They have been very close since the beggining of the year, with Switch mostly in front. Not to shabby of PS4 still holding on in 6th year, switch doing good even outside of relevant releases.

2018 thru March 17
PS4-3.38 million
NSW-2.33 million

2018 total
PS4-18.00 million
NSW-16.33 million

2019 thru March 16
PS4-2.70 million (-20.1%)
NSW-2.98 million (+27.9%)

2019 total using current YoY %
PS4-14.38 million
NSW-20.89 million

I have a hard time imagining PS4 being so close to NSW overall this year.

5M seems less likely than 2M difference.

I guess he was seeing Japan as more of difference maker because of the percentual gap there is bigger than USA or Europe even if the total difference for Europe is bigger.

I dont think so based on their current YoY performances up to this point.

2M is probably the difference in December alone with Pokemon and Animal Crossing. And even with just Pokemon, it should still do that difference.

Last year the PS4 lagged over 2M behind in December already (2.07M according to VGChartz), so how do you expect this year to do any less than that?

It is quite possible that by October the difference is less than 2M, but during the last 2-3 months the Switch should massively outsell the PS4.

Using % for all the year is a bad calculation. Just because in those months those were the % doesn't mean when holiday season arrives PS4 will sell 20% less and Switch 30% more than in 2018. It doesn't work that way.

PS4 was selling less during the year last year but when holiday season came, the % difference was more closer. As for Switch, Switch was behind during Jan-Oct 2018 compared to Launch-Oct 2017 and thanks to a way better holiday season it sold 3M more.

I'm pretty sure Switch won't have a 30% better Q3 in 2019 than in 2018, and considering almost half of the sales from Nintendo consoles usually come during that period, you should expect a lot less than 20'9M sold...In my humble opinion, Switch will aim this year to reach 18M sold to consumers, and right now it's on pace of doing it, but we still need more data and time to know what to expect for all the year.

And because holiday season 2019 for PS4 can be similar to 2018, you can expect PS4 being more than 15M too. 

That's what i think will happen.

I know, I was giving a general idea of how sales are trending so far, of course they aren't going to be exactly that.

I think you're mixed up about PS4 last year.

Jan-Oct 2017, 13.02m

Nov+Dec 2017, 7.11m

Jan-Oct 2018, 11.71m (-10.1%)

Nov+Dec 2018, 6.29m (-11.6%)

The holidays were down more than non-holiday months.

There is nothing announced for April-October that will change it's current trend as last year had God of War, Spider Man & Red Dead and this year doesnt currently have anything close to their sales potential. There is also zero reason to believe this holiday wont be comfortably down YoY for PS4.

As for Switch I have a hard time believing it will only be up ~10% YoY for the full year when its already up ~28% with the last big title having released 2 months ago. Its lineup from June onward is more stacked than last year and it is heavily rumored to be getting 2 revisions later this year.

It might not be up ~28% for the whole year but anything under 20% would surprise me.

In respect of PS4 i was talking from memory, so maybe i wasn't completely accurate indeed.... But i was referring to the period that Sony considers "Holiday season", around 20 Nov-31 dec.

As for Switch, i must admit is surpassing my expectations as right now. If i remember correctly I expected around 17'5-18'0M in 2019 back in January, so maybe it can do better. But i remind to myself that it has grown a lot mostly this year thanks to Japan, and that Switch, due to a lot of stock left because of Q3 shipments has had a lot of deals everywhere that helped a lot of the sales recently, despite no new big games. That why i want to see what Switch does starting the new fiscal year. So yes, Switch now seems to me more capable to do 18'5-19'0M in 2019 which will be amazingly good, but I will stick to my 17'5-18'0M prediction yet.

And PS4, is more than probable it is going to receive a discount this year or have constant good deals through the year that will help soften the downward trend of sales this year. I don't think it will remain -20% YOY all the year until holiday season. That's why i expect PS4 doing around 15-16M in 2019.

Both consoles are going to do amazingly well this year, respecting their own circunstances.

Its grown alot in the US as well, Jan & Feb were both up 30% on a weekly average. Also what do you mean alot of deals everywhere? It has yet to drop below MSRP. They had a couple added value bundles but that's pretty normal to start happening when a console is 2 years old, it has little to do with shipments.

Why are your projections for PS4 factoring in a price cut but they seem to be ignoring a price cut or revision for Switch?