder Scrolls on their Xbox, so Xbox gets more 3rd party revenue (30% cut).
  • Persona A will either get the game via Game Pass as it will then literally be right around the corner, that increases Game Pass subs which is Microsoft's ultimate goal, or Person A will buy the game directly from the store, Microsoft then takes a 100% cut (or they buy physical, Microsoft gets a 70% cut).
  • Person A may get Xbox Live Gold.

Lets say they get it through PC.

  • If through Steam, Microsoft gets a 70% cut.
  • If through Bethesda, Microsoft gets a 100% cut.
  • Microsoft now owns Beth.Net so more people in their ecosystem.
  • PC is an open ecosystem, you can access Bethesda.Net, Steam and Windows Store at no extra cost, buy a Bethesda title from any of them, which means someone in the PC ecosystem also have Game Pass PC right around the corner in the same way Xbox does.

So I mean, the choice is obvious to me.

It all actually comes down to "profit" vs "engagement" decision. Microsoft can make more money by going the exclusivity route but they will inevitably lose a chunk of potential player base. Not all Bethesda games players will switch from Playstation to Xbox/PC so they will obviously be left out in the future.

Ryuu96 said:

As I pointed out, nah, not really.

Microsoft acquired Github (which at the time never profited as a company) for $7.5bn.

Microsoft acquired Linkedin (which almost everyone agrees was a massive overpayment and is still operating at a loss) for $26bn.

And yet investors are more happy than ever, Microsoft's market cap is absolutely gigantic, they're only becoming more successful, Microsoft can easily do these long-term game plans and are focused on more things than simply short term profits.

Investors are happy to see money sitting uselessly in a bank being spent too.

Of course Microsoft DOES want to profit but that doesn't mean everything has to show huge profits instantly, that wasn't the case for Linkedin, Github and it currently isn't the case for Xbox/Game Pass, Microsoft can afford to take these long term risks.

Also Xbox is in a neat position of not really having much of an effect on Microsoft's profitability as a whole, if investors don't care about Linkedin, they won't care about Bethesda which was purchased in pure cash on hand (money sitting uselessly in a bank accumulating interest).

They've used $7.5bn in a bank on a company, that company will be used to grow Game Pass, Microsoft hasn't really lost anything (they can replace that $7.5bn in a single quarter) but will gain something.

Github is still a mystery to me in terms of how it makes money. From all that happened after acquisition it is actually bound to earn even less money unless I miss something. Even private repos are now free for everyone while they always were hidden behind paywall before MS acquisition.

But let's get back on topic, such comparison is not really correct as it seems, because MS didn't significantly change the way GitHub or LinkedIn make money. In Bethesda's case we talk about potential cut of one of it's revenue streams and most likely the largest one. I can be wrong but Bethesda games sells the most on Playstation. It's a risk and a huge change on how the bought out business operates. But if I were to guess, Microsoft still hasn't decided what to do with Bethesda, so I personally don't anticipate a clear answer on "exclusivity" question during this rumoured March event. I'm not a Microsoft exec but clearly this point of time is not the best one to make such decisions for various reasons.

If by any chance Microsoft decides to put these games on PlayStation platform is not going to be because of this reason.

This is a company that keeps offering 3 months of Game Pass for $1 deals. They not only put Gears 5 on GP day one but they released it 5 days earlier for GP subscribers, while at the same time maintaining the $1 per month deal. Does this sound like a company that is desperate for short-term profits?

Look, it is no secret that companies sometimes have to sacrifice short-term profits for the long run. Why do you think Sony decided to drop a fanbase of 110m users and release Demon Souls and Ratchet & Clank only on PS5? I guess I don't have to tell you why they did that.



Ryuu96 said:

Don't see why stuff currently in development has to be multiplatform if the platforms aren't currently announced (Starfield, Elder Scrolls 6, Wolfenstein III, etc.) The only concern there would be "Do we want to annoy the developers by scrapping some of their work?" but the work would be small, Bethesda is primarily a PC developer and game development is built through PC then ported to consoles. Plus it wasn't Microsoft's money spent on porting to Playstation so Microsoft is not 'losing' anything by cancelling the PS version.

The only way the purpose of the acquisition being day one Game Pass releases makes sense is if the acquisition was a defensive one (preventing Sony, Amazon or Google from getting them), it makes absolutely zero sense otherwise to acquire a company that has almost as many employees as XGS as a whole, taking on thousands of employees to pay, funding the huge AAA's, just to put them onto Game Pass when they could have done that without acquiring the company and it would have cost them far less both in the short term and long term.

