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Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Election: Democratic Party Discussion

Bofferbrauer2 on 09 January 2020
Mnementh said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

It also shows up in the polls. New polls where he leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, and on the national front, he gained 2 points in the latest Morning Consult poll and reached 23% - the highest he got since Biden announced his campaign (24%) and not far behind his highest point in this poll for these primaries (27%)

Is that so? So it is time to bring impeachement proceedings forward, so that the sitting senators (Sanders, Warren) get called back and have to sit in long hearings, while Biden and Buttigieg can campaign without competition.

Not gonna work, some news outlet (can't remember who) already explained that Bernie can allow to Jet himself from the Senate to the early States with the huge pile of cash he got from his donors and thus both do his work in the Senate and campaign on the forefront during the same day.

Moren said:
Mnementh said:

Wait, you give Warren a 0% chance?

If you had asked me a few months ago, I would have called her the most likely to win the nomination.

I think her moment has passed. She isn't doing stellar with minorities, and she's having to battle with Pete for the anti-Bernie/anti-Biden voters. I think Warren is the kind of candidate who won't survive a disappointing Iowa/NH.

I think she was doing a good job trying to balance the progressive/moderate wings of the party (unlike Kamala who tried to do the same thing and failed), but it is a pretty delicate balancing act, and I think at some point in her campaign she lost it.

It looks like she stopped dropping and is even slightly recovering now. Not enough to be a threat to Bernie and Biden for now but enough to keep everybody else at more than arm's length.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 09 January 2020

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Mnementh on 10 January 2020

538 now has a model for the outcome of the democratic primaries: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

They currently predict an average of 1484 pledged delegates for Biden (1990 are needed to snatch the nomination). 1018 are predicted for Sanders, 634 for Warren, 536 for Buttigieg. They give the odds of a candidate winning the majority (1990) of pledged delegates at 40% for Biden, 22% for Sanders, 14% for no one, 12% for Warren and 10% for Buttigieg.

They also have the states. I am surprised on the high variation of the model. To explain this a bit, they model the electorate and then run thousands of simulation with different paramters based on uncertainty in the data. So they have different outcomes and can give a probability. But for instance in 80% of these simulations gets Biden in Iowa between 4% and 49% of the votes, meaning there are 10% chance he gets even lower than 4% and 10% he gets higher than 49%. That is an incredibly broad range and shows a high level of uncertainty. Because of the 15% rule, for the allocation of the delegates there is a bit more certainty.

Remember, this will be updated as new data (polls, endorsements, financials, …) rolls in.

There is an explanation how the model works: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-2020-primary-model-works/



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LurkerJ on 10 January 2020
SpokenTruth said:
Moren said:

Bernie was in what came to be a two-way race that was very ideologically defined with an unpopular opponent, and still got trounced in the end.

Biden was in a very contested primary.

2016:
Sanders - 23 wins
Clinton - 34 wins

A huge accomplishment despite all the dismissed rigging.



tsogud on 10 January 2020
LurkerJ said:
SpokenTruth said:

2016:
Sanders - 23 wins
Clinton - 34 wins

A huge accomplishment despite all the dismissed rigging.

Hopefully it'll be harder to rig this time around now that people are paying a lot more attention.



 

tsogud on 10 January 2020
SpokenTruth said:

UPDATE: Marianne Williamson has officially suspended her campaign.

Steyer has qualified for the 7th debate.  He took a different approach than practically all other candidates for any debate.  He gained state polls rather national polls.

Today is the last day to qualify but it is highly unlikely that anyone else does. That finalizes the debate to Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Steyer, Sanders and Warren.

Poor Williamson... I enjoyed having her voice in the race. All those "crystal lady" dismissive attacks were unfair tbqh. Did she endorse anyone?



 

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zorg1000 on 10 January 2020
SpokenTruth said:

UPDATE: Marianne Williamson has officially suspended her campaign.

Steyer has qualified for the 7th debate.  He took a different approach than practically all other candidates for any debate.  He gained state polls rather national polls.

Today is the last day to qualify but it is highly unlikely that anyone else does. That finalizes the debate to Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Steyer, Sanders and Warren.

Dammit, I was hoping no more would be added to the debate.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 on 10 January 2020
SpokenTruth said:
zorg1000 said:

Dammit, I was hoping no more would be added to the debate.

Me too.  I was looking forward to a smaller 5 candidate stage presence.  Steyer snuck in at the last minute with the state polls.

I guess Steyer is fine, he talks for about 3 minutes each debate



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Moren on 10 January 2020

Steyer is white noise that I simply filter.



Mnementh on 10 January 2020
the-pi-guy said:
Mnementh said:

538 now has a model for the outcome of the democratic primaries: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

They currently predict an average of 1484 pledged delegates for Biden (1990 are needed to snatch the nomination). 1018 are predicted for Sanders, 634 for Warren, 536 for Buttigieg. They give the odds of a candidate winning the majority (1990) of pledged delegates at 40% for Biden, 22% for Sanders, 14% for no one, 12% for Warren and 10% for Buttigieg.

They also have the states. I am surprised on the high variation of the model. To explain this a bit, they model the electorate and then run thousands of simulation with different paramters based on uncertainty in the data. So they have different outcomes and can give a probability. But for instance in 80% of these simulations gets Biden in Iowa between 4% and 49% of the votes, meaning there are 10% chance he gets even lower than 4% and 10% he gets higher than 49%. That is an incredibly broad range and shows a high level of uncertainty. Because of the 15% rule, for the allocation of the delegates there is a bit more certainty.

Remember, this will be updated as new data (polls, endorsements, financials, …) rolls in.

There is an explanation how the model works: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-2020-primary-model-works/

Now:

Biden 1429

Sanders 1077

Warren 679

Buttigieg 535

Sanders gaining

Yeah, there were a few polls coming in.



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Bofferbrauer2 on 11 January 2020
the-pi-guy said:
Mnementh said:

538 now has a model for the outcome of the democratic primaries: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

They currently predict an average of 1484 pledged delegates for Biden (1990 are needed to snatch the nomination). 1018 are predicted for Sanders, 634 for Warren, 536 for Buttigieg. They give the odds of a candidate winning the majority (1990) of pledged delegates at 40% for Biden, 22% for Sanders, 14% for no one, 12% for Warren and 10% for Buttigieg.

They also have the states. I am surprised on the high variation of the model. To explain this a bit, they model the electorate and then run thousands of simulation with different paramters based on uncertainty in the data. So they have different outcomes and can give a probability. But for instance in 80% of these simulations gets Biden in Iowa between 4% and 49% of the votes, meaning there are 10% chance he gets even lower than 4% and 10% he gets higher than 49%. That is an incredibly broad range and shows a high level of uncertainty. Because of the 15% rule, for the allocation of the delegates there is a bit more certainty.

Remember, this will be updated as new data (polls, endorsements, financials, …) rolls in.

There is an explanation how the model works: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeight-2020-primary-model-works/

Now:

Biden 1429

Sanders 1077

Warren 679

Buttigieg 535

Sanders gaining

So does Warren. I think she bottomed out, at least for now.

Even though the establishment Democrats want the new left out of the Party, they are both showing that the new left is the new base of the party and the establishment is waning fast - even though they rush supporting Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar now as they fear for their seats. So if AOC, Sanders, and so on would leave the party, the democratic party would be very much weakened, which would pretty much ensure future Republican victories under winner takes all since the former Democratic vote would be split between two or even several candidates.

Edit: Adding this Video about the establishment Democrats starting to shit themselves because Bernie is rising higher and higher:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LmXdqJStp9g

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 11 January 2020

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