Shipped doesnt mean on the shelves though. Assuming your numbers turn out to be correct and sell through is 33M and shipments are 35M, there's not going to be 2M switches on shelves, a lot of those are in transition. And to think 2M on the shelves is too much but 1.8-1.9M is perfectly fine doesnt really make much sense either.
We do know that Switch had a record setting quarter jan-march for this gen in the US, we do know the Switch is up 40% in the same period in Japan so it's safe to assume that while Nintendo certainly had a lot of stock left after Q3, it's currently on a very very high pace across the the two biggest markets. It's very likely that's a worldwide occurance and not just those two countries. I think Nintendo shipping 2.5M for the quarter would be a massive surprise by all accounts,
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