colafitte said:
Your 2019 and 2020 FY are very optimistic for my tastes. There's where our main differences come between us. And yes, I expect a huge drop in shipments in FY 2020. By 2020-2021 I expect Switch saturation mixed by next gen hype absorbing all the attention by the people who buys switch only as a home console. Remember that sales and shipments doesn't work the same so that's why expect some differences between sales and shipments with more sales than shipments in some years. Maybe in 2020 I was too low, maybe 12M instead of 11M and 9M instead of 10M in 2021 would be better. |
I gave you very clear points why 2019. can be around 20m, also that fall from 2019. to 2020. is really huge in any case. But yes, you definitely have pessimistic view for my taste. :)
Next gen will have atentione on lauch, but Switch will still have own market despite next gen consoles, biggest strenght of Switch will be peserved in any case, and thats hybrid concept (handheld play) and Nintendo Switch exclusive that are very popular, not to mentione that buy time PS5/XB2 arives with its price points of $400+, Switch will have around $200 price point with already built very strong lineup of games. Shipments and sales are same at end, if you look Nintendo numbers for every platform, they are all shipped, that goes for Switch, 3DS, Wii U, Wii, DS..
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/index.html
Even 12m going from 18m in one year is huge drop for 4. FY on market, that kind of drop (33%) not even Wii had in same period, that kind of drops are usualy at end of console lifes. 3DS had that kind of drop in its 4. FY on market because 3DS had very early in life huge price cuts and revisons, and later those things couldn't effect too much on sales, thats not case with Switch, Switch is entering its 3. year on market without price cut and revision, even without bundle with one game for launch price point.
Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 04 February 2019
