People that are buying a PS4 these days are pretty much never going to be early adaptors of a PS5 anyway. So while PS4 sales will shrink, I'd say it's a natural thing of it being old rather than PS5 is coming in 1.5 years.

Obviously there are some people that are waiting for a PS5 rather than to chip in on a PS4.. but I dont think it's the key reason why sales are lowering.

But XboxOne Outsells the Wii U LT 3x

I'm not betting it will happen, just that i won't be surprised if it does. Let's imagine that in June 2019, Microsoft officialy annouces next Xbox showing new trailers from next gen games from their own like Halo Infinity and from companies like Ubisoft, EA, Activision, etc having marketing deals with those games but without saying price and launch date. Move forward to begin 2020 after holiday season. Announce next Xbox launching in March 2020 at $499 (a very powerful console) with updates from current gen games, extended gamepass service and minor exlusive games to launch in NA, some parts of Europe and rest of the world. By E3 2020 just announce more games for the end of the year and the launch date of Halo Infinity by October 2020. Next Xbox launching in March at least selling 2-3M worldwide during first month. By October at the time of Halo Inifinty launch you have around 3M units sold in USA and it sells around 1M more during that month. Not only that, by that time next Xbox launch in the rest of markets in the world. So if PS5 launches in November 2020 like i expect, you can have Next Xbox having already sold around 6-7M worldwide (and around 3M just in USA) before that and with one of the bigger games of the year in the holiday season. So XB automatically is the console with bigger userbase for 3rd party games. And if 499$ is too much you can low the price during 2021. In my opinion that would be the only way to stole the thunder from PS5 and their exclusives lineup.

I just think that if next Xbox launches alongside PS5 again, they will lose the battle once more....

Yes because there was a lot of stock back at Q3. So is perfectly normal that during Q4 there will be more Switch sold to consumers than units shipped to stores. In the end, by Q4 there has to be around 1'5-2'0M units on shelves. If you make the math, 33'0M units sold to consumers by the end of March plus 2'0M on shelves = 35'0M shipped units. 

Like i said, i did not said i expect Switch to miss the target, if fact i said Switch is performing exactly as expected to reach that goal. What I said is that to me 2'0M on shelves is a little too big number for me (and that's why i said there was a possibility Switch was selling even better than VGC showing), but that it's perfectly possible if Nintendo has some strategy behind that.

I will admit that because i was rounding numbers, in my mind i was saying "it's a little bit too much" because i was thinking 2'0M or more on shelves, but like you said, if they reach 17'0M that would be around 34'8M shipped, and just around 1'8-1'9M on shelves which is perfectly fine. So thanks to allow me to clarify that.

Shipped doesnt mean on the shelves though. Assuming your numbers turn out to be correct and sell through is 33M and shipments are 35M, there's not going to be 2M switches on shelves, a lot of those are in transition. And to think 2M on the shelves is too much but 1.8-1.9M is perfectly fine doesnt really make much sense either.

We do know that Switch had a record setting quarter jan-march for this gen in the US, we do know the Switch is up 40% in the same period in Japan so it's safe to assume that while Nintendo certainly had a lot of stock left after Q3, it's currently on a very very high pace across the the two biggest markets. It's very likely that's a worldwide occurance and not just those two countries. I think Nintendo shipping 2.5M for the quarter would be a massive surprise by all accounts,

I guess you were referring to me so i quote you:

Oh come on!, when i said "on the shelves" is like every other same situation for any console. If you prefer on the shelves+in trasition that's what i meant.

And i said "a little bit too much" and i explained already what i meant with that, that i was saying that if "on shelves" were 2'0, 2'1 or even 2'2M. So 200k, 300k, 400k units more, that the meaning of a "little bit". I said too that it was just my opinion, but that is perfectly possible it can happen too, i never insinuated it's not going to happen, in fact i said there will be 3 possible outcomes but i guess no one care of that part.... One of them even that Switch has sold more than VGC showing.

Switch could sell 4'0M to consumers in Q4 and still "only" ship 2'5M. It's perfectly possible, but again, i'm not saying this is what is going to happen. Like i said, rounding numbers, 2'5M shipped and 3'5M units sold to consumers like VGC is showing is perfectly fine, and i think is what is happening in reality.

So yeah, 2'5M for Q4, 17'0M for FY2018, 34'8M for total shipments, and around 33'0M sold to consumers with around 1'8M left to sell. Like i said in the first sentence of my original post, "performing as expected" not just for me but for Nintendo themselves.

Your argument is all well and good but do you have any proof Nintendo overshipped in Q3 other than your own supposition?

Where did i said Nintendo overshipped in Q3?? Nintendo shipped exactly what they had to, that's why back in January i was so convinced Switch had sold to consumers around 29'5M before VGC made adjustments, because i expected 2'5-3'0M "on shelves". Switch shipped 32'3M total after Q3 and VGC showed 29'5M units sold to consumers by the end of the year. And that was confirmed the moment Nintendo themselves said Switch just surpassed 30M units sold to consumers by the end of January. So yeah, in the end there was 2'8M left to sell after Q3 according to VGC. That's a lot and that's why i don't expect Q4 shipments to be bigger than 2'5M like Nintendo is not expecting it either. Thanks to stock left plus shipments this quarter, that's why Switch is selling around 3'5M to consumers this past quarter.

Nintendo is going to announce in a few days that Switch has shipped around 35M (because that's what Nintendo said they expect to ship after saying they expect to ship 17'0M this FY), that could be 34'8M, 35'0M, 35'2M in the end, ... something around that, and that shows that the numbers VGC is showing are probably correct.

I really don't see what's it's triggering so many reactions to my comments. What i am saying is not that difficult to accept....

What deems this to be the expected though? Do you think Nintendo expected to be 40% up YoY in Japan in Q4, do you think Nintendo expected Q4 to be the best selling jan-mar this generation for any platform? I dont.

I think 17M is on the low end, I believe Switch has performed much better this quarter than Nintendo expected. But who knows, we will find out in matter of days though ;p

I'm still betting on 17.5-18M

Nintendo themselves said they expect Switch shipping exactly 17'0M units this FY. That's not something i invented, and they said that just after announcing Q3 numbers, so i don't expect Nintendo suddenly changing that much their expectations for the last quarter of the FY, and sales to consumers seems to confirm that number, because VGC is already showing that growth in JP and US, and still the total sales to consumers are what they are.

I already explained why Switch sales to consumers can be so high and shipments not that much. In fact, it's perfectly reasonable what is happening, but ey, we'll see it when Nintendo confirm the numbers in a few days if you don't want to accept what i'm saying.