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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

Miyamotoo on 17 December 2018

Also talking about potential FY 2019. sales compared to FY 2018. sales, all point that Switch will do at least 18m+ in FY 2018,
with just already confirmed Nintendo games for FY 2019. (and thats not hole FY 2019. lineup) FY already look stronger than FY 2018. was, almost certain offical price cut to $250m and very possible revision, there is no way that FY 2019. can have lower sales than FY 2018. it would be huge surprise if Switch dont sell more in any case than it will do in FY 2018.



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thegamerpad on 17 December 2018
Shadow1980 said:
zorg1000 said:

I'm sure Nintendo is going to refrain from price cuts as much as possible but it would still be very, very unlikely to not see a price cut or lower cost revision in its 3rd full fiscal year (April 2019-March 2020).

If I recall, @Shadow1980 explained recently that no console has ever gone past the third full fiscal year without a price cut with the majority happening in the 1st or 2nd meaning it would be unprecedented for Switch not to receive either a price cut to the current model or a cheaper revision next year.

The Wii was the only console to not get a price cut by the end of its second full calendar year (counting launch year as Year 1 for Q1 launches). The longest gaps between launch and the first price cut are as follows:

Wii: 34 months
PS4: 23 months
360: 21 months
NS: 20 months (and counting...)
PS2: 19 months

Every other home console in the past four generations had a price cut within 12 months or less.

The Wii was already selling well enough at $250 in its first couple of years that it didn't really warrant a price cut. Even with supply constraints, it was posting big numbers, and when supply improved its sales grew (the only time a console experienced significant growth without the benefit of a price cut). In Q2 2009 sales started to slow down a lot, and Nintendo issued the cut to $200 in September that year.

The Wii U didn't get a price cut within 12 months.  It needed it too!!



Mbolibombo on 17 December 2018
thegamerpad said:
Shadow1980 said:

The Wii was the only console to not get a price cut by the end of its second full calendar year (counting launch year as Year 1 for Q1 launches). The longest gaps between launch and the first price cut are as follows:

Wii: 34 months
PS4: 23 months
360: 21 months
NS: 20 months (and counting...)
PS2: 19 months

Every other home console in the past four generations had a price cut within 12 months or less.

The Wii was already selling well enough at $250 in its first couple of years that it didn't really warrant a price cut. Even with supply constraints, it was posting big numbers, and when supply improved its sales grew (the only time a console experienced significant growth without the benefit of a price cut). In Q2 2009 sales started to slow down a lot, and Nintendo issued the cut to $200 in September that year.

The Wii U didn't get a price cut within 12 months.  It needed it too!!

Wii U got a pricecut in September 2013. 



Miyamotoo on 17 December 2018
Mbolibombo said:
thegamerpad said:

The Wii U didn't get a price cut within 12 months.  It needed it too!!

Wii U got a pricecut in September 2013. 

Well at launch lowest price point for Wii U was $299, after that price cut also lowest price point what $299, difference is that Deluxe model received Base model price point while base model was discontinued, but you didnt had lower price point than $299 in any case.



zorg1000 on 17 December 2018
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

The thing I don't understand is that you agree with those estimates I gave yet still think it will fall behind 3DS at some point, just exactly when will that be?

Those estimates I gave put it at 62-73 million, let's split it down the middle and say 67.5 million for convenience sake, that's a 15 million lead.

That's roughly 10 million away from where 3DS will end up at so you think it will go from 12+ million in the 4th full fiscal year to under 10 million in years 5 and beyond? A time period in which 3DS will sell ~25 million.

I'm sorry but the math just doesnt add up to me.

My own personal estimate fr the NS was originally 50M. Then after its first year on the market I took it up to 65M. The 3DS is at 73M now... lets round that up to 75M. 

I don't believe the NS will sell more than 75M. Plus or minus 5M. S worst case scenario 70M best case 80M. 

It doesn't have to fall behind the 3DS to sell a total of 75M. Especially when you consider that it took the 3DS 7+ yrs to get there. The NS can do it in just over 6yrs all the while tracking ahead of the 3DS. 

I won't be surprised though if nintendo pulls out something like a Switch+ around 2022/2023 and call that a revision but that have its wn games that cant run of the current switch. They have done this before.  

It does eventually have to fall behind 3DS to sell less than 75 million, you just agreed with me that year 4 will sell 12+ million putting LTD at ~67.5 million by March 2021. Do you realize how big of a drop it would need to have to miss 75 million?

These are the median numbers for the estimates I gave (estimates you just agreed with)

2.74m

15.05m

FY19-18.5m (LTD 36.5m)

FY20-17.5m (LTD 54.0m)

FY21-13.5m (LTD 67.5m)

How big of a drop are you expecting at that point?

