In japan last year switch saw a 50% drop and 2016 3ds same, but some people say 24th december sales could help it a bit so maybe around 180k...

Saying that Switch HAS to do 3DS levels of sales just to be 'considered' a success is the definition of goal post moving imo. Just like people saying on twitter in a fight I saw that if PS4 doesnt reach PS2 levels of sales its considered a failure/non success,thats absurd.

Switch is out of control!

Am I the only one impressed by Smash managing to be up WoW on Week 3 ? I think after this performance we might see a more crowded December in 2019

It obviously can be considered a success without even doing Wii levels of sales. PS4 and Switch are doing quite well in a constantly shrinking market.

However, Switch did/will replace both Wii U and 3DS, while the PS4 only replaced the PS3. So people often have lofty expectations. PS5 (hybrid or not) will replace PS4 and PSV next gen so I can definitely foresee similar levels of disappointment.

Not really...From this sub-300.000 result, the 20M goal is now less reachable.

They are doing the same quantity as last year, but they need to do +33%.

Great Switch sales! though it would've been cool if it did 300k+.  Smash increasing from last week and outselling almost every Switch game wih the exception of Splat2n 

Interesting that Super Mario Party is above Pokemon.

Poor DQB2, it did a lot worse than the first game. Switch version really close to the PS4 one.

Absolutely, I have actually been saying this same thing for awhile. 3DS getting a big price cut in year 1 and its first revision in year 2 caused it to have much bigger and earlier peak sales but it also caused it to have an early and harsh decline.

3DS

2011-4.28m

2012-5.50m

2013-4.88m

2014-3.18m

2015-2.35m

2016-1.97m

2017-1.66m

2018-~0.54m

I dont see Switch ever having those monster sales of 2012/2013 that 3DS had but with its announced lineup and potential revision/price cut (both in form of cheaper revision) could lead it to having moderate growth in year 3 and moderate decline in year 4 vs moderate decline and major decline that 3DS had in year 3 and 4 which can help bridge the gap between the two in LTD sales.

I wonder how much Dragon Quest Builders 2 got eaten by the competition. When the first game came out, it was the big release and was up against just about nothing. Of note, Nintendo's big release that week was Mario Tennis for the Wii U. This time around, the sequel had to go up against Smash, Mario Party and Pokemon, all still pulling huge numbers. Makes you wonder if Square Enix would have been smarter to do another January release.

You really think doing 22k more in Japan this week would make any difference?