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Forums - Politics Discussion - Climate change is inconsequential (because Peak Oil is a bigger issue)

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/10/trumps-always-shifting-views-on-climate-change/573037/
Trump has changed his views on climate change. Before the election of 2016 he claimed climate change is a hoax and he does not believe in it. Now he believes in it but does not believe it is man made.

Maybe climate change is due to environmental factors that are not caused by humans. There is climate change but humans are not responsible for it. It is like an earthquake, tidal wave, volcano, flood, storm, hurricane, solar flare, etc, an act of God that is not caused by humans.



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The fuck are you talking about? Energy production by oil is at a mere 3% of all energy sources. So fuck off with your "source of most energy is oil". Even if we take into account the use of oil for transportation we're not even close to a level that solar, wind, water, heat, coal, gas and nuclear power could not replace.

And even if we couldn't, the reserves are still absolutely fine for a at least a few more decades, most likely even longer since oil consumption is dropping. The current oil shortages are completely man made.



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the-pi-guy said:
o_O.Q said:

"No.  But when most of humanity's progress has been done because of the climate's consistency, we should make sure the future is also optimal for progress. "

isn't the idea to hinder humanity's progress to reduce climate change?

No.

I don't know a single person advocating hindering humanities progress to fight climate change.  The idea is to make progress and figure out cleaner ways to do things.    

I've only ever heard this idea by climate skeptics who think the only way to fight climate change is by "living like cave men".  

It's ludicrous.  

o_O.Q said:

"Of course it's possible."

well seems to me like climate change is being used to push the argument that capitalism needs to end and we need to hinder what people can experiment with and invest in on their own

and obviously this precludes the idea that people privately can come up with solutions for these problems 

but if the motivation among many was to end that to begin with... well.. its not really surprising is it?

What.

Capitalism doesn't end with regulations.  On the contrary it's about ensuring that people are able to experiment and invest in things in the future.

  @bold, no it doesn't.

There are already such projects underway.  

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/first-commercial-co2-capture-plant-live-21494

https://www.gasworld.com/china-establishes-worlds-18th-ccs-facility/2015265.article

Even still it's hard to capture the carbon dioxide from a billion cars, facilities, etc.  

o_O.Q said:

"Everyone knows there are natural cycles of warming and cooling.  "

no not everyone

....

Everyone who knows anything about climate knows that natural cycles exist.  

o_O.Q said:

"You're basically arguing that "things were going to go bad anyway some time in the future, so why does it matter?"  "

no that was not my argument, i'm asking when do we expect the "natural" warming to occur and what are we going to do about it

i've honestly never heard that discussed in all of this

https://skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-period-intermediate.htm

"Scientists have shown that COand climate moved in lock-step throughout the Pleistoceneice ages. The ice ages were actually many pulses of cold glacial phases interspersed with warmer interglacials. These pulses had a distinct regularity caused by wobbles in Earth’s orbit around the Sun (Milankovitch cycles). When Earth’s orbit reduced the intensity of sunlight in the northern hemisphere, the Earth went into a glacial phase. When the orbital cycle brought increased the intensity of insolation in the northern hemisphere, ice sheets melted and we went into a warm interglacial. Because warmer oceans can dissolve less CO2, the CO2 levels see-sawed extremely closely with Earth’s temperature. It was a slow pace of change, taking tens to hundreds of thousands of years, and yes as the myth states, in the last million years the biggest orbit-induced cycles were every 100,000 years.

But we know these orbital changes are not behind today's global warming. In fact our orbit dictates we should be cooling now, not warming."

The Earth was indeed cooling over the last 6,000 years due to Earth's orbit, heading into the next glacial phase scheduled for about the year 3500 AD. But all that changed when we got to the industrial era. Global temperatures departed from that cooling trend, and instead rose parallel with our greenhouse gas emissions.The logic of "this was going to happen anyway"

"I don't know a single person advocating hindering humanities progress to fight climate change."

i've been seeing a lot of calls to confiscate cars for example, but i'm not going to bother looking that stuff up now

"Capitalism doesn't end with regulations."

that's not what i'm talking about, i'm talking about people who are using this situation as a way to legitimise their push to end capitalism and they are an increasing presense

"The Earth was indeed cooling over the last 6,000 years due to Earth's orbit, heading into the next glacial phase scheduled for about the year 3500 AD. But all that changed when we got to the industrial era. Global temperatures departed from that cooling trend, and instead rose parallel with our greenhouse gas emissions.The logic of "this was going to happen anyway""

are we producing CO2 on the other planets as well? because they have been warming too

https://www.space.com/33001-mars-ice-age-ending-now.html

were you aware of that?



