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colafitte said:
zorg1000 said:

I know, I was giving a general idea of how sales are trending so far, of course they aren't going to be exactly that.

I think you're mixed up about PS4 last year.

Jan-Oct 2017, 13.02m

Nov+Dec 2017, 7.11m

Jan-Oct 2018, 11.71m (-10.1%)

Nov+Dec 2018, 6.29m (-11.6%)

The holidays were down more than non-holiday months.

There is nothing announced for April-October that will change it's current trend as last year had God of War, Spider Man & Red Dead and this year doesnt currently have anything close to their sales potential. There is also zero reason to believe this holiday wont be comfortably down YoY for PS4.

As for Switch I have a hard time believing it will only be up ~10% YoY for the full year when its already up ~28% with the last big title having released 2 months ago. Its lineup from June onward is more stacked than last year and it is heavily rumored to be getting 2 revisions later this year.

It might not be up ~28% for the whole year but anything under 20% would surprise me.

In respect of PS4 i was talking from memory, so maybe i wasn't completely accurate indeed.... But i was referring to the period that Sony considers "Holiday season", around 20 Nov-31 dec.

As for Switch, i must admit is surpassing my expectations as right now. If i remember correctly I expected around 17'5-18'0M in 2019 back in January, so maybe it can do better. But i remind to myself that it has grown a lot mostly this year thanks to Japan, and that Switch, due to a lot of stock left because of Q3 shipments has had a lot of deals everywhere that helped a lot of the sales recently, despite no new big games. That why i want to see what Switch does starting the new fiscal year. So yes, Switch now seems to me more capable to do 18'5-19'0M in 2019 which will be amazingly good, but I will stick to my 17'5-18'0M prediction yet.

And PS4, is more than probable it is going to receive a discount this year or have constant good deals through the year that will help soften the downward trend of sales this year. I don't think it will remain -20% YOY all the year until holiday season. That's why i expect PS4 doing around 15-16M in 2019.

Both consoles are going to do amazingly well this year, respecting their own circunstances.

Its grown alot in the US as well, Jan & Feb were both up 30% on a weekly average. Also what do you mean alot of deals everywhere? It has yet to drop below MSRP. They had a couple added value bundles but that's pretty normal to start happening when a console is 2 years old, it has little to do with shipments.

Why are your projections for PS4 factoring in a price cut but they seem to be ignoring a price cut or revision for Switch?

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.