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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 51 Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - December 17-23, 2018

Clank on 27 December 2018
Eagle367 said:
I feel the last week of switch will be bigger than people expect, especially with 24th in there

yea I think its hard but it could reach 200k making a 1M December for switch in Japan



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tak13 on 27 December 2018
Eagle367 said:
tak13 said:

It's amusing to see people that celebrate so much on npd threads about how much the home and handheld console NS outpaces the handheld console 3ds in the USA, while here they give prominence only to profitability...
Just admit it, ns has a problem in Japan, which in the long run will become more and more visible.
I had warned people to not expect more than 300k in the biggest week for sales, ns simply doesn't have that potential.
Some Japanese people haven't embraced the hybrid nature of ns and the value that this actuality offers unlike the majority of consumers in the west, they view it as an expensive handheld-only console.
Hence, you can't expect 3ds level weekly sales, smash bros just inflated the sales of the previous recent weeks ( you ignored the fact that it was released in the first week of holidays and let that to lead you to wrong conclusions).
Ns lite will come to the rescue!

Wait we are helping the 3ds in US because if we take profitability in the west, the switch just destroys the 3ds. So we are taking the lowest common denoidenomi in both cases and I feel that is being fair. What do you see in that which you think is wrong?

 

The wrong thing is that some people here behave like they won't care at all if NS sells as much as or a bit more than wii in Japan , so half of 3ds ( this is its potential as it is now ) because of the huge amount of profits that it will be making ( which in most cases matter more) , when they exculting on npd threads about sales difference between 3DS and NS.

There is a contradiction!

Last edited by tak13 - on 27 December 2018

tak13 on 27 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
Kerotan said:
We're talking about Japan though not WW

And it can sell below 3DS in Japan and still be a huge success, it will likely sell over 20 million and crack the top 5 best selling gaming systems of all time, it would be foolish to not consider that a success.

I hope that this prediction is with the NS lite in your mind...



drinkandswim on 27 December 2018
tak13 said:
Eagle367 said:

Wait we are helping the 3ds in US because if we take profitability in the west, the switch just destroys the 3ds. So we are taking the lowest common denoidenomi in both cases and I feel that is being fair. What do you see in that which you think is wrong?

 

The wrong thing is that some people here behave like they won't care at all if NS sells as much as or a bit more than wii in Japan , so half of 3ds ( this is its potential as it is now ) because of the huge amount of profits that it will be making ( which in most cases matter more) , when they exculting on npd threads about sales difference between 3DS and NS.

There is a contradiction!

Why would anyone care if it only sells more than the Wii in Japan? That is the price point it is at. But it is outpacing the Wii in Japan and 2019 is set to be Nintendo Switch's biggest year yet. 3DS's lifecycle was 7 years. And there were 4 major revisions with multiple price points. And it was half the price of the Switch within its first 6 months of release. Comparing 3DS to Switch is apples and oranges based on Price Point alone. Price Point is key to widening your base potential. Especially when it comes to the handheld portion of the market.



drinkandswim on 27 December 2018

BTW Nintendo DS launched at $149.99 retail. And a year later it was $129.99. Nintendo Switch is a hybrid and the expectations shouldn't be that it meets handheld market benchmarks. The expectations should be that it falls somewhere between the handheld and console benchmarks, which is what it is on pace to do.



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Miyamotoo on 27 December 2018
tak13 said:

It's amusing to see people that celebrate so much on npd threads about how much the home and handheld console NS outpaces the handheld console 3ds in the USA, while here they give prominence only to profitability...
Just admit it, ns has a problem in Japan, which in the long run will become more and more visible.
I had warned people to not expect more than 300k in the biggest week for sales, ns simply doesn't have that potential.
Some Japanese people haven't embraced the hybrid nature of ns and the value that this actuality offers unlike the majority of consumers in the west, they view it as an expensive handheld-only console.
Hence, you can't expect 3ds level weekly sales, smash bros just inflated the sales of the previous recent weeks ( you ignored the fact that it was released in the first week of holidays and let that to lead you to wrong conclusions).
Ns lite will come to the rescue!

Actually I find it's quite amusing that people think that Switch has problem in Japan, we talking about $300 device that still has launch price point and still not single one revision and despite that Switch has very strong sales in any case. For comparision, 3DS (that sold incredible strong in Japan, and was 3rd best selling handheld/home console ever) in same time period already had huge ass price cut and one revision, also worth mentioning that Switch was selling better in same time period than 3DS until 3DS didn't receive that huge price cut.

