Forums - Sales Discussion - How many will be Nintendo's forecast for FY2019 ?

Switch shipment forecast for FY2019 ?

below 17 5 5.10%
 
17 8 8.16%
 
18 18 18.37%
 
19 9 9.18%
 
20 34 34.69%
 
21 6 6.12%
 
22 6 6.12%
 
23 4 4.08%
 
24 1 1.02%
 
25 or more 7 7.14%
 
Total:98
Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

18M is what they will aim and expect in my opinion, but I won't be surprised if it's even less than that this year in the end.

Switch is around 32m shipped and 3ds was around 29m shipped in the same time frame, and next year 3ds sales were not better that year even with yokai watch, Pokémon, luigi's mansion, monster hunter games that year.

People have to remember that when you launch a console in March, its 3rd calendar year has already around 6 or 7 months more than other consoles launched in the holiday season, so they already have much time in existence by the time. Switch is not going to go way up after so much time and so many games already. A flat year is more probable than a 20M+ year.

So, yes I voted 18M shipped. A very good number if it becames true. It will allow Switch still being one of the fastest consoles ever.

3DS managed to those numbers in second year with revision in 2nd year and huge price cut in 1st year, and Switch without those things started performing stronger than 3DS in same time period and difference will much bigger how time is passing. Maybe you dont realise, but 3DS had only 2 FY above 13m, and only 3 above 10m, first full FY was 13.5m, 2nd full FY was 14m, and 3rd was 12.2m, while on other hand Switch has 15m in full 1st year and it will have around 17m in its full 2nd year and thats still whithout any revision and price cut compared to 3DS. With all that on mind, Switch sales looks much more stronger, healthier and much more promising than 3DS sales ever were.

Only 1m more in FY 2019. compared to FY 2018. sounds too low because 2019. FY Switch lineup will be much stronger than 2018. FY was, and Switch will have most likely have revision and price cut in FY 2019.

Nope to almost all the 1st paragraph for the reasons i said in my previous post. Switch hardware sales are not "much more stronger, healthier" than 3DS. They are just better, just that, and i really think they are because Switch gmes in its first 2 years were better than 3DS ones, so that brought a lot more people despite Switch being more expensive. 

Switch and 3DS were tied during first FY, Switch is going to have better sales in 2nd and 3rd. But that doesn't mean Switch is going to sell way better in the 3rd than the 2nd. People are trying too hard to convert Switch in DS and Wii, and Switch is not them. It will have a different pace during its lifetime, and my opinion, more similar to 3DS. Just my opinion of course.

And no to the second point too. Sorry Miyamotoo, you know we have already had this same discussion multiple times..... I still don't see this year having "much stronger lineup" than 2018. And even if it has better lineup this year, it doesn't need to translate to more hardware sales either. There are multiple examples in others consoles history where better software didn't translate to better sales (PS4 this year for example), but 3DS was the better one to compare because of how much they sold in 2014 compared to 2013, despite 2014 having better games (Monster Hunter 4, Pokemon X/Y, Luigi's Mansion 3D, Yokai Watch, Donkey Kong Country 3D, ....).



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colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

3DS managed to those numbers in second year with revision in 2nd year and huge price cut in 1st year, and Switch without those things started performing stronger than 3DS in same time period and difference will much bigger how time is passing. Maybe you dont realise, but 3DS had only 2 FY above 13m, and only 3 above 10m, first full FY was 13.5m, 2nd full FY was 14m, and 3rd was 12.2m, while on other hand Switch has 15m in full 1st year and it will have around 17m in its full 2nd year and thats still whithout any revision and price cut compared to 3DS. With all that on mind, Switch sales looks much more stronger, healthier and much more promising than 3DS sales ever were.

Only 1m more in FY 2019. compared to FY 2018. sounds too low because 2019. FY Switch lineup will be much stronger than 2018. FY was, and Switch will have most likely have revision and price cut in FY 2019.

Nope to almost all the 1st paragraph for the reasons i said in my previous post. Switch hardware sales are not "much more stronger, healthier" than 3DS. They are just better, just that, and i really think they are because Switch gmes in its first 2 years were better than 3DS ones, so that brought a lot more people despite Switch being more expensive. 

