zorg1000 said:
You were talking about 3rd party support being bad so I dont see how "Nintendo games sell alot" is really relevant. Everytime a new major Nintendo IP releases we have people saying Nintendo has released all their system sellers. It happened after launch when people were saying Switch sales would drop because all the hardcore Nintendo fans got one for Zelda. Then it happened again after the holidays when people said that all the Nintendo fans got a Switch in 2017 for Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon & Mario Odyssey. It's happening again now that Pokemon Let's Go and Smash have released and it will happen this time next year after Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion & a new gen Pokemon release. And the thing so many people ignore is the strength of evergreens. Those big games from 2017 were moving consoles in 2018 and the big 2017/2018 games will be moving consoles in 2019. Evergreens and a steady stream of small-medium games can keep sales strong even when there is a drought of major system sellers. A prime example of this is Q1-Q3 of last year when Switch sold 7.25 million with the biggest new release selling like 2 million. Then there is always price cuts and revisions that can and will keep momentum going. And like you said, many 3rd parties have just been safe late ports but this year we are beginning to see more day and date titles and exclusives so I dont see how 3rd party support can in anyway be seen as getting worse. |
I'm talking about system selling games being relevant. The fact that on Nintendo platform they're almost exclusively Nintendo games doesn't negate the important of them. If you want to act like it's a foregone conclusion that this years first party games - that is, Luigi's Mansion, Animal Crossing, Fire Emblem, etc. are going to sell systems like the likes of Mario Kart, Mario Odyssey, Zelda, Smash Bros, Pokemon etc, then please by all means, you're welcome to think that, but you can't exactly blame anyone for seeing that lineup as not the kind of games that going to keep that momentum going.
But that's the thing. Here in 2019. All of those "evergreen" games cost just as much as they did on release, and so does the Switch. There's no real difference to a prospective buyer buying a switch in Fall 2018 than most prospective buyer in Fall 2019 at this point. The prices probably won't be any different, and the games library in terms of those "system sellers" that you don't like hearing will be pretty much the same. It's not like there's been a shortage of Switches. It's not like there's millions of people that are thinking "I'l buy a Switch when Luigi's mansion comes out". It's not the same. And frankly, history doesn't exactly bear out that "evergreen titles" keep selling systems. Evergreen games keep getting bought as most systems are sold, sure, but for example, hardware sales peaked for the Wii after the first three years of it's life, hardware sales basically never peaked for Wii U. How come these "evergreen titles" didn't seem to keep pushing sales at the midway points in those consoles lives? Is there any evidence that a title like Breath of the Wild is still the tipping point that convinces people to buy a Switch in 2018 or 2019? And your evidence of that is using a console that isn't 2 years old? What makes you think those games are going to have the same effect this year or next year? I have no doubt those games will keep selling as millions more buy Switches, but that doesn't mean those switches are being bought in large part because of those games.
As for price cuts, the Wii saw it's first price cut five years after release, the Wii U pretty much never saw one. That just seems unlikely to me to expect the Switch to have one so soon.
What kind of day and date titles are we seeing? From what I can see, there doesn't seem to be anything of note. And I don't think I said it was getting worse, I think I said its going to get worse - and it almost undoubtedly will when the PS5 and Xbox One Two are released. Ports will be even harder to make. That's an objective fact.