I'd agree that Game Pass would still be pushed either way but not to its full potential, for example, if you continue to release Starfield or Elder Scrolls on Playstation consoles, I can guarantee that is missing out on millions of potential Game Pass customers, they'll be hardcore Elder Scrolls fans who would definitely buy an Xbox if it was the only place to play Elder Scrolls however, they won't swap if it still releases on Playstation consoles, they aren't going to fork out buying an entire new console (or PC) which costs hundreds, just so they can get Elder Scrolls cheaper, people are very happy with paying full price for games, Lol.

They'll also stick to Playstation out of convenience, laziness, brand loyalty or as I said above, they simply don't want to buy an entire new platform just to play a game for cheaper, making them exclusive for lack of a better term would force them into the Xbox ecosystem.

If Microsoft's ultimate goal is Game Pass then making all of Bethesda's titles exclusive to Xbox ecosystems is the only way to go (PC is different as it's an open ecosystem, vast majority of folk are running Windows, if you can play Elder Scrolls on your PC then the odds are very high you can simply take a few clicks (at no cost of buying new hardware) to get Elder Scrolls on GP PC).

It'd be like Disney still releasing stuff on Netflix, it'd make no sense.

They'll miss out of Playstation revenue but we don't know how much it would increase GP Subs if they were exclusive, how much they'd increase XBL Gold subs, how much they'd increase Xbox console sales, how much they'd increase 3rd party revenue now that more people are in the Xbox ecosystem, etc. Thinking about it in terms of "They'll lose Playstation revenue" is short sighted because if they get even a million Playstation users to swap to Xbox, there is multiple ways they can make money of them now that they're in Xbox's ecosystem.

Also, Microsoft doesn't need to do anything to 'help pay the cost of the acquisition' Lol. They literally make back the cost of the acquisition in profits every quarter, their last quarter profits were like, $14bn? 

Moreover, this acquisition was done entirely through cash, of which Microsoft has about $120bn cash sitting in the bank, I can tell you that investors would much rather Microsoft actually use that cash rather than just having it sit there, the money made via Bethesda will be greater than the money made via interest of $7.5bn just sitting there in the bank and that is what Microsoft will be focused on, not making back the whole $7.5bn.

You have to spend money to make money.

And no, investors aren't going to suddenly be concerned about Xbox, I've watched a lot of these quarterly reports and investors barely ask about Xbox or its profitability, Lol, as of right now Xbox is pretty insignificant to Microsoft's revenue/profit as a whole but Satya is giving his 100% support to growing Xbox.

Also Microsoft tends to overpay for stuff a lot, case in point, Github was acquired for $7.5bn and yet has never profited as a company but Microsoft has other goals than simply short term profit, Github is huge in the software world, developer mindshare is what Microsoft is more interested here than pure profit, Microsoft have been recently trying to change their image into a pro-open source company and it also bolsters their Azure efforts which is where Microsoft is making most of its profits and trying to beat its main rival, which is Amazon.

There's also Linkedin, which practically everyone agrees Microsoft massively overpaid for at $26bn, chances of them ever profiting more than that off Linkedin are slim (Linkedin is still operating at a loss) but Linkedin again wasn't purchased simply for short term profit reasons, they want them for the data, for the Azure platform, to improve their relationships with developers, for Microsoft integration, etc.

Most of Microsoft's recent acquisitions have been anything but short term profit, if anything short term losses, the same case should apply to Bethesda, they will be happy to the take the short term for a long term goal, which is growing Game Pass, and the best way to do that is exclusivity, Game Pass is already very likely a loss maker but Microsoft is okay with that because they have a long term vision, get Game Pass to a point where it has enough subscribers to be very profitable, along with pushing xCloud which, runs Azure, which is Microsoft's main focus as a company right now.

And cause Microsoft simply can take short term losses for long term visions cause they're making around $14bn profits every quarter, have a ever increasing trillion dollar market cap and hundreds of billions in cash, investors are very happy, Lol. As I pointed out, Linkedin and Github did not show huge profits, quite the opposite, but investors are loving Microsoft right now cause they're still growing despite that.

Satya is giving his weight behind the Xbox division because Phil sold him on Gamepass as a service that can reach a billion devices which lines up with Satya goal of turning MS into a service oriented company.  I hate to say this but everything MS is doing isn't really Xbox or even gamer centric but instead service centric.  This is why everything rides on Gamepass and how Phil will reach those billion devices.    Investors have been pushing for MS to get rid of the Xbox division for a very long time, do you believe they just suddenly lost interest in their efforts. If anything, Gamepass has shut them up for a bit but they will still rise up every now and then when they believe MS is on the wrong course.

