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colafitte on 23 April 2019
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peachbuggy said:
colafitte said:

I guess you were referring to me so i quote you:

Oh come on!, when i said "on the shelves" is like every other same situation for any console. If you prefer on the shelves+in trasition that's what i meant.

And i said "a little bit too much" and i explained already what i meant with that, that i was saying that if "on shelves" were 2'0, 2'1 or even 2'2M. So 200k, 300k, 400k units more, that the meaning of a "little bit". I said too that it was just my opinion, but that is perfectly possible it can happen too, i never insinuated it's not going to happen, in fact i said there will be 3 possible outcomes but i guess no one care of that part.... One of them even that Switch has sold more than VGC showing.

Switch could sell 4'0M to consumers in Q4 and still "only" ship 2'5M. It's perfectly possible, but again, i'm not saying this is what is going to happen. Like i said, rounding numbers, 2'5M shipped and 3'5M units sold to consumers like VGC is showing is perfectly fine, and i think is what is happening in reality.

So yeah, 2'5M for Q4, 17'0M for FY2018, 34'8M for total shipments, and around 33'0M sold to consumers with around 1'8M left to sell. Like i said in the first sentence of my original post, "performing as expected" not just for me but for Nintendo themselves.

Your argument is all well and good but do you have any proof Nintendo overshipped in Q3 other than your own supposition?

Where did i said Nintendo overshipped in Q3?? Nintendo shipped exactly what they had to, that's why back in January i was so convinced Switch had sold to consumers around 29'5M before VGC made adjustments, because i expected 2'5-3'0M "on shelves". Switch shipped 32'3M total after Q3 and VGC showed 29'5M units sold to consumers by the end of the year. And that was confirmed the moment Nintendo themselves said Switch just surpassed 30M units sold to consumers by the end of January. So yeah, in the end there was 2'8M left to sell after Q3 according to VGC. That's a lot and that's why i don't expect Q4 shipments to be bigger than 2'5M like Nintendo is not expecting it either. Thanks to stock left plus shipments this quarter, that's why Switch is selling around 3'5M to consumers this past quarter.

Nintendo is going to announce in a few days that Switch has shipped around 35M (because that's what Nintendo said they expect to ship after saying they expect to ship 17'0M this FY), that could be 34'8M, 35'0M, 35'2M in the end, ... something around that, and that shows that the numbers VGC is showing are probably correct.

I really don't see what's it's triggering so many reactions to my comments. What i am saying is not that difficult to accept....