FY22-6.0m (LTD 73.5m)

FY23-1.5m (LTD 75m)

That's a 55% drop followed by a 75% drop for FY 5 & 6 which I believe would be the most significant drops for any successful platform.

Not even Wii or GBA had nearly that bad of declines and Wii is known for having a harsh decline while GBA was replaced in its 4th fiscal year.



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DonFerrari on 17 December 2018
derpysquirtle64 said:
DonFerrari said:

Sure I understand. But please tell me what kind of turn around in sales make you go from outselling aligned to trailing behind.

The thing here is that XB1 selling a bit better than 360 wasn't a good thing from the start. It is not something you would expect from a console which already has a big established fanbase. Something, 360 didn't have. Also it is hard to predict total sales of 360 if Kinect wasn't a thing. Would it be possible for it to hit that 85m mark? I wouldn't say for sure. And about turn around which you always mention - being up/flat YoY in 5th year when your main more popular rival is down and you also have another one which is very successful and the next big thing is something you wouldn't expect without some work made on the console image. If Xbox team hadn't work hard to improve their image somehow they would definitely have dropped significantly.

X1 have been losing ground to PS4 ever since the launch, the percentage gap increased continuously to the point MS stopped giving numbers and started giving MAUS to save face.

The reason for the flat sales for the last couple years is that they fucked up one year with X1X announcement being to premature (year prior to X1X), then with X1X launch at the end of the year they equalized the previous year (X1X year), and because the first half of the X1X year was very bad they again were able to see "growth" YOY until nearing X1X launch.

PS4 not making those silly situations had regular increase, ceiling and decrease of sales.

When you turn around sales you don't increase the gap you are losing by.

Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

I'm sure Nintendo is going to refrain from price cuts as much as possible but it would still be very, very unlikely to not see a price cut or lower cost revision in its 3rd full fiscal year (April 2019-March 2020).

If I recall, @Shadow1980 explained recently that no console has ever gone past the third full fiscal year without a price cut with the majority happening in the 1st or 2nd meaning it would be unprecedented for Switch not to receive either a price cut to the current model or a cheaper revision next year.

So to go back to whether or not Switch will pass 3DS, its launch and first 4 full fiscal years were

3.61m

13.53m (price cut)

13.95m (revision)

12.24m (lower cost revision)

8.73m (premium revision)

Total-52.06m

 

3DS needed a price reduction/revision each year to maintain momentum or soften the decline.

Switch's first full fiscal year had a 1.5m lead over 3DS, if Switch hits its 2nd full year goal (could very well miss) it will extend that lead by 6 million. With a price cut/revision next year, any potential decline will be pretty minimal so it will once again extend the lead by a few million. At that point it would need a nearly 50% YoY decline (unprecedented) to not continue to extend the lead in the 4th full fiscal year.

Here are my rough estimates for Switch's launch and first 4 full fiscal years

2.74m

15.05m

17-20m

15-20m

12-15m

Total, 62-73m

 

By the end of the 4th full fiscal Switch should have an accumulated lead over 3DS by 10-20 million which will be very hard for 3DS to bounce back from.

Yes I am aware that hardware always sees some sort of price revision within the first 3 years. But nintendo really seems to be against price drops. Hell it took 3 years before it dropped the price of the Wii by $50. They would sooner bundle the system with a game than cut the price, this is just going off how nintendo has always been.

The 3DS was an exception because that needed a price drop to spur sales as it was selling way below expectations. Not the case with the NS. I don't know, I just believe we live in a very different world today than we did at the time a lot f people are drawing their conclusions from. Now revenue generated from an existing user base seems to have taken priority over the raw size of a user base. Even nintendo is now doing the whole online service thing too.

The way I see it, we will see bundles instead of price drops or revisions offering "more power and/or larger batteries/ storage at the same price point" before we start seeing $199 NS in the wild.  Unless sales start to drop. And before any of this happens nintendo will also want to release a number of their big IPs at this current price point to see how much of an effect that will have on sales.

I agree with your estimates though... but I dont believe it will have more than one 20M selling year. Especially when you consider that its best shot at having a 20M selling year at probably a reduced price is on or before a year when 2 new consoles would be released. Thats a lot of media attention taken away from the NS.  

Not always. GC had several consecutive pricecuts and that didn't improve their situation much. That is suspected to be the reason why they didn't continuosly cutted WiiU.

Miyamotoo said:

LT numbers will heavily depend from number of Switch revision, Nintendo support, life time of console and time until most likely Switch 2 don't arrives on market.
Just look how much revisions 3DS has and how much long Nintendo support 3DS, look how PS4 and XB1 received mid gen upgraded and how that effected on sales for them in later years on market.

