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Forums - Movies & TV - Tracking The Rise (Or Fall?) of Skywalker

Lonely_Dolphin on 13 January 2020
thismeintiel said:
Lonely_Dolphin said:
So it didn't do as well as TLJ, but what about in a vacuum? Did it still do well for movies in general? I don't follow movies so don't know the standard. It'd also be nice if we could see merchandising sales. I said earlier that Disney ultimately wins but maybe I'm mistaken, god I sure hope I am otherwise they have no reason to do better in the future.

Well, if this was a new IP, or even a so-so known one, and the budget was $200M ($300M-$400M when including marketing), this would be a good result.  Of course, considering this was a SW movie, and the budget was more like $300M (probably $450M-$500M including marketing), this is a bad result. 

As for merch, that revenue was down in 2017 and even more so in 2018.  Considering we had the massively popular Black Panther and Infinity War in 2018, SW must have been pretty low to offset the revenue from that.  Then, I believe in late 2018 or early 2019, Disney rolled their consumer products division into their parks experiences division to hide the losses.  Though, I think the last time I looked, that was down slightly, too.  Could be wrong on that.  Either way, there's a reason Disney wanted to retcon TLJ.

The lack of transparency is as always annoying. We can assume the trilogy is a failure, but only Disney really knows. In a perfect world quality would determine success, but that's not the world we live in so I have to wonder about it. Doubtless there will be another Trilogy either way.

Mr.GameCrazy said:
S.Peelman said:
I just saw a rumor video that speaks about the release of an extended cut next month or so, more or less similar to what they did with Endgame. Don’t know what to think about that.

If the extended cut is similar to Endgame, then there's probably just going to be some behind-the-scenes and deleted scenes after the credits and that's it.

From what I've heard they were testing a bunch of different endings. Could be that, and I'm definitely curious to see what they are given the one they chose was laughable.



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thismeintiel on 13 January 2020
Lonely_Dolphin said:
thismeintiel said:

Well, if this was a new IP, or even a so-so known one, and the budget was $200M ($300M-$400M when including marketing), this would be a good result.  Of course, considering this was a SW movie, and the budget was more like $300M (probably $450M-$500M including marketing), this is a bad result. 

As for merch, that revenue was down in 2017 and even more so in 2018.  Considering we had the massively popular Black Panther and Infinity War in 2018, SW must have been pretty low to offset the revenue from that.  Then, I believe in late 2018 or early 2019, Disney rolled their consumer products division into their parks experiences division to hide the losses.  Though, I think the last time I looked, that was down slightly, too.  Could be wrong on that.  Either way, there's a reason Disney wanted to retcon TLJ.

The lack of transparency is as always annoying. We can assume the trilogy is a failure, but only Disney really knows. In a perfect world quality would determine success, but that's not the world we live in so I have to wonder about it. Doubtless there will be another Trilogy either way.

Well, if we are talking about something flopping, aka losing the studio money, it definitely wasn't that.  Well, Solo actually did lose them quite a bit of money.  However, TLJ and ROS were definitely disappointments for Disney, so in that way it was a failure.  I mean we were supposed to get two new and separate trilogies before TLJ came out, one done by Rian Johnson and another which was later going to be given to David Benioff and D.B. Weiss.  According to Kathleen Kennedy, they are done with trilogies, now.  So, it's pretty obvious these films didn't perform how they were meant to.



 

Jaicee on 13 January 2020
thismeintiel said:

ROS made $15.1M on its 4th weekend. This is 31.7% lower than the $22.1M that Rogue One made in the corresponding weekend. Currently, ROS sits at $478.2M at the DBO, 0.2% higher than RO's $477.4M for the same point in time. If this continues, ROS will make end up with a DBO total of $533.3M vs RO's $532.2M.

Also, that Rogue One total is before you factor in three years of inflation between its release and now. In other words, if current trends continue, The Rise of Skywalker will not only fail to catch up to the total ticket sales of The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi, but also (domestically at least) to those of Rogue One even. The grand finale of a mainline, Skywalker Saga trilogy, likely to be bested at the American box office by a side story. Now that is pitiful.



