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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Switch is selling better than PS4, PS2, PS1, PS3, X360 launch aligned

AngryLittleAlchemist said:
potato_hamster said:

Because as you said "A fraction of a percent of all games are system sellers regardless of platform." And the fraction of a percent that are system seller, how important are they? I'll give you a hint: go figure out what percentage of total software sales are made up by the 20 best selling titles on Switch.

Because games that actually move systems are a critical part of a platforms long-term success. Since Nintendo has more or less released the vast majority of its system sellers, it's going to need to keep its momentum going somehow. The most logical place for this is a constant and steady stream of games that make people want to go out and buy your console, and it it can't come from you, it has to come from third parties - that are busy making safe ports that get mostly get mediocre sales. I don't see why that can't be seen as a issue with the Switch going forward. If sales are going to start plateauing, third party support may turn out to be a big reason why.

Ok so what do you think the Switch's lifetime sales will be?

I don't know. I'm not saying the Switch's sales will slow down soon, just that they might. My gut tells me at this point it'll be somewhere between the 3DS and the Wii, which would be a fantastic achievement for Nintendo.

Last edited by potato_hamster - on 05 February 2019

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Miyamotoo said:
potato_hamster said:

I was talking about the meaningful third party support. Do you realize how many hundreds of third party games the Wii had made for it that was called "shovelware"? The Wii had poor third party support despite all that shovelware. So for all practical purposes its about quantity of quality titles. That's what I'm focusing on. It doesn't matter if the Switch has two dozen first party games coming out every month it doesn't actually make the platform more attractive to the average prospective buyer in a meaningful way.

You still don't seem to get that Dask Souls and Diablo 3 are two third party games in two years that you keep bringing up as "great system selling games" when the fans of those games have been able to play those games on multiple platforms, multiple times for years and years, because again, they're are ports of games that are several years old. Look I get that as a Nintendo fan, if you do the vast majority of your gaming on a Nintendo platform,  this might be a bigger deal to you because you haven't actually had the opportunity to play these games before.  But you need to understand that Nintendo fans that only game on Nintendo hardware are the only people that haven't had access to these games for years. SO again, the fact that you bring these titles ups is indication that third party support on the Switch actually isn't all that good. Last's years third party support was poor at best. This years third party support from announced titles is still poor but slightly less poor. Let me put it to you this way - going from a 30% grade in course to a 40% is an improvement, but it's still a failing grade.

See that's the difference between me and you. You're holding Nintendo to a different standard. It has solid third party support "for Nintendo", but for any other platform, it would widely be considered poor. The vita is a prime example of this - it's third party support is actually kinda similar to the Switch, yet it was vastly panned as having little meaningful third party support, as most of it's third party titles catered to niche audiences that weren't expected to sell that high. Yet, here you are giving Nintendo a free pass, and pretending that because the Switch is getting better third party support than Nintendo systems have for years, it's going to lead to more Switch sales, when in actual fact the gap is still so large that the Switch's third party support is still a factor attracting people to platforms other than the Switch. It's simply not good enough if Nintendo wants to keep its sales momentum while it's first party studios work on their next batch of titles, and to be frank, it's not even really close to being enough.

I dont see how Wii has anything with this? Games I mentioned are not shovelware at all. Games that I mentioned are quality titles. More games makes platform more attractive in any case, that espacily goes when we talk about good and quality titles (even if they are old ports), not to mentioned Nintendo and exclusive Switch games.

Pls stop moving goal posts, you also keep saying things that I never said, stop doing that if you want to have normal discusion, I never said even nearly anything similar like "great system selling games" for any game that I mentioned. I said that for some people games that I mentioned because full handheld mode are big deal, and those are kind of people that had some interest in Switch and some of those games can push them to buy Switch, same like this "Offcourse that not single 3rd party game can move consoles like biggest Nintendo IPs can, but point is that Switch is getting some great and diverse 3rd party games (despite good part of them are old ports), and that Switch 3rd party support is incrasing in any case". You have problem realising that some people because full handheld mode can be intrested about some 3rd party games even they played them before, also dont act that every person played every older game in any case. Real word is "better" than last year, not little less poor, lol.

Reality is that no one ever said that Switch (or any other Ninetndo platform) can or have same 3rd party support like other platforms, so its pointles to compare that support with PS4/XB1, and thats why people more comparing 3rd party support with past Nintendo systems. So its not point about free pass at all, when someone say that Switch has good 3rd party support for Nintendo system. Fact is that when Switch or any other platform has more games and more diverse games (yes, that counts old ports and Indies, not just AAA current gen games), means lineup of that platform is more apealing and that lead to more desairible product and better sales. I wouldnt be woried about Switch momentum on your place, Switch in 2018. sold more than it did in 2017. and in 2019. will sell more than it did in 2018.

