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JRPGfan said:

By end of feburary if the UK goes at its current pace (which it cannot, lacks vaccines to do so), it should hit around 13,1m vaccinations.
That amounts to roughly 19-20% of their population.

HOWEVER....

The UK decided to only give people HALF of the vaccinations they needed.
They only get the first shot, and not the 2nd booster part.

This means UK will have 13m people  (~20% of pop) with around 40-48% immunity.

That isnt by any means perfect.



In denmark, we re giveing both the first shot + the 2nd one.
So while we re only at like 3,5% of our population (right now), by end of feb, we might be like ~10%.


Whats best?
10% thats 95%+ immune to covid?

Or

20% thats 40-48% immune to covid?


Also note, that partial immunity (but not anywhere near fully so) will lead to high risk of mutation of covid, that then becomes more and more resistant to the vaccine.

We are giving 2 doses. We changed the limit for the 2nd shot from within 3 weeks to within 12. Anecdotally, the 2 people I know over 80 have both had 2 shots and of the three 70-80yr olds i know, one has had both shots and the other two have appointments booked for the 2nd within 3 weeks of their first.

Some protection is better than none. Lockdowns reduce the chance of mutation and I don't see it ending before April.

The last 2 days have daily vaxes at just under 500k and capacity continues to be added so we should be at 70% well before August.

Not sure where you get the idea that we don't have enough vaccines.

It also looks at though we are going to need a hard border in Ireland if the Republic is still infected/vulnerable. Maybe if they rejoined the UK, they could get their vax and have their freedom back.

Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 24 January 2021

Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

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Most countries are still vaccinating people in nursing homes which is really slow since mobile vaccination teams need to drive to these locations and can only treat a limited amount of people.
Once people are allowed to visit vaccination centers, averages will rise fast.

UK started on Dec 8th. On Jan 3rd, they reached 1.38m administered doses. (27 days)
Most EU countries started on Dec 27th. On Jan 22nd (27 days), Germany had 1.63m, Spain 1.17m, Italy 1.32m.

VERY similar numbers. (Many) EU countries are on the same pace as the UK. For that reason the "Expected month when 70 percent of adults target would be reached" column is complete bullshit. If the UK is August 2021, then (many) EU countries will be September 2021.



Barozi said:

Most countries are still vaccinating people in nursing homes which is really slow since mobile vaccination teams need to drive to these locations and can only treat a limited amount of people.
Once people are allowed to visit vaccination centers, averages will rise fast.

UK started on Dec 8th. On Jan 3rd, they reached 1.38m administered doses. (27 days)
Most EU countries started on Dec 27th. On Jan 22nd (27 days), Germany had 1.63m, Spain 1.17m, Italy 1.32m.

VERY similar numbers. (Many) EU countries are on the same pace as the UK. For that reason the "Expected month when 70 percent of adults target would be reached" column is complete bullshit. If the UK is August 2021, then (many) EU countries will be September 2021.

We've done 5.5m in the 21 days since 3rd Jan. It's difficult to see how EU countries can reach those numbers in the next 3 weeks when the Oxford vaccine still hasn't been cleared for use yet.

I agree the '70% target' is a bit silly.

Last edited by Pyro as Bill - on 25 January 2021

Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

I'm no expert but I don't see the point in using the AstraZeneca vaccine right now.

They should use the more effective vaccines for risk groups where every infection could end up deadly and then (maybe) use the cheaper AstraZeneca vaccine for the non-elderly.



Pyro as Bill said:
JRPGfan said:

....

....

*edit:
Ontop of alot of these fishing boats, makeing a liveing by selling to markets that relied on resturants ect.
Demand is low.....  Covid19 (closed resturants) + brexit, could kill alot of the UKs fishing industry.

Advantages and disadvantages. Gotta take the rough with the smooth.

Don't forget about the predicted gonorrhea outbreak that brexit would cause, it is very important to later make an assessment how big it was to compared to the predictions. 



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Barozi said:

I'm no expert but I don't see the point in using the AstraZeneca vaccine right now.

They should use the more effective vaccines for risk groups where every infection could end up deadly and then (maybe) use the cheaper AstraZeneca vaccine for the non-elderly.

Its extremely less expensive and extremely easier to store, basically a normal fridge can store it which helps to create more jabs centers. Also the efficacy is enough to contain the virus if everyone is vaccinated. Also it is easier to get the supply. On top of that I read some news that Israel may have some suspicious that the pfizer vaccine is not as effective as advertised, but this is under the "conspiracy theory" realm at the moment.



Pyro as Bill said:

We are giving 2 doses. We changed the limit for the 2nd shot from within 3 weeks to within 12. Anecdotally, the 2 people I know over 80 have both had 2 shots and of the three 70-80yr olds i know, one has had both shots and the other two have appointments booked for the 2nd within 3 weeks of their first.

Some protection is better than none. Lockdowns reduce the chance of mutation and I don't see it ending before April.

The last 2 days have daily vaxes at just under 500k and capacity continues to be added so we should be at 70% well before August.

Not sure where you get the idea that we don't have enough vaccines.

It also looks at though we are going to need a hard border in Ireland if the Republic is still infected/vulnerable. Maybe if they rejoined the UK, they could get their vax and have their freedom back.

From when is that table?

For the record, as of Friday, Luxembourg distributed 6897 vaccines, with over 700 vaccinations a day now.

The first phase is over, where the most vulnerable persons got their 2 shots. Phase 2 has started last Monday, hence why all of those from Friday were just the first shot. This phase is for the healthcare workers. In both cases, the vaccines are distributed a bit slower on purpose (mobile vaccinations in retirement homes take much more time, and imagine all healthcare workers potentially feeling sick for a couple days at the same time), and will only go full speed starting phase 3, when the general population will get their vaccines. By then, we're expected to go to 4000-5000 vaccines per day, so we could be done in summer

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 25 January 2021

The AstraZeneca vaccine is definitely much cheaper but at this point that doesn't matter at all. We're long past the buying process.
It's much easier to store compared to the Biontech vaccine, true but the Moderna vaccine can be stored in a regular freezer, so that's only a slight advantage.

btw. I think this is getting off-topic.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

From when is that table?

For the record, as of Friday, Luxembourg distributed 6897 vaccines, with over 700 vaccinations a day now.

The first phase is over, where the most vulnerable persons got their 2 shots. Phase 2 has started last Monday, hence why all of those from Friday were just the first shot. This phase is for the healthcare workers. In both cases, the vaccines are distributed a bit slower on purpose (mobile vaccinations in retirement homes take much more time, and imagine all healthcare workers potentially feeling sick for a couple days at the same time), and will only go full speed starting phase 3, when the general population will get their vaccines. By then, we're expected to go to 4000-5000 vaccines per day, so we could be done in summer

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=GBR~LUX~FRA~DEU&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations&pickerSort=desc

7 day average using most recent data.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

From when is that table?

For the record, as of Friday, Luxembourg distributed 6897 vaccines, with over 700 vaccinations a day now.

The first phase is over, where the most vulnerable persons got their 2 shots. Phase 2 has started last Monday, hence why all of those from Friday were just the first shot. This phase is for the healthcare workers. In both cases, the vaccines are distributed a bit slower on purpose (mobile vaccinations in retirement homes take much more time, and imagine all healthcare workers potentially feeling sick for a couple days at the same time), and will only go full speed starting phase 3, when the general population will get their vaccines. By then, we're expected to go to 4000-5000 vaccines per day, so we could be done in summer

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=GBR~LUX~FRA~DEU&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=smoothed&smoothing=7&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations&pickerSort=desc

7 day average using most recent data.

Thanks for that link