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Forums - Sales Discussion - How many will be Nintendo's forecast for FY2019 ?


Switch shipment forecast for FY2019 ?

below 17 5 5.10%
17 8 8.16%
18 18 18.37%
19 9 9.18%
20 34 34.69%
21 6 6.12%
22 6 6.12%
23 4 4.08%
24 1 1.02%
25 or more 7 7.14%

I think 19 million will be a safe bet too.
I'm expecting holiday 2019 to essentially be flat, or just slightly down with just Pokemon Gen 8. But I expect Animal Crossing to come out in late June or July and just about single handedly raise the Switch's baseline well above what it was from July to October 2018. If we get a new SKU/model or price cut that makes the Switch more affordable for handheld gamers, then I think it's an even safer bet.

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This year is a pivital one and it will be way too hard to predict.
It depends on a new model, price cut, pokemon, animal crossing and their new game that "will make everyone happy" which i think could be the starfox gp thing.

We know we will see Animal Crossing and Pokemon this year. Possibly Mario Maker and a ton of 3rd party surprises. But the biggest element that will pull all of this Switch handheld potential together will be the Switch mini and its different color models bringing in a cheaper cost while appealing to multi system households, kids, girls, and artistic personalities. I expect more than 25 million if Nintendo markets and plays their cards correctly. If not, 20 million.

20mil again

Pocky Lover Boy! 

Amnesia said:
Dulfite said:

Depends on when Pokemon and Animal Crossing launch. If late, probably close to 17, if both in the next couple months then 25 may be too small a number...


Especially if they launch cheaper more portable switch same time.

Could the main Pokemon alone in begining of Decembre 2019 produce more sales than Smash + the 2 Pokemon remake + Mario Party ?

Hardware sales? Yes. And especially with Animal Crossing, which does Pokemon level sales based on the last main entry, New Leaf. But again, I more think they will if they release early in the year, not December. Otherwise, it will be 2020 that has the megaton year.

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Well, I think we should all know by now that they like to aim high.  So I think they will go for 20m again.

BUT that will depend on if the rumors about a cheaper, handheld only model coming out this year are true.  In which case I expect them to aim for 25m.

Well, I think they are going to stick with a more realistic goal, given that the announcement of dropping this year's FY goal by a whopping 3M led to a drop in stock price. So, they will probably go with their original 20M, but given that this will likely be a peak year, with a Pokemon game and probably a small price cut, they should be able to hit it.

If 200$ switch mini, I'd say they go being 20M. Like 23+.
Otherwise, 18.

I think it's possible. Animal Crossing can attract an audience very few franchises in gaming could: women, especially in Japan. Animal Crossing as a franchise appears to have struck a cord with women and if the cards are played right and the game delivers quality-wise, I think we will get another great Animal Crossing hit.

Pokemon Gen 8 will be interesting as it will be a new generation on a home console. Pokemon Let's Go has been able to succeed as a remake of Pokemon Yellow with Pokemon Go elements. Now we will see how a new generation of Pokemon will fare as the developers will focus on the handheld aspects of Pokemon through this upcoming game(s).

As for a price cut, I think the Switch can make it without a price cut...As long as the potential Switch mini hits the mark and allows families to buy more Switch units for the household. I wonder if Nintendo will prioritize more on profiting on the Switch as much as they can or attract new consumers with a price cut...?

They’ll go with 20 again.