People tend to forget couple of things about Switch:


-Switch is essentially handheld hardware and like that will have multiple different price point revisions that will effect on sales and llife span of platform (similar to 3DS just with stronger sales per years)
-Switch has hybrid concept and be used like real home console or like real handheld, so it selling to both home console and handheld lowers
-Switch is Nintendo unified platform, that means all Nintendo IPs (handheld and home console), all Nintendo focus and undivided support just for one platform, and that means much stronger support in any case (I dont talk only about 1st party game support, but also about 3rd party exclusive deals, planning, marketing..)
-Nintendo itself said they want Switch to have longer life span than usual 5-6 years on market (they clarly dont want to repeat Wii situation when they had couple of great years and where they lifted support and sales died too soon)
-Compared to just home console, Switch can sell like device per person (Wii couldnt that), Nintendo said they ultimate goal with Switch is to sell like device per person but also that current price point ($300) is still not there for something like that (they will need around $200 for such a sales).
-Switch is selling great despite still didnt had not single price cut or revision that always boost sales in any case

With all that on mind, Switch potential for for sales is huge, Switch can easily become best selling Nintendo platform after DS, and bare minimum that Switch will hit is 80m+ and in order to Switch hit just around 80m and not much more than that would need that some Nintendo plans go very wrong.

So I cant understand people that saying that their 80m projection is optimistic, or even less people that saying that Switch will hit similar to 3DS numbers, I mean Switch will be only after 2 years on market at almost half of that number (80m).

I'll tag for future reference that Switch will be their second most successful platform. So they need to cross 119M to win over GameBoy.



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Intrinsic on 17 December 2018
zorg1000 said:

It does eventually have to fall behind 3DS to sell less than 75 million, you just agreed with me that year 4 will sell 12+ million putting LTD at ~67.5 million by March 2021. Do you realize how big of a drop it would need to have to miss 75 million?

These are the median numbers for the estimates I gave (estimates you just agreed with)

2.74m

15.05m

FY19-18.5m (LTD 36.5m)

FY20-17.5m (LTD 54.0m)

FY21-13.5m (LTD 67.5m)

How big of a drop are you expecting at that point?

FY22-6.0m (LTD 73.5m)

FY23-1.5m (LTD 75m)

That's a 55% drop followed by a 75% drop for FY 5 & 6 which I believe would be the most significant drops for any successful platform.

Not even Wii or GBA had nearly that bad of declines and Wii is known for having a harsh decline while GBA was replaced in its 4th fiscal year.

I did say plus or minus 5M. So my ceiling is actually 80M. But to keep thins interesting I am using the 3DS as my marker.

And saying I agree with your numbers doesn't mean I agree with everything literally. Like i would replace FY19 18.5M with 17M and FY 20 with 16M.

80M is my ceiling. What I am expecting is really around 75M by the time the next Switch is released. 



colafitte on 17 December 2018
SKMBlake said:
colafitte said:

You say there are pessimistics, plural. Pessimistic is expecting more than 80M Switch sold by the end of its lifetime?. Really, how many people here have said that Switch is going to sell less than 3DS or less than 80M lifetime?? But i don't hear anything about the people expecting 100M+ sales for the Switch...What are those posters then, optimistics??, or just realistics?.

People are taking for granted how difficult is to sell 80M+ home consoles i think...... (home console price i mean so people don't come at me saying is an hybrid console)

Did you really quote me for one word despite all the things I said after that word ?

Sorry if i sounded rude. It was late where i live and i needed to go to bed and i was in a hurry because i really wanted  to ask you that question and see if today there was a answer. I don't disagree or agree in general in what you said and i respect your opinion, but i have to say i really think there was games like the Skyrims or the Warframes of 10 years ago on Wii like Call of Duty Black Ops Wii that sold 1M too on Wii i think.



colafitte on 17 December 2018
zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

My own personal estimate fr the NS was originally 50M. Then after its first year on the market I took it up to 65M. The 3DS is at 73M now... lets round that up to 75M. 

I don't believe the NS will sell more than 75M. Plus or minus 5M. S worst case scenario 70M best case 80M. 

It doesn't have to fall behind the 3DS to sell a total of 75M. Especially when you consider that it took the 3DS 7+ yrs to get there. The NS can do it in just over 6yrs all the while tracking ahead of the 3DS. 

I won't be surprised though if nintendo pulls out something like a Switch+ around 2022/2023 and call that a revision but that have its wn games that cant run of the current switch. They have done this before.  

It does eventually have to fall behind 3DS to sell less than 75 million, you just agreed with me that year 4 will sell 12+ million putting LTD at ~67.5 million by March 2021. Do you realize how big of a drop it would need to have to miss 75 million?

