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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 15 December 2018

drinkandswim said:
colafitte said:

So that's why you should expect something like 8-8'5M SOLD TO RETAILERS in Q3 for PS4 and maybe 9-10M SOLD TO CONSUMERS for Switch in Q3. Take into consideration that shipment sales use Fiscal Year for their quarters, so it goes from March to March. 

If PS4 has sold 91'6M to consumers until Dec 31 2018, we should expect around 94-95M PS4 shipped lifetime until then, and if my theory is correct and Switch sells to consumers around 16M during 2018, it means it will be around 29M sold to consumers lifetime at the end of 2018, so probably around 32M shipped for Switch at the end of 2018.

Nintendo is trying to ship almost 38M by the end of March, 20M during end of March 2018- end of March 2019 (Fiscal Year 2018).

Well if they only have 32 million shipped, 38 is not happening in three more months.

32M is my opinion, but that's just mine. Some people here are expecting more than that, around 33-34M, even 35M. So if that happens it could be possible.



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colafitte said:
drinkandswim said:

Well if they only have 32 million shipped, 38 is not happening in three more months.

32M is my opinion, but that's just mine. Some people here are expecting more than that, around 33-34M, even 35M. So if that happens it could be possible.

For sure i think tops 5 million sold in Q4 I am expecting January to be good. 



drinkandswim said:
colafitte said:

32M is my opinion, but that's just mine. Some people here are expecting more than that, around 33-34M, even 35M. So if that happens it could be possible.

For sure i think tops 5 million sold in Q4 I am expecting January to be good. 

I expect 2'5-3M in my case... so we'll see what happens. 

 

Well, i have to go to bed, way late for me here. I wish this info helps you discuss better with anybody here about sales. 



colafitte said:
drinkandswim said:

For sure i think tops 5 million sold in Q4 I am expecting January to be good. 

I expect 2'5-3M in my case... so we'll see what happens. 

 

Well, i have to go to bed, way late for me here. I wish this info helps you discuss better with anybody here about sales. 

2.5M-3M for the quarter? I can see 2 million in January. 



Has the PS4 been adjusted down again? And Switch wasn't in the 400K in Europe too.



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Mandalore76 said:
DonFerrari said:

You can use a regular usb cable and power outlet. You don't need the dock to charge. Also haven't seem the dock standalone yet, thanks to saying it is already being sold.

 

No problem.  It wasn't a secret.  The extra dock has been available in the US since over a year before the "2nd Switch Set" came out in Japan.  I bought a 2nd Dock for my Switch on June 15, 2017.  It was announced on April 17, 2017 for release in May.  The "2nd Switch Set" wasn't announced in Japan until May 23, 2018.  

Also, not using the Dock manufactured by Nintendo has led a number of people bricking their systems trying to charge the Switch with cheaper cables.

Haven't heard of people having issues by just using regular chargers... Does Nintendo give any heads-up on the box or any visible place to not try to charge your Switch without the dock? Because on the videos and idea to play Switch on plane since a lot of trips would outlive Switch battery I was under the impression that was acceptable to use a regular USB outlet.

My PSP, PSVita and controls for PS3 and PS4 all charge normally on usb.

Shore said:
Ganoncrotch said:

Welcome to vgchartz!

 

Thanks!

DonFerrari said:

2M games with Nintendo cut about 30 USD (and mind you they are giving rounded numbers). And you have marketing usually costing about as much as the actual game so sure if you want to go from 20M to 30 or even 40M be my guest, doesn't change the fact that the cost to make BotW (let's not even consider they pushing the launch and making an improved version for Switch, those types of "ineficiencies" doesn't show the real cost to make, but more bloat what should have been used), the costier of Nintendo projects was much lower than regular AAA games.

I'm not arguing that nintendo games have big budgets but i believe that Botw is an exception to that rule considering it's development time (over 4 years) and the amount of people that worked on it (more than 300 according to Eiji Aonuma). That being said i personaly believe that the development costs for the game was something around 60m, excluding marketing, but this is just my guess as we have almost nothing official on the matter.

I agree on BotW that is why I said BotW have a budget similar to other AAA games (not the highest ones, but those are the exception on AAA as well).

The 300 people that worked on it where on constant basis? (GT5 for example had 100 people routinely and 300 depending on the phase of development).

For the development to cost 60M excluding marketing then they would need more than 2M to break even.

PortisheadBiscuit said:
Shore said:

Thanks!

I'm not arguing that nintendo games have big budgets but i believe that Botw is an exception to that rule considering it's development time (over 4 years) and the amount of people that worked on it (more than 300 according to Eiji Aonuma). That being said i personaly believe that the development costs for the game was something around 60m, excluding marketing, but this is just my guess as we have almost nothing official on the matter.

BOTW was 100m to develop

Yes sure, and with marketing cost Nintendo would break even on 2M sold by taking the full 60USD no taxes, cuts and other costs right?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:

Shore said:

Thanks!

I'm not arguing that nintendo games have big budgets but i believe that Botw is an exception to that rule considering it's development time (over 4 years) and the amount of people that worked on it (more than 300 according to Eiji Aonuma). That being said i personaly believe that the development costs for the game was something around 60m, excluding marketing, but this is just my guess as we have almost nothing official on the matter.