SpokenTruth said:
o_O.Q said:
something that i've been wondering about for some time now is that it is known that the planet has gone through repeated cycles of cooling and heating over time
causing various degrees of flooding and ice formation over that time
is the current climate science suggesting that we humans are somehow going to keep the state of he planet constant going forwards?
because obviously at some point in the future the planet will warm up regardless of our impact on it since we've been coming out of an ice age... i'd like to hear some discussion on that

Earth has had many cooling and heating trends in the past.  What separates those trends to this one is the rate of change.

Past trends took thousands to even millions of years to achieve the same type of changes we are currently witnessing in just 200 years.  It simply a much faster rate of change than any previous period.  So the question is why is it changing so fast?  After extensive research for decades, we have concluded that we are the responsible party for that change.

As for the future, it's difficult to determine when 'natural' changes will take place and how long it takes for them to happen because we've altered the natural cycle.    So the previous of 'natural' changes cannot happen independently of our own impact on that change.  The dire implication is that if our impact and the natural cycle coincide and magnify each other...we largely won't survive it. 

"Past trends took thousands to even millions of years to achieve the same type of changes we are currently witnessing in just 200 years. "

can you post a link for this?

"As for the future, it's difficult to determine when 'natural' changes will take place and how long it takes for them to happen because we've altered the natural cycle."

for the other planets as well?

https://www.space.com/33001-mars-ice-age-ending-now.html

"The dire implication is that if our impact and the natural cycle coincide and magnify each other...we largely won't survive it. "

at some point we were not going to survive anyway... this planet for vast stretches of time was uninhabitable and it will become that way again with time



kirby007 said:
Mnementh said:

Well, germany is certainly not deindustrialized and had 35% of electric power generated by renewable sources in 2018: https://ag-energiebilanzen.de/index.php?article_id=29&fileName=20181214_brd_stromerzeugung1990-2018.pdf

After a certain while you are going to get deminishing returns on waterpowerplants and locations for those, just like windmills and solarscreens

Global warming is causing more rain in some areas, good for hydro electric power. More wind isn't always good as windmills can't operate above a certain wind speed and more cloud cover is bad for solar. Of course in other regions, more desertification is good for solar power.

Storing energy to level out demand is the biggest problem with solar and wind. Nuclear is still needed to fill in the gaps or rather that's cheaper than converting water to Hydrogen for later use.

Actually, I see gas is used to meet demand. Nuclear is steady and the biggest supplier
http://www.ieso.ca/power-data
Solar is big on-site or embedded. Solar farms aren't that popular.

It's mainly cars/trucks/planes/ships that need all the oil to run. According to Google, 70% of oil consumption in the US is for transportation. Buy local food is one easy way to help the climate. Drive less, get a more fuel efficient car, work closer to home.



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Dark_Lord_2008 said:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/10/trumps-always-shifting-views-on-climate-change/573037/
Trump has changed his views on climate change. Before the election of 2016 he claimed climate change is a hoax and he does not believe in it. Now he believes in it but does not believe it is man made.

Maybe climate change is due to environmental factors that are not caused by humans. There is climate change but humans are not responsible for it. It is like an earthquake, tidal wave, volcano, flood, storm, hurricane, solar flare, etc, an act of God that is not caused by humans.

Apart from solar flares, all the others can also be caused by human activity!
Global warming increases severe storms while mining and fracking can cause earth quakes or tremors that can speed up volcanic activity, as well as cause tidal waves.



Dark_Lord_2008 said:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/10/trumps-always-shifting-views-on-climate-change/573037/
Trump has changed his views on climate change. Before the election of 2016 he claimed climate change is a hoax and he does not believe in it. Now he believes in it but does not believe it is man made.

Maybe climate change is due to environmental factors that are not caused by humans. There is climate change but humans are not responsible for it. It is like an earthquake, tidal wave, volcano, flood, storm, hurricane, solar flare, etc, an act of God that is not caused by humans.

A bit of a jump from you denying the existence of climate change to now backing it... But still ignoring the overwhelming evidence of human influences that I provided prior. I guess some progress is better than absolutely nothing I guess?

Where do any of us get off in ignoring the majority consensus of the entire scientific community? These are people who are experts in their field... And they believe climate change is caused in-part by humans.