One key point is that MS never really do things the way gamers feel is the correct course.  Lets not forget what Matt Booty stated about MS allowing their publishers doing cross platform games.

“I think we would,” Booty said when asked in an interview with Game Informer if Microsoft would allow cross-platform publishing of their games. “I think that the question is less binary about ‘should it be on Switch? Should it be on PlayStation?’ and more ‘does it make sense for the franchise?’ In other words, is it a kind of game where it would benefit from the network effect of being on a bunch of different platforms? Or is it a game where we can best support it by putting resources and making sure that our platforms – things like xCloud and Game Pass and Xbox Live, we’re really leaning in to support the game.”

As for Development studios, when has MS just canceled a project that already has been in development for a long time

On the items still in development, you have to remember there is a cost to development.  The developers who worked on the projects is no small amount of cash, especially if they have been working on those projects for years.  You have license agreements, QA, marketing etc.  Everything continue to be done until the deal is final so those people, contracts and etc are all wrapped in the cost of the project.  Its not just making those devs unhappy that is the problem, its basically throwing away millions of dollars.  Writing that money off isn't always a good thing which would be a short term goal.  We throw away all that development effort, contracts, license agreements we signed and turn the page.  There would need to be a serious net gain on Gamepass subs in order to justify such a move, especially when pitching it to the MS board and investors.

At best you may get extra content or a 6 month exclusive window but I just do not see MS making that type of move with Phil running the ship.

What I have seen time and again is that MS is never in the same hurry state that gamers are.  They do not seem to rush to decisions and have basically run their gameplan according to their rules and how they view the market.  I do not get the feeling that MS is in any rush to make Bethesda an exclusive publisher with any of their studios but that doesn't mean any new content will not be exclusive.  The heavy hitters will not go exclusive at least for whatever current iteration coming within the next 2 years.  Anything on a longer plan I can see getting the exclusive treatment but I would also believe positioning of that product will play a role in that situation. 

I personally would love for MS to publish Starfield, know it will be a huge hit and give Sony the shaft and make it exclusive.

I just believe that MS gave Bethesda a lot of autonomy and they are not going to cancel anything.  I believe for main AAA franchises, they will all be multiplatform because Bethesda will continue to want them to be.  I believe that MS will have first say in any new projects for sending work to Bethesda studios with new projects, existing IPs etc.



derpysquirtle64 said:
Machiavellian said:

I believe you are setting yourself up to be disappointed.  I highly doubt any of the big hitters will go exclusive any time soon if at all.  Anything currently in development that was already cross platform will stay that way.  The only thing in the short term you will see is a commitment to bringing all those games to Gamepass and probably day one release for the current things that are not behind some exclusive deal with Sony.

Just having those games day one on gamepass which is the ultimate goal is enough in the short term as far as MS strategy is concerned to gain more subs.  Lets just say if Startfield release this year, day one gamepass and it becomes a huge hit.  Pay 70 bones for the PC/Console or drop that into half the cost of gamepass.  Each successful game grows the service which is the ultimate goal.  

While exclusive would also do the same, it also will take a way huge sales away from those titles which in the short term will help to pay the cost of the acquisition.  A purchase this big still needs to keep the investors happy by showing huge profits or they get skittish.  MS is a huge business and most times they are not going to move at the speed gamers and fans believe they should.  Their plans probably is a more controlled burn then a brush fire.

I agree with this point, but when it comes to Starfield, it doesn't really make much sense to make it multiplatform because it is a new IP. As for the games like Fallout and TES which are guaranteed to sell tons of copies on Playstation, they will most likely stay multiplat

I agree that MS could make one power move and lets say make Starfield exclusive for 1 year on the PC/Xbox while still leaving the other big hitters like Fallout, Elder scrolls, Doom multiplat.  People tend to forget that development, QA licensing deals and other stuff that comes into play for releaasing a game has a huge cost.  I am sure that the PS development of Starfield is playable just like the PC and Xbox versions and thus a lot of money has been spent making that version.  To just throw away that investment is very pricy even for MS.  Making the game 1 year exclusive and day one purchase on GP could still have a net gain effect and also still sell huge on Sony console if Starfield end up being a huge property.



Now that's a weird selection of GwG titles.
At least I don't own any of them which is rare.



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Honor the heroes of Gears, operation 6 next week :).