Switch and 3DS were tied during first FY, Switch is going to have better sales in 2nd and 3rd. But that doesn't mean Switch is going to sell way better in the 3rd than the 2nd. People are trying too hard to convert Switch in DS and Wii, and Switch is not them. It will have a different pace during its lifetime, and my opinion, more similar to 3DS. Just my opinion of course.

 

And no to the second point too. Sorry Miyamotoo, you know we have already had this same discussion multiple times..... I still don't see this year having "much stronger lineup" than 2018. And even if it has better lineup this year, it doesn't need to translate to more hardware sales either. There are multiple examples in others consoles history where better software didn't translate to better sales (PS4 this year for example), but 3DS was the better one to compare because of how much they sold in 2014 compared to 2013, despite 2014 having better games (Monster Hunter 4, Pokemon X/Y, Luigi's Mansion 3D, Yokai Watch, Donkey Kong Country 3D, ....).

You missing point, they are stronger, but with fact they are better without price cut and revision that 3DS had in that time period, conclude they are much healthier/stronger:

-3DS FY 2012. - 13.5m vs Switch FY 2017. - 15m (note 3DS had huge price cut only 6 months after launch)

-3DS FY 2013. - 14m vs Switch FY 2018. -  around 17m (note: 3DS had revision)

-3DS FY 2014. - 12.2m vs Switch FY 2019. - expected somewhere around 20m (with all thing counting, like very strong lineup, price cut and revision)

Talking about games, 3DS also had strong games in its first two full FYs.

 

I agree that Switch will have similar pace to 3DS in sales than to Wii (and buy that I think sales want fail of a cliff like in case of Wii and longer life span like 3DS), with diffrence that Switch will have quite stronger sales per years, and we already have situation where Switch will sell 3m units more in its 2nd full FY than 3DS did, and in 3rd year difference will be even bigger (easily 7m+, because 3DS had 12.2m year in FY 2014),  not to mentioned 4. FY where 3DS sold 8.7m.

But its not point what you think about, but point is about things we do know: just currently confirmed 2019. games: NSMBU DX, Yoshi, Pokemon Gen 8, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion 3, Daemon X Machina, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Town...in same period of last year what we know about 2018. lineup was only Kirby, Mario Tennis, Donkey Kong TF and Hyrule Warriors DE, and thats with early January Direct while we still need to have 1st Direct this year where we will have new announcements in any case. Nintendo published games directly effect on sales, sales proves that, sales in 2018. until September were slower because they were not big new releases, sales explode with Mario Party, Pokemon Lets Go and Smash Bros. Comparing effects of releases on hardware sales of console thats in its 6. year on market and console that yets need to enter its 3. year on market dont make any sense, because buy that time consoles are near and of its life cycle and every console entered in lower sales years compared to previous years in any case.



Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

Nope to almost all the 1st paragraph for the reasons i said in my previous post. Switch hardware sales are not "much more stronger, healthier" than 3DS. They are just better, just that, and i really think they are because Switch gmes in its first 2 years were better than 3DS ones, so that brought a lot more people despite Switch being more expensive. 

Switch and 3DS were tied during first FY, Switch is going to have better sales in 2nd and 3rd. But that doesn't mean Switch is going to sell way better in the 3rd than the 2nd. People are trying too hard to convert Switch in DS and Wii, and Switch is not them. It will have a different pace during its lifetime, and my opinion, more similar to 3DS. Just my opinion of course.

 

And no to the second point too. Sorry Miyamotoo, you know we have already had this same discussion multiple times..... I still don't see this year having "much stronger lineup" than 2018. And even if it has better lineup this year, it doesn't need to translate to more hardware sales either. There are multiple examples in others consoles history where better software didn't translate to better sales (PS4 this year for example), but 3DS was the better one to compare because of how much they sold in 2014 compared to 2013, despite 2014 having better games (Monster Hunter 4, Pokemon X/Y, Luigi's Mansion 3D, Yokai Watch, Donkey Kong Country 3D, ....).