I agree on BotW that is why I said BotW have a budget similar to other AAA games (not the highest ones, but those are the exception on AAA as well).

The 300 people that worked on it where on constant basis? (GT5 for example had 100 people routinely and 300 depending on the phase of development).

For the development to cost 60M excluding marketing then they would need more than 2M to break even.


I believe the core team of zelda was around 100 people as well with other people coming and going between development stages, however you have to take into account that nintendo is the developer, publisher and platform holder, this means that the only money they loss on every copy is the retailer share and manufacturing costs, also the source fot the 2m break even mark don't specify if it is just developing costs or if it includes marketing as well. So again just a guess as we have little data on the matter.

Last edited by Shore - on 10 January 2019

Shore said:
DonFerrari said:

I agree on BotW that is why I said BotW have a budget similar to other AAA games (not the highest ones, but those are the exception on AAA as well).

The 300 people that worked on it where on constant basis? (GT5 for example had 100 people routinely and 300 depending on the phase of development).

For the development to cost 60M excluding marketing then they would need more than 2M to break even.


I believe the core team of zelda was around 100 people as well with other people coming and going between development stages, however you have to take into account that nintendo is the developer, publisher and platform holder, this means that the only money they loss on every copy is the retailer share and manufacturing costs, also the source fot the 2m break even mark don't specify if it is just developing costs or if it includes marketing as well. So again just a guess as we have little data on the matter.

Yes 100 core plus 200 floating (not knowing how many) is quite possible considering the scale and they changing for Switch and all the delays.

Well if they are talking just break even then I would likely consider all costs unless they give more detail. And yes their take would be higher than a 3rd party that is why I considered 30 instead of 20.

But anyway it doesn't make that much of difference in the points we are discussing. It isn't a low-end AAA game (10M) nor is the high end (over 100M), and could very well be quite close to GoW. Still unless it is badly managed (I don't think Nintendo suffers from this problem) creating 4k assets, highly realistic materials and textures, highly precise 3D models (and them cutting down to fit processing power) should cost more than more solid color palete with less subtle aspects.

There is a good reason for Indies to not use realistic graphics, they are expensive to produce. And of course I'm not saying Nintendo level of graphics and polish is anywhere near the Indies. Nintendo have best in class cartoon graphics and is highly specialized in it, but as good as it is still pertain on the cheaper side to produce.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

PwerlvlAmy said:
Intrinsic said:

I don't think this has anything to do with nintendo being on top. I think everyone knew that was going to happen. 

This is about the "hybrid" nature f the NS. Handheld vs home console. Its an argument that has been gin on fr as lon as the NS existed and is represented differently by different publications. So its logical that there will be some division even here as t what exactly it is.

This all started with someone pointing out that nintendo has done really well and made a come back and how people said nintendo was dead as far as home consoles go. And then he was told (while not taking anything away from nintendo) that nintendo "is" dead as far as dedicated home consoles go which is why what they have made is a hybrid. 

And now.... apparently not classifying nintendo as a home console somehow means whoever is doing or saying that has some sort of evil agenda or even "hates" nintendo as you put it.

Right. Nintendo isn't dead in the handheld nor console department. That much is a fact ,as you know we have the Switch. So that argument really doesnt make any sense.  Nintendo has done well to come back after what we got with the Wii U and after the sluggish start with the 3DS, so they were correct.  Person that said it was dead as far as home consoles go is just completely wrong as Nintendo has Switch. Switch is a hybrid, the best of what both a home console and handheld can provide a user. It is both a home console and it is also a handheld, that's factual. People tend to pick one or the other to steer an argument in their specific direction for the sake of trying to be right. When the answer is straight forward. There's no hidden mystery.

Honestly I feel the hatred for the Hybrid idea stems from people actually being mad that Nintendo was the one to perfect it first,as far as the big 3 go, and not Microsoft/Sony. That's the vibe I get.  Am I wrong about that? maybe, but it's the opinion i gotta stick with for the time being after seeing responses lately. 

Disagreeing about the hybrid nature of the console doesn't mean that the person hates Nintendo.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


Everytime Switch is discussed here it becomes such personal for some people here that i don't understand it. You become a hater, a downplayer, an usual suspect or you have an agenda of some sorts if you don't align with the opinion of some people here. You end not arguing about the system itself but about the feelings of the posters. SWICH IS A GREAT CONSOLE THAT IS SELLING GREAT. But like with anything in life, we can think different in how good a thing is or why you think is good. Nobody should feel attacked if others feel different about your favorite console.

I consider myself Switch a handheld that can be used as a home console with a big TV, and i find the idea GENIUS for the part of Nintendo but i don't want Sony to copy the idea either. I think it work wonders for Nintendo because that way they can lead where they always did, handhelds, but at the prices of a home console. Like i said, it's genius and the best move Nintendo could have ever done.

If people want to call it a hybrid. It's fine, i can accept it i guess. But to me is a hybrid like one of those amphibious cars they made in Top Gear where they built a car to work in the water....XDDDDD. It worked but everyone with eyes could see it was a car.