Global Hardware 6 April 2019

[Mbolibombo]

colafitte said:

Mbolibombo said:
Shipped doesnt mean on the shelves though. Assuming your numbers turn out to be correct and sell through is 33M and shipments are 35M, there's not going to be 2M switches on shelves, a lot of those are in transition. And to think 2M on the shelves is too much but 1.8-1.9M is perfectly fine doesnt really make much sense either.

We do know that Switch had a record setting quarter jan-march for this gen in the US, we do know the Switch is up 40% in the same period in Japan so it's safe to assume that while Nintendo certainly had a lot of stock left after Q3, it's currently on a very very high pace across the the two biggest markets. It's very likely that's a worldwide occurance and not just those two countries. I think Nintendo shipping 2.5M for the quarter would be a massive surprise by all accounts,

I guess you were referring to me so i quote you:

Oh come on!, when i said "on the shelves" is like every other same situation for any console. If you prefer on the shelves+in trasition that's what i meant.

And i said "a little bit too much" and i explained already what i meant with that, that i was saying that if "on shelves" were 2'0, 2'1 or even 2'2M. So 200k, 300k, 400k units more, that the meaning of a "little bit". I said too that it was just my opinion, but that is perfectly possible it can happen too, i never insinuated it's not going to happen, in fact i said there will be 3 possible outcomes but i guess no one care of that part.... One of them even that Switch has sold more than VGC showing.

Switch could sell 4'0M to consumers in Q4 and still "only" ship 2'5M. It's perfectly possible, but again, i'm not saying this is what is going to happen. Like i said, rounding numbers, 2'5M shipped and 3'5M units sold to consumers like VGC is showing is perfectly fine, and i think is what is happening in reality.

So yeah, 2'5M for Q4, 17'0M for FY2018, 34'8M for total shipments, and around 33'0M sold to consumers with around 1'8M left to sell. Like i said in the first sentence of my original post, "performing as expected" not just for me but for Nintendo themselves.

What deems this to be the expected though? Do you think Nintendo expected to be 40% up YoY in Japan in Q4, do you think Nintendo expected Q4 to be the best selling jan-mar this generation for any platform? I dont.

I think 17M is on the low end, I believe Switch has performed much better this quarter than Nintendo expected. But who knows, we will find out in matter of days though ;p

I'm still betting on 17.5-18M