You missing point, they are stronger, but with fact they are better without price cut and revision that 3DS had in that time period, conclude they are much healthier/stronger:

-3DS FY 2012. - 13.5m vs Switch FY 2017. - 15m (note 3DS had huge price cut only 6 months after launch)

-3DS FY 2013. - 14m vs Switch FY 2018. -  around 17m (note: 3DS had revision)

-3DS FY 2014. - 12.2m vs Switch FY 2019. - expected somewhere around 20m (with all thing counting, like very strong lineup, price cut and revision)

Talking about games, 3DS also had strong games in its first two full FYs.

 

I agree that Switch will have similar pace to 3DS in sales than to Wii (and buy that I think sales want fail of a cliff like in case of Wii and longer life span like 3DS), with diffrence that Switch will have quite stronger sales per years, and we already have situation where Switch will sell 3m units more in its 2nd full FY than 3DS did, and in 3rd year difference will be even bigger (easily 7m+, because 3DS had 12.2m year in FY 2014),  not to mentioned 4. FY where 3DS sold 8.7m.

But its not point what you think about, but point is about things we do know: just currently confirmed 2019. games: NSMBU DX, Yoshi, Pokemon Gen 8, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion 3, Daemon X Machina, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Town...in same period of last year what we know about 2018. lineup was only Kirby, Mario Tennis, Donkey Kong TF and Hyrule Warriors DE, and thats with early January Direct while we still need to have 1st Direct this year where we will have new announcements in any case. Nintendo published games directly effect on sales, sales proves that, sales in 2018. until September were slower because they were not big new releases, sales explode with Mario Party, Pokemon Lets Go and Smash Bros. Comparing effects of releases on hardware sales of console thats in its 6. year on market and console that yets need to enter its 3. year on market dont make any sense, because buy that time consoles are near and of its life cycle and every console entered in lower sales years compared to previous years in any case.

That's why if 3DS ends around 78-79M sold lifetime, i expect Switch around 85-90M by the end too. Switch is going to take the advantage this years, but like 3DS after 3rd year, is going to drop a lot, for Switch it will be 2020, and in 2021 probably will be a below 10M console per year console by then.

I think i already said how much i expect Switch doing

29'5 at the end of 2018

17M in 2019 -> 46'5M LT

12M in 2020 -> 58'5M LT

9M in 2021  ->  67'5M LT

7'5M in 2022 -> 75'0M LT

7M in 2023  ->  82'0M  LT

and from there a few million more until stops around 87-88M.

That's a very specific and very difficult prediction to make, so i will be most probably wrong, but it's the pace i'm expecting. I know this crashes with every Nintendo fan here expecting Switch to sell more than 100M but this is my honest prediction, and it's based in the same reasons that made me believe 9-10M were going to be shipped in Q3 and the same reasons i was sure Switch was not going to reach 20M this FY.

Software sales, is different. I think the people expecting every IP from Nintendo selling the best ever on Switch are going to be right in the end. I said months ago i expected Smash Bros ending around 16-17M, but now is very probable it could surpass that, although i still think selling 5-6M more after such a huge launch is still a difficult task. 



colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

You missing point, they are stronger, but with fact they are better without price cut and revision that 3DS had in that time period, conclude they are much healthier/stronger:

-3DS FY 2012. - 13.5m vs Switch FY 2017. - 15m (note 3DS had huge price cut only 6 months after launch)

-3DS FY 2013. - 14m vs Switch FY 2018. -  around 17m (note: 3DS had revision)

-3DS FY 2014. - 12.2m vs Switch FY 2019. - expected somewhere around 20m (with all thing counting, like very strong lineup, price cut and revision)

Talking about games, 3DS also had strong games in its first two full FYs.

 

I agree that Switch will have similar pace to 3DS in sales than to Wii (and buy that I think sales want fail of a cliff like in case of Wii and longer life span like 3DS), with diffrence that Switch will have quite stronger sales per years, and we already have situation where Switch will sell 3m units more in its 2nd full FY than 3DS did, and in 3rd year difference will be even bigger (easily 7m+, because 3DS had 12.2m year in FY 2014),  not to mentioned 4. FY where 3DS sold 8.7m.