Switch sales are strong in Japan, but Switch sales will really explode in Japan when Switch gets to around $200 price point and when people start buying it like device per person like handhelds usually sell in Japan, Switch still has high price point for such a demand and sales.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 27 December 2018

zorg1000 on 27 December 2018
tak13 said:
zorg1000 said:

And it can sell below 3DS in Japan and still be a huge success, it will likely sell over 20 million and crack the top 5 best selling gaming systems of all time, it would be foolish to not consider that a success.

I hope that this prediction is with the NS lite in your mind...

Well of course.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

duduspace1 on 27 December 2018
Miyamotoo said:
tak13 said:

It's amusing to see people that celebrate so much on npd threads about how much the home and handheld console NS outpaces the handheld console 3ds in the USA, while here they give prominence only to profitability...
Just admit it, ns has a problem in Japan, which in the long run will become more and more visible.
I had warned people to not expect more than 300k in the biggest week for sales, ns simply doesn't have that potential.
Some Japanese people haven't embraced the hybrid nature of ns and the value that this actuality offers unlike the majority of consumers in the west, they view it as an expensive handheld-only console.
Hence, you can't expect 3ds level weekly sales, smash bros just inflated the sales of the previous recent weeks ( you ignored the fact that it was released in the first week of holidays and let that to lead you to wrong conclusions).
Ns lite will come to the rescue!

Actually I find it's quite amusing that people think that Switch has problem in Japan, we talking about $300 device that still has launch price point and still not single one revision and despite that Switch has very strong sales in any case. For comparision, 3DS (that sold incredible strong in Japan, and was 3rd best selling handheld/home console ever) in same time period already had huge ass price cut and one revision, also worth mentioning that Switch was selling better in same time period than 3DS until 3DS didn't receive huge price cut.

Switch sales are strong in Japan, but Switch sales will really explode in Japan when Switch gets to around $200 price point and when people start buying it like device per person.

Exactly, what Tak13 hasn't fully factored in is what would happen when price cuts finally bring the Switch nearer to HandHeld price points. This is the first Hybrid and its sales curve is very likely to exhibit some unusual behaviours.

He is right though in saying the Switch at present doesn't look like it would be close to the 3DS in sales but that also should be expected to some extent. Right now, majority of people aren't buying it as a per person device in Japan.......and even in most of the West. I think the Switch still has quite a few surprises in store for many sales observers.

The main thing for Nintendo is their answer to the question, when does the Switch get its Price Cut to get that fine balance between Revenue and acceleration in Sales when it just about starts to slow down.



xAcEx on 27 December 2018
Eagle367 said:

From Canada and don't understand how I can buy shares from Nintendo. Any help will be appreciated


There are serevall options. You can directly buy on the Tokio Exchange in Yen, OTC with the Symbol  NTDOY in USD. I bought it in Germany at Tradegate in Euro.

So it depends what options your Bank or Broker give to you. 



zorg1000 on 27 December 2018
tak13 said:
Eagle367 said:

Wait we are helping the 3ds in US because if we take profitability in the west, the switch just destroys the 3ds. So we are taking the lowest common denoidenomi in both cases and I feel that is being fair. What do you see in that which you think is wrong?

 

The wrong thing is that some people here behave like they won't care at all if NS sells as much as or a bit more than wii in Japan , so half of 3ds ( this is its potential as it is now ) because of the huge amount of profits that it will be making ( which in most cases matter more) , when they exculting on npd threads about sales difference between 3DS and NS.

There is a contradiction!

People can be happy that it outsells 3DS in the West while also saying it's fine if it sells less than 3DS in Japan. These things do not contradict each other.

Also show me one person who said anything about Switch selling as low as Wii in Japan because it's already on pace to destroy Wii sales there.

Wii

2007-3.69m

2008-2.86m (-23%)

2009-2.13m (-26%)

2010-1.51m (-29%)

 

NSW

2017-3.31m

2018-~3.54m (+7%)

 

Look at Wii, it started out strong and had an amazing first year but it was short lived and had a steady decline in years 2, 3 & 4. Switch is having the opposite trajectory, it had a really good first year followed by a slightly better 2nd year and with games like Animal Crossing, Pokemon Gen 8, Fire Emblem, Yokai Watch, Dragon Quest XI, etc and a potential price cut/revision, its 3rd year should see an improvement and a much less severe drop in year 4. Switch is going to blow Wii out of the water in Japan.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.