The more we speak the more I'm convinced that your biggest problem is your reading comprehension or your understanding of English. You missed all of my points entirely  even though they were very clearly laid out for you, and then you accused me of "moving the goalposts, and arguing against points you never made" by literally making the same point I've been making over and over in different ways to try and get through to you, and then you argue against points I never made.

This is pointless to continue, so I won't.



zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

Because as you said "A fraction of a percent of all games are system sellers regardless of platform." And the fraction of a percent that are system seller, how important are they? I'll give you a hint: go figure out what percentage of total software sales are made up by the 20 best selling titles on Switch.

Because games that actually move systems are a critical part of a platforms long-term success. Since Nintendo has more or less released the vast majority of its system sellers, it's going to need to keep its momentum going somehow. The most logical place for this is a constant and steady stream of games that make people want to go out and buy your console, and it it can't come from you, it has to come from third parties - that are busy making safe ports that get mostly get mediocre sales. I don't see why that can't be seen as a issue with the Switch going forward. If sales are going to start plateauing, third party support may turn out to be a big reason why.

You were talking about 3rd party support being bad so I dont see how "Nintendo games sell alot" is really relevant.

Everytime a new major Nintendo IP releases we have people saying Nintendo has released all their system sellers.

It happened after launch when people were saying Switch sales would drop because all the hardcore Nintendo fans got one for Zelda. Then it happened again after the holidays when people said that all the Nintendo fans got a Switch in 2017 for Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon & Mario Odyssey. It's happening again now that Pokemon Let's Go and Smash have released and it will happen this time next year after Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion & a new gen Pokemon release.

And the thing so many people ignore is the strength of evergreens. Those big games from 2017 were moving consoles in 2018 and the big 2017/2018 games will be moving consoles in 2019. Evergreens and a steady stream of small-medium games can keep sales strong even when there is a drought of major system sellers.

A prime example of this is Q1-Q3 of last year when  Switch sold 7.25 million with the biggest new release selling like 2 million.

Then there is always price cuts and revisions that can and will keep momentum going.

And like you said, many 3rd parties have just been safe late ports but this year we are beginning to see more day and date titles and exclusives so I dont see how 3rd party support can in anyway be seen as getting worse. 

I'm talking about system selling games being relevant. The fact that on Nintendo platform they're almost exclusively Nintendo games doesn't negate the important of them. If you want to act like it's a foregone conclusion that this years first party games - that is, Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, etc. are going to sell systems like the likes of Mario Kart, Mario Odyssey, Zelda, Smash Bros, Pokemon etc, then please by all means, you're welcome to think that, but you can't exactly blame anyone for seeing that lineup as not the kind of games that going to keep that momentum going.

But that's the thing. Here in 2019. All of those "evergreen" games cost just as much as they did on release, and so does the Switch. There's no real difference to a prospective buyer buying a switch in Fall 2018 than most prospective buyer in Fall 2019 at this point. The prices probably won't be any different, and the games library in terms of those "system sellers" that you don't like hearing will be pretty much the same. It's not like there's been a shortage of Switches. It's not like there's millions of people that are thinking "I'l buy a Switch when Luigi's mansion comes out". It's not the same. And frankly, history doesn't exactly bear out that "evergreen titles" keep selling systems. Evergreen games keep getting bought as most systems are sold, sure, but for example, hardware sales peaked for the Wii after the first three years of it's life, hardware sales basically never peaked for Wii U. How come these "evergreen titles" didn't seem to keep pushing sales at the midway points in those consoles lives? Is there any evidence that a title like Breath of the Wild is still the tipping point that convinces people to buy a Switch in 2018 or 2019? And your evidence of that is using a console that isn't 2 years old? What makes you think those games are going to have the same effect this year or next year? I have no doubt those games will keep selling as millions more buy Switches, but that doesn't mean those switches are being bought in large part because of those games.

As for price cuts, the Wii saw it's first price cut five years after release, the Wii U pretty much never saw one. That just seems unlikely to me to expect the Switch to have one so soon.

What kind of day and date titles are we seeing? From what I can see, there doesn't seem to be anything of note. And I don't think I said it was getting worse, I think I said its going to get worse - and it almost undoubtedly will when the PS5 and Xbox One Two are released. Ports will be even harder to make. That's an objective fact.



