Yes, last year was 191,852

To reach those 3-4M then Switch may not outsell the PS4 by more than 1-2M through October, and sell on par in November, as the 2M gap in December will certainly happen again.

I seriously doubt that to be the case, even with a pricecut for the PS4 and no pricecut or revision for the Switch.

Switch is selling without any releases on par with the PS4 with big releases (like, The Division 2 this week for instance). This can go on until Super Mario Maker 2, where Nintendo starts shifting into higher gear this year. Come summer, and the slew of Switch releases and nothing big on PS4 side will make the gap grow pretty fast during summer and fall, before the PS4 getting trashed by the Switch during the holidays.

I will give up my first point on deals because despite remember reading there was deals for Switch in various places in the west during Jan and Feb i am too lazy to search in the internet to prove my point. So let's say i was not right on this.

I wasn't trying to say Switch was overshipped. It was correctly shipped due to time and circunstances. Every console that is very succesful in Q3 has around 2-3M left in stock. It happened to every other succesful console and it happens in other markets with other procuts too. When you had so much stock left, you have to sell it and it's very common that companies use very good deals during some points in the year to sell that stock. I just think that Nintendo to reach their goal for FY, they used those deals (that i can't prove anyway because i am lazy) and that's is why Switch sold so good during Jan and Feb. But that's just my impression, nothing more.

As for the last point. It was not a contradiction. What i meant to say is....that if i was in charge of Nintendo and Sony, i will not make a price cut for Switch because it'ss selling according to plan and even better than expected but i'll do it for PS4 because i think the sales are going to be lower than desired. Neither decision is based in rumors about future, i am just reading the sales numbers right now and anticipating what's going to happen.

In my defense, i never saind Japan was the "only place notably up YOY". i Just said that if Switch is 2'98M in 2019 compared to 2'33M in 2018, is thanks because "mostly" Japan because it has sold 200-300k more this year than last (as for last MC numbers, exactly 263k more than last year, a 41% growth YOY), so almost half the growth comes from Japan. But that doesn't mean it didn't grow in USA too, just not that much.

Sorry but a sequel of The Division isn't a big game or something that pushes HW up for any notable amount. Smash and Let's go tail push more HW than it. I would say that Oddissey and Zelda as evergreen they seem to be also push more than The Division 2.

Sony doesn't get much bigger than that this year anymore by the looks of it. So, by comparison with the rest of the releases, yes, it is a big game release.

Days Gone is a bigger game, Sekiro and DMC5 were much bigger game also as new acclaimed IP and first in the gen. There is good chance of Death Stranding, TLOU2 and Tsushijima launching this year.

Anyway you are basically comparing regular weeks from both System but consider one as PS4 at max due to a game that doesn't really push HW against Switch at minimum because it doesn't have games. And that imho isn't the truth, the truth is that when we see all weeks since start of january both systems have been quite close to one another.

Division was an example.

PS4 release schedule

January 18-Ace Combat 7

January 25-Resident Evil 2

January 29-Kingdom Hearts

February 4-Apex Legends

February 15-Jump Force

February 15-Far Cry: New Dawn

February 15-Metro Exodus

February 22-Anthem

March 8-Devil May Cry 5

March 15-The Division 2

Switch release schedule

January 11-New Super Mario Bros. Deluxe

If Switch has sold on par/better than PS4 in a time where it's going through a bit of a dry spell versus PS4 getting notable releases nearly every week than the gap will be pretty notable later this year.

These are certainly much better examples, still that is basically the norm for PS4 if look at it.

Also the bigger games will still release at the end of the year. Anyway as I said I find it hard to happen Switch 20+M and PS4 15-M for this year (next year that is pretty much a given).

The problem with that logic is that it is not different than me saying, "well if you take europe out and only look at US, the Switch is constantly ahead of PS4 even without Japan."

It is all or nothing, there is no other way.  Yes it is impressive how well the PS4 is doing going into its 6th year, but that does not change the fact that the Switch is normally ahead of it this year.  You say you are not pro PS4, but you comment is one that would only be made by someone who is teying to downplay Switch sales as it is irrelevant information.