But its not point what you think about, but point is about things we do know: just currently confirmed 2019. games: NSMBU DX, Yoshi, Pokemon Gen 8, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, Luigi's Mansion 3, Daemon X Machina, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3, Town...in same period of last year what we know about 2018. lineup was only Kirby, Mario Tennis, Donkey Kong TF and Hyrule Warriors DE, and thats with early January Direct while we still need to have 1st Direct this year where we will have new announcements in any case. Nintendo published games directly effect on sales, sales proves that, sales in 2018. until September were slower because they were not big new releases, sales explode with Mario Party, Pokemon Lets Go and Smash Bros. Comparing effects of releases on hardware sales of console thats in its 6. year on market and console that yets need to enter its 3. year on market dont make any sense, because buy that time consoles are near and of its life cycle and every console entered in lower sales years compared to previous years in any case.

That's why if 3DS ends around 78-79M sold lifetime, i expect Switch around 85-90M by the end too. Switch is going to take the advantage this years, but like 3DS after 3rd year, is going to drop a lot, for Switch it will be 2020, and in 2021 probably will be a below 10M console per year console by then.

I think i already said how much i expect Switch doing

29'5 at the end of 2018

17M in 2019 -> 46'5M LT

12M in 2020 -> 58'5M LT

9M in 2021  ->  67'5M LT

7'5M in 2022 -> 75'0M LT

7M in 2023  ->  82'0M  LT

and from there a few million more until stops around 87-88M.

That's a very specific and very difficult prediction to make, so i will be most probably wrong, but it's the pace i'm expecting. I know this crashes with every Nintendo fan here expecting Switch to sell more than 100M but this is my honest prediction, and it's based in the same reasons that made me believe 9-10M were going to be shipped in Q3 and the same reasons i was sure Switch was not going to reach 20M this FY.

Software sales, is different. I think the people expecting every IP from Nintendo selling the best ever on Switch are going to be right in the end. I said months ago i expected Smash Bros ending around 16-17M, but now is very probable it could surpass that, although i still think selling 5-6M more after such a huge launch is still a difficult task. 

When you make disccusion and comparing numbers pls stick to shipped numbers, because we getting oficcall shipped numbers from Nintendo, and we also have shipped numbers from 3DS, its much harder to track sold numbers, so stick to facts, at end of 2018. Switch is at 32.3m.

 

My prediction would be something like this:

-Launch: 2.7m

-2017. FY: 15m

-2018. FY: 17m

-2019. FY: 20m

-2020. FY: 17m

-2021. FY: 13m

-2022. FY: 9m

-2023. FY: 6m

-2024. FY: 3m

So Switch can easily hit 100m, but even if it dont hit 100m it will easily pass 90m LT.

 

Compared to 3DS:

-Launch - 3.6m

-2011. FY: 13.6m

-2012. FY: 14m

-2013. FY: 12.2m

-2014. FY: 8.7m

-2015. FY: 6.8m

-2016. FY: 7.3m

-2017. FY: 6.4m

-2018. FY: 3m

 

What you fail to see (or ignoring) is that 3DS peaked very early in its 1st and 2nd year because it had very early huge price cut and 1st revision, while on other hand Switch has already now much bigger apealing and popularity on market than 3DS ever had and thats why first 2 FYs for Switch is better than best 2 3DS years, before even Nintendo start aggressively pushing Switch with price cuts, revisions, bundles and deals. Also, onother huge diffrence compared not just to 3DS but to any previous Nintendo platform is that Switch is Nintendo unified platform and only Nintendo platform moving forward, that doesn't mean only all Nintendo IPs on one platform, but generally full Nintendo support in any case (so we taking about games, push, marketing, planing...) just for one platform instead divided to 2 different platforms like before.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 03 February 2019

Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

That's why if 3DS ends around 78-79M sold lifetime, i expect Switch around 85-90M by the end too. Switch is going to take the advantage this years, but like 3DS after 3rd year, is going to drop a lot, for Switch it will be 2020, and in 2021 probably will be a below 10M console per year console by then.

I think i already said how much i expect Switch doing

29'5 at the end of 2018

17M in 2019 -> 46'5M LT

12M in 2020 -> 58'5M LT

9M in 2021  ->  67'5M LT

7'5M in 2022 -> 75'0M LT

7M in 2023  ->  82'0M  LT

and from there a few million more until stops around 87-88M.