I wonder what the switch is doing compared to handhelds like DS, 3DS, PSP, Gameboy Advance when launch aligned.



potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

You were talking about 3rd party support being bad so I dont see how "Nintendo games sell alot" is really relevant.

Everytime a new major Nintendo IP releases we have people saying Nintendo has released all their system sellers.

It happened after launch when people were saying Switch sales would drop because all the hardcore Nintendo fans got one for Zelda. Then it happened again after the holidays when people said that all the Nintendo fans got a Switch in 2017 for Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon & Mario Odyssey. It's happening again now that Pokemon Let's Go and Smash have released and it will happen this time next year after Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion & a new gen Pokemon release.

And the thing so many people ignore is the strength of evergreens. Those big games from 2017 were moving consoles in 2018 and the big 2017/2018 games will be moving consoles in 2019. Evergreens and a steady stream of small-medium games can keep sales strong even when there is a drought of major system sellers.

A prime example of this is Q1-Q3 of last year when  Switch sold 7.25 million with the biggest new release selling like 2 million.

Then there is always price cuts and revisions that can and will keep momentum going.

And like you said, many 3rd parties have just been safe late ports but this year we are beginning to see more day and date titles and exclusives so I dont see how 3rd party support can in anyway be seen as getting worse. 

I'm talking about system selling games being relevant. The fact that on Nintendo platform they're almost exclusively Nintendo games doesn't negate the important of them. If you want to act like it's a foregone conclusion that this years first party games - that is, Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, etc. are going to sell systems like the likes of Mario Kart, Mario Odyssey, Zelda, Smash Bros, Pokemon etc, then please by all means, you're welcome to think that, but you can't exactly blame anyone for seeing that lineup as not the kind of games that going to keep that momentum going.

But that's the thing. Here in 2019. All of those "evergreen" games cost just as much as they did on release, and so does the Switch. There's no real difference to a prospective buyer buying a switch in Fall 2018 than most prospective buyer in Fall 2019 at this point. The prices probably won't be any different, and the games library in terms of those "system sellers" that you don't like hearing will be pretty much the same. It's not like there's been a shortage of Switches. It's not like there's millions of people that are thinking "I'l buy a Switch when Luigi's mansion comes out". It's not the same. And frankly, history doesn't exactly bear out that "evergreen titles" keep selling systems. Evergreen games keep getting bought as most systems are sold, sure, but for example, hardware sales peaked for the Wii after the first three years of it's life, hardware sales basically never peaked for Wii U. How come these "evergreen titles" didn't seem to keep pushing sales at the midway points in those consoles lives? Is there any evidence that a title like Breath of the Wild is still the tipping point that convinces people to buy a Switch in 2018 or 2019? And your evidence of that is using a console that isn't 2 years old? What makes you think those games are going to have the same effect this year or next year? I have no doubt those games will keep selling as millions more buy Switches, but that doesn't mean those switches are being bought in large part because of those games.

As for price cuts, the Wii saw it's first price cut five years after release, the Wii U pretty much never saw one. That just seems unlikely to me to expect the Switch to have one so soon.

What kind of day and date titles are we seeing? From what I can see, there doesn't seem to be anything of note. And I don't think I said it was getting worse, I think I said its going to get worse - and it almost undoubtedly will when the PS5 and Xbox One Two are released. Ports will be even harder to make. That's an objective fact.

The combination of Luigi's Mansion, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing & Pokemon Gen 8 along with smaller titles, 2017/2018 evergreens and a potential price cut/revision and bundles will likely cause sales to increase this year.

Japan especially has room to grow alot this year. Animal Crossing sold over 5 million on DS & 3DS, Pokemon Let's Go was not as well received as in the west (it sold like a new gen in the west but did well under half of a new gen in Japan) and it has Yokai Watch and Dragon Quest as potential million sellers in that region.

I'm aware that not many will go out and buy a Switch for Luigi's Mansion specifically but that's my point, most people buy a system for a multitude of reasons, not for a single title.

Wii released in Nov 2006 and had a price cut in Sept 2009 then another one in May 2011 then another one in Oct 2012 then another one in Nov 2013. I have no idea where you are coming up with 5 years for the first price cut.

As for Wii U, it's pretty obvious they never cut its price because it was bleeding money for them and they didnt think a price cut was going to increase sales enough to offset further losses.