Machiavellian said:
derpysquirtle64 said:

I agree with this point, but when it comes to Starfield, it doesn't really make much sense to make it multiplatform because it is a new IP. As for the games like Fallout and TES which are guaranteed to sell tons of copies on Playstation, they will most likely stay multiplat

I agree that MS could make one power move and lets say make Starfield exclusive for 1 year on the PC/Xbox while still leaving the other big hitters like Fallout, Elder scrolls, Doom multiplat.  People tend to forget that development, QA licensing deals and other stuff that comes into play for releaasing a game has a huge cost.  I am sure that the PS development of Starfield is playable just like the PC and Xbox versions and thus a lot of money has been spent making that version.  To just throw away that investment is very pricy even for MS.  Making the game 1 year exclusive and day one purchase on GP could still have a net gain effect and also still sell huge on Sony console if Starfield end up being a huge property.

Earlier, I also posted that I believe that MS will not throw away any work they did on Starfield for PS4, but seems like they decided otherwise. There is no reason not to trust insiders at this point. There is no smoke without a fire you know.



 

Ryuu96 said:

Lol, if there is any truth to this then it would be some next-level shitty marketing from Xbox, it would mean they knew it wasn't ready to be shown, knew they were delaying it before the gameplay trailer and yet still decided to show it and receive that massive PR backlash, what for? To give them an excuse to delay it? Definitely not worth it, 343's rep has taken yet another hit.

Hope it isn't true but Microsoft marketing is extremely bad sometimes.

That's one way to look at it. But I'm quite on the opposite side here. I hope Jez is right because it is better to have an issue in PR department - lying about Halo Infinite making it to Series X launch despite knowing that the delay is gonna be announced soon after, than having an issue with a complete miscommunication between 343 and top Xbox leadership. Because if Jez is wrong and they didn't know in advance that they are gonna delay it, it can mean only three things: either 343 is lying all the time when reporting to Phil about actual state of the game or Phil not realising how bad and unfinished the game is and trying to release it along Series X launch no matter what but changing an opinion after backlash.

I think everyone will agree that Xbox PR just making a mistake by sending the wrong message about the game's release is still better than any of the options stated above.



 

shikamaru317 said:

What do you guys think about the just confirmed next-gen VR headset for PS5? Do you think Microsoft needs to counter it?

Personally I think MS absolutely needs to counter it, VR is clearly not some failed gimmick like Kinect/PS Move style motion controls were, VR has showed that it is here to stay through continued growth. I don't think MS can allow PS5 to have that advantage of VR support over Xbox. MS needs to either design a proper Xbox VR headset (ideal) or at least offer support for PC VR headsets and Windows Mixed Reality headsets on Xbox Series. 

MS already will have several 1st party studios who are able to support an Xbox VR headset (as well as PC VR headsets) with content, Ninja Theory has VR experience from the Darth Vader VR game they did, Bethesda was pushing quite hard for VR so id, Bethesda Game Studios, Machine, and I believe Arkane all have VR experience/teams now, and MS can either acquire some more VR studios or build a few new VR studios or a few more VR teams at existing studios so that they have enough teams to support a VR headset with content.  

Of course they should. The issue is, as far as I know, WMR is not suited for gaming and if Steam compatibility list is anything to pay attention to, only around 30-40% of VR games are compatible with WMR headsets. So, if Microsoft doesn't want to create their own hardware (which I believe is the case), they have only two options: partner with Facebook for Oculus or partner with Valve for SteamVR. Actually, Facebook can already be ruled out, because their business model for Oculus is very console-like, they want their customers to buy games from their own store but still allow their headsets to be used with Steam VR games. I don't believe Facebook would want to allow Oculus to work with Xbox, because in this case it's a competing device. You don't need to connect your Oculus Quest to Xbox if Oculus Quest already works as a standalone device. So, this leaves Valve as an only option, but to make it work, Microsoft needs Valve to port all their SteamVR SDK, runtimes and other stuff to Xbox OS. Not an easy task which will probably require MS to pay a huge check for Valve to do it.



 

Ryuu96 said:

Fair point, yeah, the alternative is a breakdown in communication between 343 and Xbox which isn't good, Lol.

Just wish they simply delayed it without showing the gameplay video, 343's suffered enough hits to their image and trust is at an all time low in them.

Yes, but probably this was not an option. They've been teasing the whole Xbox crowd with "Halo will be the main point in Series X showcase" for so much time that they couldn't have a showcase without Halo. So, they've had a choice between hearing "Halo looks like crap" or "Where the fuck is Halo, we can't wait any longer" from the fans. As we see, they decided on the first option.