S.Peelman on 14 January 2020
thismeintiel said:
S.Peelman said:
I just saw a rumor video that speaks about the release of an extended cut next month or so, more or less similar to what they did with Endgame. Don’t know what to think about that.

Saw a similar vid. If it happens, it's just desperation at this point. Endgame did the same thing to get it over Avatar. Considering Endgame was a much more popular movie, and its rerelease didn't help it too much, I doubt this will do much for ROS. The interest just isn't there.

Might help it go from a $1.1B movie to a $1.11B movie.

Yeah, my thoughts exactly. It’s interesting though, I’d go see it at least if only to satisfy curiosity.



thismeintiel on 15 January 2020

Going to do an update today before the weekend, since a milestone has been crossed. ROS has just passed $1B WW. ROS's DBO total has also dropped below RO's for the same point in time.

ROS sits at $481.3M at the DBO. This is 0.1% lower than RO's $481.7M. If this continues, ROS will end up with a DBO total of $531.7M vs RO's $532.2M.

Currently, the FBO makes up 51.9% of the WW BO. If this continues, ROS will end up with a FBO of $578.3M, 10.4% higher than RO's $523.9M. A WW total of $1.11B, 4.7% higher than RO's $1.06B.



 

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ironmanDX on 15 January 2020
S.Peelman said:
I just saw a rumor video that speaks about the release of an extended cut next month or so, more or less similar to what they did with Endgame. Don’t know what to think about that.

I'd wait to see wether the deleted scenes are included in the movie and it is an extended cut rather than what Mr.GameCrazy below suggested it may be... Just a behind the scenes after the credits...

Not worth the price of admission.



Mr.GameCrazy on 15 January 2020
ironmanDX said:
S.Peelman said:
I just saw a rumor video that speaks about the release of an extended cut next month or so, more or less similar to what they did with Endgame. Don’t know what to think about that.

I'd wait to see wether the deleted scenes are included in the movie and it is an extended cut rather than what Mr.GameCrazy below suggested it may be... Just a behind the scenes after the credits...

Not worth the price of admission.

It would be cool if there truly is an extended cut of the film with deleted scenes (rather than being after the credits), but I honestly don't expect that to happen. 

Last edited by Mr.GameCrazy - on 15 January 2020

KLAMarine on 16 January 2020

Crawled its way to a billion... Missed opportunity regardless. Imagine if Disney actually made a good trilogy that a great majority loved. RoS could have been a bigger hit.



thismeintiel on 19 January 2020

ROS made an estimated $8.37M in its 5th weekend at the DBO. That's 38% lower than RO's $13.5M in its 5th weekend. ROS currently sits at $492M. This is 1.3% lower than RO's $498.6M for the same point in time. If this continues, ROS will end up with a DBO total of $525.3M vs RO's $532.2M.

Currently, ROS's FBO makes up 51.9% of the WW total. If this continues, ROS will end up with a FBO total of $564.7M, 7.8% higher than RO's $523.9M. A WW total of $1.09B, 2.8% higher than RO's $1.06B.

A quick comparison to TLJ is in order because it just crossed another "milestone." ROS has also fallen $100.1M behind TLJ's DBO total for the same point in time. Its FBO fallen $138.8M behind TLJ's. A total WW deficit of ~$240M.



 

thismeintiel on 19 January 2020

There's a reason people dismiss the calendar argument. It's completely ridiculous. The calendar isn't going to stop people from coming to watch your film, if it is popular and, more importantly, good. Sure, it can play with your drops somewhat, but if people can't come because it is Xmas Eve, they will just watch it at another time. Absolutely NO ONE is going to say, "Oh man, I can't wait to watch TLJ. Oh, but wait, today I have to go shopping. Well, I guess I'll never watch it, now."

Again, ridiculous to even act like that is a thing. No, what kills your movie's legs is putting out a mediocre/poor product and bad word of mouth getting out about it. There is no reason that an ok Jumanji sequel should have better legs than a main episode in what was the largest movie brand.