 

A few day and date titles announced are Mortal Kombat, Crash Team Racing & Doom Eternal.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
potato_hamster said:

I'm talking about system selling games being relevant. The fact that on Nintendo platform they're almost exclusively Nintendo games doesn't negate the important of them. If you want to act like it's a foregone conclusion that this years first party games - that is, Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, etc. are going to sell systems like the likes of Mario Kart, Mario Odyssey, Zelda, Smash Bros, Pokemon etc, then please by all means, you're welcome to think that, but you can't exactly blame anyone for seeing that lineup as not the kind of games that going to keep that momentum going.

But that's the thing. Here in 2019. All of those "evergreen" games cost just as much as they did on release, and so does the Switch. There's no real difference to a prospective buyer buying a switch in Fall 2018 than most prospective buyer in Fall 2019 at this point. The prices probably won't be any different, and the games library in terms of those "system sellers" that you don't like hearing will be pretty much the same. It's not like there's been a shortage of Switches. It's not like there's millions of people that are thinking "I'l buy a Switch when Luigi's mansion comes out". It's not the same. And frankly, history doesn't exactly bear out that "evergreen titles" keep selling systems. Evergreen games keep getting bought as most systems are sold, sure, but for example, hardware sales peaked for the Wii after the first three years of it's life, hardware sales basically never peaked for Wii U. How come these "evergreen titles" didn't seem to keep pushing sales at the midway points in those consoles lives? Is there any evidence that a title like Breath of the Wild is still the tipping point that convinces people to buy a Switch in 2018 or 2019? And your evidence of that is using a console that isn't 2 years old? What makes you think those games are going to have the same effect this year or next year? I have no doubt those games will keep selling as millions more buy Switches, but that doesn't mean those switches are being bought in large part because of those games.

As for price cuts, the Wii saw it's first price cut five years after release, the Wii U pretty much never saw one. That just seems unlikely to me to expect the Switch to have one so soon.

What kind of day and date titles are we seeing? From what I can see, there doesn't seem to be anything of note. And I don't think I said it was getting worse, I think I said its going to get worse - and it almost undoubtedly will when the PS5 and Xbox One Two are released. Ports will be even harder to make. That's an objective fact.

The combination of Luigi's Mansion, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing & Pokemon Gen 8 along with smaller titles, 2017/2018 evergreens and a potential price cut/revision and bundles will likely cause sales to increase this year.

Japan especially has room to grow alot this year. Animal Crossing sold over 5 million on DS & 3DS, Pokemon Let's Go was not as well received as in the west (it sold like a new gen in the west but did well under half of a new gen in Japan) and it has Yokai Watch and Dragon Quest as potential million sellers in that region.

I'm aware that not many will go out and buy a Switch for Luigi's Mansion specifically but that's my point, most people buy a system for a multitude of reasons, not for a single title.

Wii released in Nov 2006 and had a price cut in Sept 2009 then another one in May 2011 then another one in Oct 2012 then another one in Nov 2013. I have no idea where you are coming up with 5 years for the first price cut.

As for Wii U, it's pretty obvious they never cut its price because it was bleeding money for them and they didnt think a price cut was going to increase sales enough to offset further losses.

 

A few day and date titles announced are Mortal Kombat, Crash Team Racing & Doom Eternal.

The first official price cut for the Wii was on May 15th 2011.

https://www.engadget.com/2011/05/04/nintendo-drops-wii-price-to-150-from-may-15th-throws-in-a-free/

They had it on sale before that, but that's the first time it's MSRP was changed from $199 on release to $149.



potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

The combination of Luigi's Mansion, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing & Pokemon Gen 8 along with smaller titles, 2017/2018 evergreens and a potential price cut/revision and bundles will likely cause sales to increase this year.

Japan especially has room to grow alot this year. Animal Crossing sold over 5 million on DS & 3DS, Pokemon Let's Go was not as well received as in the west (it sold like a new gen in the west but did well under half of a new gen in Japan) and it has Yokai Watch and Dragon Quest as potential million sellers in that region.

I'm aware that not many will go out and buy a Switch for Luigi's Mansion specifically but that's my point, most people buy a system for a multitude of reasons, not for a single title.

Wii released in Nov 2006 and had a price cut in Sept 2009 then another one in May 2011 then another one in Oct 2012 then another one in Nov 2013. I have no idea where you are coming up with 5 years for the first price cut.

As for Wii U, it's pretty obvious they never cut its price because it was bleeding money for them and they didnt think a price cut was going to increase sales enough to offset further losses.