These are the median numbers for the estimates I gave (estimates you just agreed with)

2.74m

15.05m

FY19-18.5m (LTD 36.5m)

FY20-17.5m (LTD 54.0m)

FY21-13.5m (LTD 67.5m)

How big of a drop are you expecting at that point?

FY22-6.0m (LTD 73.5m)

FY23-1.5m (LTD 75m)

That's a 55% drop followed by a 75% drop for FY 5 & 6 which I believe would be the most significant drops for any successful platform.

Not even Wii or GBA had nearly that bad of declines and Wii is known for having a harsh decline while GBA was replaced in its 4th fiscal year.

If you really believe in your meridian projections, they are not so different than mine, like i said earlier in this thread:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/dev2016/post.php?id=8938930

"end of 2017 13M, end of 2018 29M, end of 2019 46M, end of 2020 59M, end of 2021 69M, end of 2022 77M. After it probably will have another year selling around the same and by 2024 Nintendo will probably be launching the successor. So by then, and after 7 years on the market the Switch will be around 85M."

And in my case i was talking about sales, not shipments, so add around 2M each figure to get actual FY shipment predictions.

By FY22 we expect similar numbers then....You're very close to the pessimistic side zorg....

But i guess no one here paid attention at what i said then....

Last edited by colafitte - on 17 December 2018

Miyamotoo on 17 December 2018
DonFerrari said:

Miyamotoo said:

LT numbers will heavily depend from number of Switch revision, Nintendo support, life time of console and time until most likely Switch 2 don't arrives on market.
Just look how much revisions 3DS has and how much long Nintendo support 3DS, look how PS4 and XB1 received mid gen upgraded and how that effected on sales for them in later years on market.

People tend to forget couple of things about Switch:


-Switch is essentially handheld hardware and like that will have multiple different price point revisions that will effect on sales and llife span of platform (similar to 3DS just with stronger sales per years)
-Switch has hybrid concept and be used like real home console or like real handheld, so it selling to both home console and handheld lowers
-Switch is Nintendo unified platform, that means all Nintendo IPs (handheld and home console), all Nintendo focus and undivided support just for one platform, and that means much stronger support in any case (I dont talk only about 1st party game support, but also about 3rd party exclusive deals, planning, marketing..)
-Nintendo itself said they want Switch to have longer life span than usual 5-6 years on market (they clarly dont want to repeat Wii situation when they had couple of great years and where they lifted support and sales died too soon)
-Compared to just home console, Switch can sell like device per person (Wii couldnt that), Nintendo said they ultimate goal with Switch is to sell like device per person but also that current price point ($300) is still not there for something like that (they will need around $200 for such a sales).
-Switch is selling great despite still didnt had not single price cut or revision that always boost sales in any case

With all that on mind, Switch potential for for sales is huge, Switch can easily become best selling Nintendo platform after DS, and bare minimum that Switch will hit is 80m+ and in order to Switch hit just around 80m and not much more than that would need that some Nintendo plans go very wrong.

So I cant understand people that saying that their 80m projection is optimistic, or even less people that saying that Switch will hit similar to 3DS numbers, I mean Switch will be only after 2 years on market at almost half of that number (80m).

I'll tag for future reference that Switch will be their second most successful platform. So they need to cross 119M to win over GameBoy.

Oh, I forget about GB/GBC combined numbers, I was having on mind passing Wii numbers (101m).

 

Intrinsic said: 
zorg1000 said: 

It does eventually have to fall behind 3DS to sell less than 75 million, you just agreed with me that year 4 will sell 12+ million putting LTD at ~67.5 million by March 2021. Do you realize how big of a drop it would need to have to miss 75 million?

These are the median numbers for the estimates I gave (estimates you just agreed with)

2.74m

15.05m

FY19-18.5m (LTD 36.5m)

FY20-17.5m (LTD 54.0m)

FY21-13.5m (LTD 67.5m)

How big of a drop are you expecting at that point?

FY22-6.0m (LTD 73.5m)

FY23-1.5m (LTD 75m)

That's a 55% drop followed by a 75% drop for FY 5 & 6 which I believe would be the most significant drops for any successful platform.

Not even Wii or GBA had nearly that bad of declines and Wii is known for having a harsh decline while GBA was replaced in its 4th fiscal year.

I did say plus or minus 5M. So my ceiling is actually 80M. But to keep thins interesting I am using the 3DS as my marker.

And saying I agree with your numbers doesn't mean I agree with everything literally. Like i would replace FY19 18.5M with 17M and FY 20 with 16M.

80M is my ceiling. What I am expecting is really around 75M by the time the next Switch is released. 

But you do realise that Switch only around 1st two years on market would be at around 50% of those numbers?