It's a sad day when individuals in society will place a politician like Trump with a ton of self-preserving interests and zero accreditation in the field above the majority of the scientific community.
Trump is not an expert, his opinion should hold zero weight on the matter... Yet here we are.

SvennoJ said:

It's mainly cars/trucks/planes/ships that need all the oil to run. According to Google, 70% of oil consumption in the US is for transportation. Buy local food is one easy way to help the climate. Drive less, get a more fuel efficient car, work closer to home.

Well. Hydrogen is a good fuel replacement.
But in the mean-time there are cleaner alternatives to obtaining oil than extracting it out of the ground. Fuel crops are gaining more importance.

o_O.Q said:

"As for the future, it's difficult to determine when 'natural' changes will take place and how long it takes for them to happen because we've altered the natural cycle."

for the other planets as well?

https://www.space.com/33001-mars-ice-age-ending-now.html

Keep in mind the time scales we are talking about here.




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o_O.Q said:
SpokenTruth said:

Earth has had many cooling and heating trends in the past.  What separates those trends to this one is the rate of change.

Past trends took thousands to even millions of years to achieve the same type of changes we are currently witnessing in just 200 years.  It simply a much faster rate of change than any previous period.  So the question is why is it changing so fast?  After extensive research for decades, we have concluded that we are the responsible party for that change.

As for the future, it's difficult to determine when 'natural' changes will take place and how long it takes for them to happen because we've altered the natural cycle.    So the previous of 'natural' changes cannot happen independently of our own impact on that change.  The dire implication is that if our impact and the natural cycle coincide and magnify each other...we largely won't survive it. 

"Past trends took thousands to even millions of years to achieve the same type of changes we are currently witnessing in just 200 years. "

can you post a link for this?

"As for the future, it's difficult to determine when 'natural' changes will take place and how long it takes for them to happen because we've altered the natural cycle."

for the other planets as well?

https://www.space.com/33001-mars-ice-age-ending-now.html

"The dire implication is that if our impact and the natural cycle coincide and magnify each other...we largely won't survive it. "

at some point we were not going to survive anyway... this planet for vast stretches of time was uninhabitable and it will become that way again with time

Here on this diagram you see the changes ove the last: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5f/All_palaeotemps.svg

It does fluctuate a fair bit, but that's due to time compression outside of the ice ages. Even then, the spikes are less high than the 2050 projection, and much less than the 2100, which rise from the base value (1960-1990 mean temperature) even surpasses the spikes after some ice ages. The only exception is the PETM, or Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, which happened over 56 Million years ago, and from where we know some of the effects of such a rapid heat increase, like the shifting of sea currents, the methane clathrates and the acidification of the oceans, which is devastating for most sea life with shells, like corals or mollusks.

Did I mention that it is considered an extinction event (although a minor one, since it was already very hot before)? Trees and algae thrived during that period since they feed on CO2 (much higher amounts than today of CO2 are confirmed for the period, but hey, it was also a mean 12 degree celsius (21 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter), but some fauna wasn't so lucky, especially at sea.

The earth cooled down afterwards when Antarctica slowly moved in direction of the south pole, starting to freeze over. The resulting lower sea level freed up much land in modern Canada and Siberia, and along with tectonics (eastern Siberia and Alaska rising up due to their continental plates clashing), created more land to cover in snow, this time on the northern half.

The fact that there was much life when the earth was 12 degrees hotter should not be considered a proof that we will be fine with rising temperatures, though. Life on the planet is adapted to the conditions for thousands of years now, and that includes us humans. Like the thawing after the last glacial period killed of animals like Mammouths, the speed at which the temperature rises right now will kill a lot of species which just can't adapt fast enough to the changing situations.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

The fact that there was much life when the earth was 12 degrees hotter should not be considered a proof that we will be fine with rising temperatures, though. Life on the planet is adapted to the conditions for thousands of years now, and that includes us humans. Like the thawing after the last glacial period killed of animals like Mammouths, the speed at which the temperature rises right now will kill a lot of species which just can't adapt fast enough to the changing situations.

Might I add that with Australia already having 45-50'C (113-122'F) temperatures during summer... People are already suffering and dying during those events? Road Tar is melting, shoes stick to the pavement, you literally get burn blisters on the bottom of your feet.

I couldn't imagine what 57-62'C (134.6-143.6'F) would be like... Let alone the horrific fire conditions it would present on top of some of the already worst fire conditions in the world.

Not to mention the devastation it would cause for the flora and fauna which already struggle in those conditions, for instance Tree's drop limbs when they are stressed which causes tons of issues for safety.



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