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Forums - Sales Discussion - April NPD 2019 thread

Thread update.

Switch VS 3DS comparation after 26 months

Lifetime sales
Switch ~ 11.75 million
3DS ~ 8.37 million

3rd year
Switch ~ 1.26 million
3DS ~ 677K

26th month
Switch ~ 227K
3DS ~ 113K

Last edited by Ryng - on 17 May 2019

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RolStoppable said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
Thread update.

Switch VS 3DS comparation after 26 months

Lifetime sales
Switch ~ 11.75 million
3DS ~ 8.37 million

3rd year
Switch ~ 1.27 million
3DS ~ 677K

26th month
Switch ~ 227K
3DS ~ 113K

Switch sold almost twice as many units from January to April 2019 than the 3DS sold from January to April 2013. Momentum is in Switch's favor by a significant margin.

And 3DS at this point of life already had a big pricedrop and a new version... The 4th year will be very interesting to watch.



RolStoppable said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

And 3DS at this point of life already had a big pricedrop and a new version... The 4th year will be very interesting to watch.

I don't think the fourth year will be interesting. By then the 3DS will be viewed similarly to how the Wii U has been viewed for the better part of the last two years: Simply not good enough to compete in a worthwhile sales comparison, so other consoles will have to be used as measuring stick.

That's a good point, though a comparation with Wii/GBA which did >7m in the 4th year would be hard to reach, but surely would make more sense than 3DS which did 2.57 million.



RolStoppable said:
Switch numbers are okay. Neither the comparison to Switch's last April nor the direct comparison to the PS4 and XB1 this April should be used to declare the numbers great, because the bar is low in either case.

A bit perplexing that seemingly both Sony and Microsoft are targeting a late 2020 launch for their next consoles. Software releases in 2019 have hardly moved the needle on hardware sales anymore and a variety of promotions in the past will lessen the impact of an official price drop in the future. 2020 won't be looking good for them when 2019 already turns into a crawl.

They both don't care. They are making a killing off of software and subscriptions currently. Low hardware sales for a year doesn't matter. They are making huge profits and that's what they want



Numbers



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Switch had a 47% market share in April, that's pretty good.



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bad ps4 numbers
sony should cut ps4 price



Bofferbrauer2 said:
[NSW] 215,000
[PS4] 166,000
[XB1] 112,000

Shore said:

Numbers out:

Switch: 227k
PS4: 148k
Xbox: 106k

A bit under for Switch, a bit over for PS4 and XBO

Not too got, not too shabby either - don't think that there's amny who predicted closer to the PS4 numbers.



Ryng_Tolu said:
RolStoppable said:

Switch sold almost twice as many units from January to April 2019 than the 3DS sold from January to April 2013. Momentum is in Switch's favor by a significant margin.

And 3DS at this point of life already had a big pricedrop and a new version... The 4th year will be very interesting to watch.

I think we will see a 250 dollar Switch at some point this year, whether it is a cheaper lite model or a price on the already existing model. One of those will likely happen around the time that Pokemon or Animal Crossing launches. 



RolStoppable said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

And 3DS at this point of life already had a big pricedrop and a new version... The 4th year will be very interesting to watch.

I don't think the fourth year will be interesting. By then the 3DS will be viewed similarly to how the Wii U has been viewed for the better part of the last two years: Simply not good enough to compete in a worthwhile sales comparison, so other consoles will have to be used as measuring stick.

For comparison, here is the US 3DS sales (in millions)

FYE  3/31/2011 FYE 3/31/2012 FYE 3/31/2013 FYE 3/31/2014 FYE 3/31/2015 FYE 3/31/2016
1.32 4.67 4.27 4.33 2.93 2.25

Notable Releases

  • Mario Kart 7 (12/2011)
  • Pokemon X/Y (10/2013)
  • NSMB 2 (8/2012)
  • Super Mario 3D Land (11/2011)
  • Animal Crossing New Leaf (6/2013)
  • Smash Bros 3DS (10/2014)

What's interesting about the 3DS is how it's sales trajectory shoots up very early on and then has a slow decay. It was pretty stagnant in the US for the first three years (3/31/2012 was the first full fiscal year). Moreover, a lot of its games were very front loaded with really only Pokemon and Smash in the latter years. Switch is only now just getting Pokemon and Animal Crossing, both games that will do very well. I think if you compare Switch and 3DS's sales and software, the Switch has more potential.

As an aside, I think you can tell the 3DS was propped up. Usually consoles peek in their 3rd year, but in the US it peeked in the first. This was also when it got a massive price drop. It's clear in hindsight Nintendo was propping that system up. 



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