 

A few day and date titles announced are Mortal Kombat, Crash Team Racing & Doom Eternal.

The first official price cut for the Wii was on May 15th 2011.

https://www.engadget.com/2011/05/04/nintendo-drops-wii-price-to-150-from-may-15th-throws-in-a-free/

They had it on sale before that, but that's the first time it's MSRP was changed from $199 on release to $149.

The Wii was launched at 250$, what you’re referring to is the second price cut that Zorg mentioned.



potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

The combination of Luigi's Mansion, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing & Pokemon Gen 8 along with smaller titles, 2017/2018 evergreens and a potential price cut/revision and bundles will likely cause sales to increase this year.

Japan especially has room to grow alot this year. Animal Crossing sold over 5 million on DS & 3DS, Pokemon Let's Go was not as well received as in the west (it sold like a new gen in the west but did well under half of a new gen in Japan) and it has Yokai Watch and Dragon Quest as potential million sellers in that region.

I'm aware that not many will go out and buy a Switch for Luigi's Mansion specifically but that's my point, most people buy a system for a multitude of reasons, not for a single title.

Wii released in Nov 2006 and had a price cut in Sept 2009 then another one in May 2011 then another one in Oct 2012 then another one in Nov 2013. I have no idea where you are coming up with 5 years for the first price cut.

As for Wii U, it's pretty obvious they never cut its price because it was bleeding money for them and they didnt think a price cut was going to increase sales enough to offset further losses.

 

A few day and date titles announced are Mortal Kombat, Crash Team Racing & Doom Eternal.

The first official price cut for the Wii was on May 15th 2011.

https://www.engadget.com/2011/05/04/nintendo-drops-wii-price-to-150-from-may-15th-throws-in-a-free/

They had it on sale before that, but that's the first time it's MSRP was changed from $199 on release to $149.

https://www.ign.com/articles/2006/09/14/us-wii-price-launch-date-revealed

https://www.shacknews.com/article/43853/wii-249-on-november-19

https://www.cnet.com/news/nintendo-drops-wii-price-to-199/

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wii-joins-xbox-ps3-drops-console-price-199/story?id=8657422

https://www.engadget.com/2009/09/22/wii-price-drop-confirmed-199-starting-this-weekend/

It's important to do the research before posting.



abronn627 said:
potato_hamster said:

The first official price cut for the Wii was on May 15th 2011.

https://www.engadget.com/2011/05/04/nintendo-drops-wii-price-to-150-from-may-15th-throws-in-a-free/

They had it on sale before that, but that's the first time it's MSRP was changed from $199 on release to $149.

The Wii was launched at 250$, what you’re referring to is the second price cut that Zorg mentioned.

The wii was launched with two different skus, the most common one was $249, but they also sold one, at launch, for $199. So when they made their most expensive model $199, that wasn't a price drop, they just added value to the $199 launch price.

EDIT: I'm completely wrong. Zorg is right again. My bad.

Last edited by potato_hamster - on 05 February 2019

potato_hamster said:
zorg1000 said:

The combination of Luigi's Mansion, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing & Pokemon Gen 8 along with smaller titles, 2017/2018 evergreens and a potential price cut/revision and bundles will likely cause sales to increase this year.

Japan especially has room to grow alot this year. Animal Crossing sold over 5 million on DS & 3DS, Pokemon Let's Go was not as well received as in the west (it sold like a new gen in the west but did well under half of a new gen in Japan) and it has Yokai Watch and Dragon Quest as potential million sellers in that region.

I'm aware that not many will go out and buy a Switch for Luigi's Mansion specifically but that's my point, most people buy a system for a multitude of reasons, not for a single title.

Wii released in Nov 2006 and had a price cut in Sept 2009 then another one in May 2011 then another one in Oct 2012 then another one in Nov 2013. I have no idea where you are coming up with 5 years for the first price cut.

As for Wii U, it's pretty obvious they never cut its price because it was bleeding money for them and they didnt think a price cut was going to increase sales enough to offset further losses.

 

A few day and date titles announced are Mortal Kombat, Crash Team Racing & Doom Eternal.

The first official price cut for the Wii was on May 15th 2011.

https://www.engadget.com/2011/05/04/nintendo-drops-wii-price-to-150-from-may-15th-throws-in-a-free/

They had it on sale before that, but that's the first time it's MSRP was changed from $199 on release to $149.

Well that's not true at all and a 30 second Google search would have told you that.

And I'm assuming you agree with my other points since you didnt refute any of them.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.