Japan Sales Week 51 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - December 17-23, 2018

[zorg1000]

drinkandswim said:

zorg1000 said:

I get what you're saying, I just thought was wording was a bit off but I agree with your point overall.

Switch does not need to beat 3DS to be a success, if it sells ~20 million that will be a huge success right there in the NES/SNES/PS1/PS2/GBA/PSP/3DS range (17m-25m)

The other thing people aren't taking into account is that the 3DS launched at $249 and was dropped to $169 after 6 months due to being well below forecasted Sales. Nintendo Switch hasn't undergone a price drop yet. Nintendo 3DS sales include the original 3DS, original 2DS, new 3DS, and New 2DS. PS4 Lifetime Sales include both the original PS4 and the PS4 Pro. So Technically Nintendo Switch's install base is already larger than the PS4. And its tough to compare a $300 system to a $170 system or less. There is a 2DS model I believe as low as $79.99 right now. 

Absolutely, I have actually been saying this same thing for awhile. 3DS getting a big price cut in year 1 and its first revision in year 2 caused it to have much bigger and earlier peak sales but it also caused it to have an early and harsh decline.

3DS

2011-4.28m

2012-5.50m

2013-4.88m

2014-3.18m

2015-2.35m

2016-1.97m

2017-1.66m

2018-~0.54m

I dont see Switch ever having those monster sales of 2012/2013 that 3DS had but with its announced lineup and potential revision/price cut (both in form of cheaper revision) could lead it to having moderate growth in year 3 and moderate decline in year 4 vs moderate decline and major decline that 3DS had in year 3 and 4 which can help bridge the gap between the two in LTD sales.