| zorg1000 said: It does eventually have to fall behind 3DS to sell less than 75 million, you just agreed with me that year 4 will sell 12+ million putting LTD at ~67.5 million by March 2021. Do you realize how big of a drop it would need to have to miss 75 million? These are the median numbers for the estimates I gave (estimates you just agreed with) 2.74m 15.05m FY19-18.5m (LTD 36.5m) FY20-17.5m (LTD 54.0m) FY21-13.5m (LTD 67.5m) How big of a drop are you expecting at that point? FY22-6.0m (LTD 73.5m) FY23-1.5m (LTD 75m) That's a 55% drop followed by a 75% drop for FY 5 & 6 which I believe would be the most significant drops for any successful platform. Not even Wii or GBA had nearly that bad of declines and Wii is known for having a harsh decline while GBA was replaced in its 4th fiscal year. |
I did say plus or minus 5M. So my ceiling is actually 80M. But to keep thins interesting I am using the 3DS as my marker.
And saying I agree with your numbers doesn't mean I agree with everything literally. Like i would replace FY19 18.5M with 17M and FY 20 with 16M.
80M is my ceiling. What I am expecting is really around 75M by the time the next Switch is released.