That's a very specific and very difficult prediction to make, so i will be most probably wrong, but it's the pace i'm expecting. I know this crashes with every Nintendo fan here expecting Switch to sell more than 100M but this is my honest prediction, and it's based in the same reasons that made me believe 9-10M were going to be shipped in Q3 and the same reasons i was sure Switch was not going to reach 20M this FY.

Software sales, is different. I think the people expecting every IP from Nintendo selling the best ever on Switch are going to be right in the end. I said months ago i expected Smash Bros ending around 16-17M, but now is very probable it could surpass that, although i still think selling 5-6M more after such a huge launch is still a difficult task. 

I cant comment your prediction for sales because you didnt said why you expect those numbers, but when you make disccusion and comparing numbers pls stick to shipped numbers, because we getting oficcall shipped numbers from Nintendo, and we also have shipped numbers from 3DS, its much harder to track sold numbers, so stick to facts, at end of 2018. Switch is at 32.3m.

I already explained multiple times why is my reasoning for this year, for the next ones there's no possible way to explain them. 

As for the numbers, fair point. 

Shipped by fiscal year:

FY 2019  18M

FY 2020  11M

FY 2021  10M

FY 2022   7M

FY 2023   5M

So around 85M shipped by March 2024.

Last edited by colafitte - on 03 February 2019

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colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

I cant comment your prediction for sales because you didnt said why you expect those numbers, but when you make disccusion and comparing numbers pls stick to shipped numbers, because we getting oficcall shipped numbers from Nintendo, and we also have shipped numbers from 3DS, its much harder to track sold numbers, so stick to facts, at end of 2018. Switch is at 32.3m.

I already explained multiple times why is my reasoning for this year, for the next ones there's no possible way to explain them. 

As for the numbers, fair point. 

Shipped by fiscal year:

FY 2019  18M

FY 2020  11M

FY 2021  10M

FY 2022   7M

FY 2023   5M

So around 85M shipped by March 2024.

I change quite a bit my post, so if you can reply to my changed post. Also, thats huge drop from 18m to 11m, I dont see thats kind of drop is possible in 4. year on market for Switch. Only around 10m more than 3DS sound to little for Switch.



Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

I already explained multiple times why is my reasoning for this year, for the next ones there's no possible way to explain them. 

As for the numbers, fair point. 

Shipped by fiscal year:

FY 2019  18M

FY 2020  11M

FY 2021  10M

FY 2022   7M

FY 2023   5M

So around 85M shipped by March 2024.

I change quite a bit my post, so if you can reply to my changed post. Also, thats huge drop from 18m to 11m, I dont see thats kind of drop is possible in 4. year on market for Switch. Only around 10m more than 3DS sound to little for Switch.

Your 2019 and 2020 FY are very optimistic for my tastes. There's where our main differences come between us. 

And yes, I expect a huge drop in shipments in FY 2020. By 2020-2021 I expect Switch saturation mixed by next gen hype absorbing all the attention by the people who buys switch only as a home console. Remember that sales and shipments doesn't work the same so that's why expect some differences between sales and shipments with more sales than shipments in some years. 

Maybe in 2020 I was too low, maybe 12M instead of 11M and 9M instead of 10M in 2021 would be better. 



They overshipped this last year right? compaired to sales.
So.... Im guessing it ll be around 18m? or so for 2019.



I voted 25m, because I know they can beat that this year.  Don't know what they will forecast though.  They might be more conservative and only forecast 22m or some smaller number like that.  Regardless of what they forecast, they are going to beat it.  This coming fiscal year, Switch sales will only be limited by whatever Nintendo can produce.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 03 February 2019

colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

I cant comment your prediction for sales because you didnt said why you expect those numbers, but when you make disccusion and comparing numbers pls stick to shipped numbers, because we getting oficcall shipped numbers from Nintendo, and we also have shipped numbers from 3DS, its much harder to track sold numbers, so stick to facts, at end of 2018. Switch is at 32.3m.

I already explained multiple times why is my reasoning for this year, for the next ones there's no possible way to explain them. 

As for the numbers, fair point. 

Shipped by fiscal year:

FY 2019  18M

FY 2020  11M

FY 2021  10M

FY 2022   7M

FY 2023   5M

So around 85M shipped by March 2024.

It's going to go from a 40% drop in FY20 to a 10% drop in FY21? That's an odd sales curve.



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